SSP Daily Digest: 7/30

  • CO-Sen: Andrew Romanoff has launched a new TV ad (a Joe Trippi Production), accusing Sen. Michael Bennet of “pushing companies into bankruptcy” while working for corporate raider (and right-wing zillionaire) Phil Anschutz. Bennet claims that his work for Anschutz Investments actually saved foundering movie theater chains from going out of business. Anyhow, NWOTSOTB.
  • CT-Sen: Politico’s Shira Toeplitz talked to a bunch of bigtime Rob Simmons supporters (including ex-Rep. and all-time SSP enemy Nancy Johnson), all of whom seem to be fairly down on his chances at pulling off his weird comeback attempt against Linda McMahon. Simmons also told Politico that his internal polling matching a recent Quinnipiac survey, which had him down 52-25 in the primary, but wouldn’t release any further details. So really, what’s he doing? P.S. Linda McMahon’s personal spending on the race is already up to $23 million.
  • FL-Gov: Obama alert! The POTUS will be doing a fundraiser with gubernatorial candidate Alex Sink in Miami Beach on August 18th. No word on whether he’ll also help out Kendrick Meek. (Extremely eagle-eyed digesters of the digest will note that the Sink event is planned for the same day as a Ted Strickland fundraiser. Busy guy!)
  • IA-Gov: Heh. Former Gov. Terry Branstad’s campaign is in trubba because it purchased two vehicles, including a $52K Winnebago – something that isn’t kosher, on account of a state law which requires that campaigns lease, not buy. This is an amusing bust, because the law in question was passed when Branstad was governor – on account of a previous campaign of his purchasing a van for less than half its market value. This reminds me of when Chicken Lady (seems like so long ago!) received an improper donation of a $100,000 RV from a supporter. Ah, good times!
  • KY-Gov: Businessman Phil Moffett, managing partner of the telecommunications management company CCS Partners, is the first Republican candidate to enter the race against Dem Gov. Steve Beshear. Moffett says he’s going after the teabagger vote, but he’s been a big proponent of the stimulus-funded “Race to the Top” education bill, which makes me think he’ll be anathema to the tribalist wing of the Republican Party. Anyhow, plenty more candidates wait in the wings for this race, which is not until 2011.
  • NV-Gov: Nevada Republican gubernatorial candidate is now claiming to have had an out-of-body experience, claiming he doesn’t remember telling Univision that he wasn’t worried about his kids getting profiled in Arizona because they “don’t look Hispanic.” Sandoval’s exact, uh, apology: “If I did say those words, it was wrong and I sincerely regret it.” So deeply weird.
  • NC-11: Memo to media: Message-testing polls are totally normal and fair game in any campaign. So Heath Shuler is testing out attacks on Republican Jeff Miller – he’d be negligent if he didn’t do so. Not news. (At least no one called it a “push poll.”)
  • NH-01, NH-02: Dean Barker at Blue Hampshire is one of my favorite state bloggers, so you should just go read what he has to say about UNH’s new poll of NH-01 and NH-02. As for the toplines (PDF), in NH-01, Rep. Carol Shea-Porter leads all comers (April trendlines in parens): Frank Guinta 44-39 (38-42); Rich Ashooh 43-35 (36-39); Sean Mahoney 45-36 (37-40); and Bob Bestani 44-33 (37-38). In NH-02, it’s Ann McLane Kuster 29, Charlie Bass 47 (30-42); Kuster 32, Jennifer Horn 34 (32-33); Katrina Swett 30, Bass 47; Swett 31, Horn 35 (31-35).
  • NY-13: Just ugh.
  • NY-15: Alright, the whip count is definitely winding down. Paul Hodes is now the latest to call on Charlie Rangel to resign, in the wake of formal ethics charges being announced against the veteran New York congressman. And Joe Sestak has returned Rangel’s campaign contributions. At this point, I think pretty much everyone is gonna have to do that, so it’s going to get pretty boring. Anyhow, of more direct relevance, CQ points out that it’s now probably too late for Rangel to take his name off the September primary ballot, even if he wanted to. I wonder if he can still win re-election, somehow.
  • TN-08: It sounds like the NRCC is trying to game expectations with regard to Steve Fincher, their golden boy in the race to replace John Tanner. Fincher’s been caught in a mega-multi-million dollar three-way fight, with Ron Kirkland and George Flinn beating up on him and each other. An NRCC flack says that Fincher “probably has the edge,” but then immediately contradicts himself by saying a Fincher victory would be “against all odds” and that “anything can happen in primaries.” I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he lost in the primary next week (which, please note, is on a Thursday). Also important: Tennessee is the rare Southern state which does not feature runoffs.
  • DSCC/DCCC: God, pieces like this are just too depressing for me at this point. The Hill rounds up a pretty large list of retiring lawmakers who are still sitting on monster cash hoards. I mean, what the fuck is up with guys like Bill Delahunt? Says The Hill: “But Delahunt said there are competing political interests that need the money, and he’ll decide how to spend it when the time is right.” Shit, do I even need to say that the time is right… right now? Sigh.
  • Moose Lady: Heh again. The Washington Post has a special page devoted to tracking the Mama Grizzly-in-Chief’s endorsements. It even has helpful logos for each candidate denoting whether they are “Establishment” or teabaggers. Anyhow, so far, Palin has 10 wins to 4 losses, with a bunch more races in the works.
  • Site News: The Swing State Project just welcomed its nine millionth visitor! We passed the 8,000,000 milestone just four months ago, which I think makes this our quickest million ever. Help us celebrate by getting to 600 fans on Facebook (we need 22 more) and 2,500 followers on Twitter (45 more)!
  • 144 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 7/30”

    1. Well, Jefferson managed to win re-election once, against a Democrat when we had a golden opportunity to throw him out and still save the seat, so I think it’s entirely possible that folks who Rangel served well for many years would still vote for him.  I hope he resigns, or at least announces he won’t accept another term, since I think this would be the best thing overall.  Otherwise, I hope he loses his primary.

      While he may not be able to take his name off the primary ballot, if he wins the primary could he still decline to run in the general election and defer his spot to the primary runner-up, or have the party appoint a replacement for the general election ballot?

    2. There are so many variables in this race I would be hard pressed to bet on the outcome, and I live in the district. Kirkland and Flinn have effectively framed Fincher as a “Democrat” who is using farm subsidies to buy a primary, while Fincher has successfully painted Kirkland as a “rich guy” trying to buy the primary with a negative campaign and who has questionable conservative credentials. Flinn on the other hand is the wild card, and his presence in the race may be the determining factor, as he too has spent millions on the race.

      This bloody primary will leave a lot of carnage within the Republican electorate, and Roy Herron chances have improved markedly. However, I still place the race at no better than a toss-up until the dust settles.

    3. one it says emmer in mn has an upcoming primary.  technically, but, like saul malone, he’s the minneosta republican’s de facto leader of the gubernatorial team (a stretch, i know).  secondly, it says handle won her nomination in georgia.  there’s still the runoff.  and she’s running for gov, not “house” like wapo says.

    4. “Jeff Miller is not running for student class vice president,” Whalen said. “He is running for Congress. He needs to put on his big-boy pants.”


      The abstract provides a good summary:

      Why Democrats might be closing the gap: because their voters are coming home… Why they’re still in trouble: because they’re not in good shape with seniors and economically stressed blue-collar voters… Obama highlights GM’s turnaround with speech in Michigan at 1:40 pm ET… Why over-pandering to the Tea Party might not be working for Republican candidates in Michigan, Kansas, and Tennessee…

      We’ve been using the unemployment rate as a proxy for the national mood. This article suggests that the GM situation might be a better proxy.  

    6. Senate






      Meek-13 (!!!!)








      May I ask Republican users why they like Scott? I promise I will not ridicule your response if you support him. I am honestly just curious.

    7. Internal poll.. grain of salt… yada yada.

      A poll conducted by Magellan Strategies for Bobby Schilling’s congressional campaign has him leading U.S. Rep. Phil Hare 45 percent to 32 percent.

      The automated survey was conducted July 12 and more than 700 responses were then weighted to reflect historic county turnouts for the November election. The result is supposed to have a statistical margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percent at the 95 percent confidence level.

    8. The context is that the GOP just defeated a bill to give $7.4 billion in healthcare to NYC first responders.

      I imagine Weiner is going to be get amazing free press all weekend, damn fucking right!

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