SurveyUSA for KATU-TV (7/25-27, likely voters, 6/7-9 in parentheses):
John Kitzhaber (D): 44 (40)
Chris Dudley (R): 46 (47)
Other: 7 (6)
Undecided: 4 (7)Ron Wyden (D-inc): 53 (51)
Jim Huffman (R): 35 (38)
Other: 9 (6)
Undecided: 3 (5)
(MoE: ±4.2%)
SurveyUSA is out with another poll of the Governor and Senate races in Oregon; the last one seemed very outlier-ish at the time, but with subsequent polls from a variety of pollsters all pointing to a tie or slight Dudley lead, this is very much in line with everyone else. (Rasmussen, for instance, just saw the Governor’s race at 47-44 for Dudley and the Senate race at 51-35 for Wyden, eerily similar.) Another thing that leads me to be afraid this is close to the mark: the frequent SurveyUSA quirk with young voters isn’t present here. The 18-34 set loves Kitzhaber, giving him a 51-39 edge; Dudley’s lead is built on senior citizens.
Still, much of Kitzhaber’s problem is that he hasn’t bothered going on the air yet, partly because he anticipates being outspent and needs to conserve his resources, partly because (as I’ve belabored before) that he seems to be operating with the same ill-advised sage Zen-master sense of invincibility as Jerry Brown next door. If it’s not working as well for Kitz, it’s because Oregon isn’t quite as blue as California, with the GOP-leaning hinterlands making up a bigger percentage of the state. At any rate, he seems to be realizing he needs to get his name out there, and he’s out today with his first TV spot, a positive and job-o-centric ad.
Is Kitzhaber is ahead of Dudley by only 5 points in Portland. And Wyden, who for an Oregon Democrat usually sweeps rural Oregon, is 6 points behind Huffman and only garnering 39% of the rest of Oregon vote.
I have no doubt that Wyden will win and by a decent margin. But I can’t understand how he isn’t crushing Huffman and how a novice like Dudley is right up there with Kitzhaber. This makes me worried about the Schraeder/Bruun matchup. It’d be good to see a non-internal to come out of that district to see if it’s mirroring the senate and gubernatorial races.
Independent – 37%
Democrat – 34%
GOP – 29%
Kitzhaber – 48/87/10 = 51%
Dudley – 52/13/90 = 49%
Wyden – 62/93/17 = 60%
Huffman – 38/7/83 = 40%
OR-Gov is tight, I suspect a legit “toss-up,” but I do think Kitzhaber barely pulls it off in the end. In fact, I think Oregon’s one of the few toss-ups that ultimately swings Democrat.
OR-Sen, on the other hand, shouldn’t be a problem. In the sense that he’s not a Tea Party loon, Huffman isn’t a terrible candidate, but I think Wyden only loses if Murray, Feingold, and Boxer all go down as well. I suspect he’s in about the same territory as Dick Blumenthal; that is, Huffman would be the 52nd or 53rd Republican.
With “Other” getting 7% and 9% in the poll, is there a single 3rd party candidate getting these votes or is it a mish-mash of voters.
At least this poll seems legit. Both guys would seem to be well known. I’m kind of sick of seeing polls with 20% undecided, especially the ones in CA.
How powerful is the Governor of Oregon? What is the makeup of the state houses?
While I’m sure its not like Mass where the Gov can only do so much (since the state hosues have veto over-ride power for Dems), I’m wondering how big of a loss it really would be if Dudley won?