FL-Gov, FL-Sen: A Tale of Two Indies

Quinnipiac (7/22-27, likely primary voters, 6/1-7 in parentheses, 4/8-13 in brackets):

Alex Sink (D): 26 (25)

Bill McCollum (R): 27 (33)

Bud Chiles (I): 14 (19)

Undecided: 27 (19)

Alex Sink (D): 27 (26)

Rick Scott (R): 29 (35)

Bud Chiles (I): 14 (13)

Undecided: 26 (23)

(MoE: ±3.2%)

The primary war between Bill McCollum and Rick Scott are starting to have an effect here – to Dem state CFO Alex Sink’s advantage. In the six weeks since Quinnipiac last looked at the race, Sink’s gained a point, and the Republican’s lost 6 points in both matchups.

Perhaps more tellingly, both McCollum’s and Scott’s favorables are now underwater. Scott’s now sporting a 29/30, a reversal from the 31/22 that found in June. McCollum’s nosedive is even more pronounced, moving from a +8 spread at 37/29 to being 16 points underwater at 27/43.

Interestingly, the number of people reporting “Haven’t heard enough” about Alex Sink has ticked up two points to 58 – perhaps explaining the greater shift to “Undecided”. Despite the unpopularity of the GOPers and Sink’s low profile, Dem-turned-indie Bud Chiles doesn’t seem to getting much traction though. He’s relatively unknown as well, with 15/10 favorables and 73% not having heard enough.

Charlie Crist (I): 37 (40)

Jeff Greene (D): 17 (14)

Marco Rubio (R): 32 (33)

Undecided: 12 (11)

Charlie Crist (I): 39 (37) [32]

Kendrick Meek (D): 13 (17) [24]

Marco Rubio (R): 33 (33) [30]

Undecided: 14 (11) [13]

(MoE: ±3.2%)

Charlie Crist, in contrast to Chiles, remains in strong position, especially as Meek and Greene have gone after each other. Meek’s suffered the most from this, having lost nearly half his support in 3 months. Meek’s still an unknown quantity, with 64% saying they “don’t know enough” and those that do split 17/17. (Notably, his unfavorables have more than doubled, from 8 points to 17.) Crist dominates among Independents 50-28 over Rubio and even carries Democrats 42-33.

On the other side of the primary coin is Jeff Greene, who’s media blitz seems to have earned him some positive name recognition. He’s up to 20/15 (up from 11/11), and manages to be more competitive among Dems against Crist, holding Crist to a 41-39 lead. Crist – who’s job approval and favorables are both strong at 53-37 and 49-35, respectively, still carries Indies by a nearly identical 51-27 margin against Rubio, who remains a contender with decent favorables at 35-24, nearly unchanged from 36-22 in April.

Of course, given Jeff Greene’s yachtfuls of baggage that have yet to be publicized, this race remains in flux; however, Charlie Crist remains in the driver’s (captain’s?) seat and will continue to keep his advantage if he can become the de facto Democrat in the race.

62 thoughts on “FL-Gov, FL-Sen: A Tale of Two Indies”

  1. She should really win this. Not a gimme but when almost two thirds of the electorate don’t know who she is the room for growth is unbelievable. So long as Scott doesn’t nuke her first. I know people have been tough on her so far but like Jerry Brown and Kitzhaber she doesn’t have the financial resources to spend willy nilly. I think all three are in better shape than the current polls suggest.

  2. Eventually, Scott and McCollum will stop nuking each other.

    That Sink can only get within 2 during when her prospective opponents are just destroying each other, I’m feeling pretty good.

    Though I’ve never been a fan of the room to grow analysis, Scott has a lot of room to grow as well if you are going to argue that Sink has a lot of room to grow.  41% are undecided about him.

  3. I am not going to make a prediction until we see the 3Q fundraising figures in early October.  So much of this race depends on how Crist’s fundraising holds up.  Crist’s performance is extremely important if Greene wins the primary.  Greene will be able to dump millions into the race and Rubio has a strong fundraising machine.  If Crist’s fundraising goes south and Greene spends like there is no tomorrow, Crist’s standing in the polls might fall far enough for Rubio to sneak by with 35 to 40 percent.

    If Meek wins the primary, Crist is going to win the general regardless unless Rubio has a sudden surge.

  4. that Crist has been coined the de-facto Democrat, he never struck as a particularly moderate guy until the stimulus package, is that enough these days?  Sure, he was helpful on Schiavo and going after flood insurance companies, but are those really tough issues in the state of Florida.

    Can anyone give me a list of solid legislation that Crist has helped pass over his career.  Why support the guy over Meek from a policy perspective?  

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