PPP (pdf) (7/27-31, North Carolina voters, 6/26-27 in parentheses):
Elaine Marshall (D): 37 (33)
Richard Burr (R-inc): 39 (38)
Michael Beitler (L): 7 (10)
Undecided: 17 (16)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
Tom Jensen’s apocalyptic teasing about this race yesterday — which focused on the precipitous decline in Richard Burr‘s appovals, down to 32/44 from 38/32 a year ago — may have given Dems a little too much hope here. Today’s actual topline numbers definitely reveal a competitive race and some headway for Elaine Marshall, but Burr still has a two-point lead. PPP has usually seen this race in a slightly more favorable light for Marshall than other pollsters, so the overall trend here is pretty flat, with a high-single-digit lead for Burr.
Marshall’s favorables are all right at 23/19; her main issue seems to be that nobody (or at least 58%) knows her yet. As I’ve said many a time, that gives her a lot more room to grow… but with Burr with a large fundraising advantage over Marshall, how much growing she can do remains to be seen.
I posted about this below. I’m a bit skeptical of this poll, given it has the electorate exactly the same as it was in 2008 (47 percent McCain voters, 47 percent Obama voters) and I think the 2010 electorate will be slightly more Republican. I also think the fundraising disadvantage is a huge problem for Marshall, given that Burr will be able to use his money to define her. If this were 2006 or 2008, I think this would be a good result for Marshall, but I’m still not a believer right now.
That said, someone somewhere said of any race in the country, this one will be most defined by the national mood and the opinion of Obama. So if there is an uptick in Democratic fortunes, I might start believing.
Burr’s numbers are worse than Dole’s were at this stage two years ago. This is, amazingly, still an opportunity for Democrats — it just remains to be seen whether Marshall can take advantage of her position.
Take a look at PPP’s results in the Washington State Senate Race. They had Obama voters over McCain voters by a margin of 10 points. Obama won the state by 17, so they are figuring McCain voters will turn out seven points higher in 2010 than in the 2008 election. That seems somewhat believable to me (might be a little high on the Republican side).
Now contrast the sample for this poll, where they are predicting basically the same turnout for North Carolina in terms of candidate breakdown as happened in 2008. That just seems implausible to me.
PPP is a very good pollster, but something about their results in this poll seem off to me.
Her approval rating is the same as Burr (-12). It’s good she’s not up this time.
at least The Campaign Group (the ones who did the hard hitting ads for Sestak) are doing the ad campaign for Elaine Marshall. Hopefully they can work their magic with her like they did for Sestak.