A GOP Gerrymander of Pennsylvania

Since the Republicans already control Pennsylvania’s state senate, and they have a decent shot at picking up the trifecta in 2010, I decided to create a map which should yield at least 13, and possibly 14, Republicans. Although not every district is maintained in its present form, every Republican incumbent has at least one district that has some portion of their base. In the process, I completely demolished Holden’s district, and gave most Democratic incumbents plenty of unfamiliar areas to deal with. I did not split any municipalities except when creating majority-minority districts, and the highest deviation from the mean in terms of population is 855.

Entire State:

Metro Philadelphia:

Districts are numbered in the order that they were created, since Pennsylvania’s current numbering system makes no sense anyway.

PA-1 (Blue in Metro Philly):

This district is 51% black and effectively serves as a votesink in North Philly, taking in pretty much all of the black and Hispanic areas and expanding north to pick up Cheltenham and Abingdon in MontCo, which are very heavily D as well. Chaka Fattah would run here.

PA-2 (Green in Metro Philly):

This one would most likely be Bob Brady’s district. It’s 49% black in order to maintain the status quo with the VRA, but at the same time pick up as many black voters as possible (see the arm that goes into Chester). The most Democratic parts of the Main Line also get put in here, such as Lower Merion, Haverford and Radnor (the home of Villanova).

PA-3 (Deep Purple):

It’s always sunny in this district, which was created with one goal in mind: link together all of Philly’s white working class areas, in the hopes (for the GOP) of a demographic avalanche. The MontCo parts of this district lean Democratic, and it’s more than possible for a Democrat to win here, but the GOP has a better chance in the long-term than in any of the present-day suburban districts, all of which seem to be trending away from them. (If this district does elect a Democrat, there will still only be five in the state, which the Republicans would definitely accept.)

PA-4 (Red):

To my knowledge, it’s tradition of some sort to keep all of Bucks County in the same district, which benefits the Republicans as Obama did the worst here out of all the suburban counties (even Chester). All I’ve done is just attach some of the more reflexively GOP rural areas west of Allentown, which is just about all that can be done if you don’t split municipalities.

PA-5 (Mustard Yellow):

This district is what’s left of the current PA-13 after all of the most D parts in southern Montgomery are taken out and very conservative areas in Berks (away from Reading) and Lebanon are added. With the new additions and removal of just about everything south-east of Norristown, it’s tough to imagine the Democrats holding this one.

PA-6 (Teal):

This district was designed with one of two scenarios in mind: if Pat Meehan wins in November, he would run in this new district – if he can win in the current PA-7, adding rural York County would make him safe – and Platts would run in the new PA-12 which contains Harrisburg suburbs that he’s represented before, while if Meehan loses, the somewhat sane Platts can afford to take on a bit of DelCo, which isn’t that Democratic anyway with the removal of Chester and the Main Line. Either way, it’s pretty safe Republican.

PA-7 (Gray):

This is Gerlach’s district, assuming he survives. He’s won before with a district containing Reading, Lower Merion and various other Democratic hotbeds, so he should probably keep overperforming and romp home in a district that contains too much Lancaster for the Dems to realistically compete in. (If Gerlach loses, Pitts can run here if he wants, but he might prefer my new PA-8.)

PA-8 (Indigo):

In order to neutralize the cities of Lancaster and York, which have more minorities and are more Democratic than one might first think, I attached them to some of the most uniformly GOP turf in the state: Franklin and Adams Counties and the rural areas of Cumberland. Considering those areas vote 70%+ for Republican candidates year in and year out, and they comprise about half of the district, I’d call this safe for the GOP.

PA-9 (Light Blue):

This district was created with Charlie Dent in mind, and considering the fact that he has survived in a district that Kerry won and Obama cleaned up in, getting one like this would be a dream for him. He is relieved of Allentown and Bethlehem and instead gets places like Susquehanna and Bradford Counties that are still very Republican. (If Dent loses this year, this district would be doable for the Dems to hold, but it would be a lot tougher than the current PA-15.)

PA-10 (Pink):

Well, northeastern PA has gotten Democratic enough that one safe D votesink is pretty much inevitable in a GOP map, and I made that seat about as safe (and as convoluted) as possible. Allentown, Bethlehem, the most Democratic parts of the Poconos, Scranton, Wilkes-Barre and all of the blue towns in between go into this district, and what comes out is something that vaguely resembles the letter E that Obama might have cleared 60%, if not 65%, in. Since Chris Carney seems to be the Northeast PA Dem most likely to win (I know, I can’t believe it either), I’ll provisionally award the seat to him, but if both him and Kanjorski survive, the two would probably fight over it.

PA-11 (Lime):

I already neutralized Lancaster and York, and I’ll do the same to Reading, which is too Democratic to go in any of the Philly suburban districts in a GOP map. If Holden ran anywhere, it would probably be here, as this district contains most of his Schuylkill base. However, it also contains parts of the Susquehanna Valley that are not in his district and have few Dems outside of Lewisburg (Bucknell) and Selinsgrove (Susquehanna). If Barletta wins, he would have the option of running here (this district contains Columbia County, which is part of the current PA-11, and his home in Hazleton is just a few miles away and can easily be drawn in). Otherwise, it’s up for grabs to whichever local officeholder wants it.

PA-12 (Periwinkle):

The Harrisburg area isn’t that Democratic in the grand scheme of things, and linking it to astonishingly GOP areas to the west (Fulton, Huntingdon, Mifflin, Juniata and Perry are all 60%+ McCain and make up about half of the district) does no favours for the Democrats. Neither does Altoona, which McCain actually won. State College is in this district as well, but it’s too small to make a difference by itself. I guess Holden could run here, but once again he’s facing areas that he’s never represented before. (If Platts doesn’t run here, Shuster will.)

PA-13 (Clay):

Instead of just sitting there in the Northern Tier taking up space, I decided to put the old PA-5 to some good use, having it eat some of Holden’s district and some of the State College area. The swing areas of the Northern Tier (Lock Haven, Elk County) are just too badly outnumbered by the GOP rural areas and wilderness for a Democrat to win this district, with counties like Warren, McKean, Potter and Tioga going pretty heavily for the GOP in just about every election.

PA-14 (Green-Brown):

A rare instance in which my numbering scheme overlaps with the scheme already in place, this district grabs just about every Democrat from the Pittsburgh area that I could get while maintaining equal population. So, basically, just like the current PA-14.

PA-15 (Orange):

This would be Dahlkemper’s district, which starts in Erie and heads on over to heavily Republican Blair County, minus Altoona. The connecting areas, Venango, Clarion and Indiana Counties, also are quite Republican, and are new to Dahlkemper so she would have to introduce herself to her district all over again.

PA-16 (Nuclear Waste Green):

This would be Altmire’s district. As with Dahlkemper, I gave him a whole lot more Republicans who previously weren’t in his district (such as those in Butler County, which is about as red as a flaming brick being eaten by a fire truck).

PA-17 (Navy Blue):

I’m guessing Tim Murphy could run in this district in which McCain won every county fragment. Not much more to say about it, though.

PA-18 (Canary Yellow):

This distrct would probably be Critz’s, although I have given him almost all of GOP Westmoreland County, plus all of even more GOP Somerset and Bedford. (By creating the Western PA districts how I did, I completely broke up the Murthamander.) Shuster would run here if all other options are taken.

So there you have it. A map of a state which Obama won by 10% in which a maximum 14 of 18 representatives are Republicans.