Washington and Wyoming Primary Preview

WA-Sen (Top 2): The billed main event tonight is the Senate primary in Washington, but really, there’s not much to see here, other than for Californians to get a good look at what they just signed themselves up for, with the weirdness that is the Top 2 primary. Polling has indicated that a Patty Murray/Dino Rossi is all but inevitable, with teabaggers Clint Didier and Paul Akers having gotten little traction (although they have successfully forced Rossi to the right, rhetorically). The real question for pollwatchers is what percentage Murray and Rossi get, as some sort of tea leaf for November. Polling would seem to project Murray in the mid-40s and Rossi in the mid-30s, with Didier in the low teens, but there is so much expectations management going on that that any result will be immediately spun as imminent doom/triumph. At any rate, the primary has always been a mediocre predictor of the general (just ask Darcy Burner, who beat Dave Reichert in the 2008 WA-08 primary), and that may be compounded today by mischievous Dems crossing over to try to help the unelectable Didier past Rossi (or else sitting out, as there’s no Dem-on-Dem drama anywhere above the state legislative level).

WA-03 (Top 2): When a number of solid Dems jumped into this open seat race in the wake of Brian Baird’s retirement announcement, this looked like it had the potential for a true rumble in the jungle (primary). But instead it coalesced into something pretty similar to the Senate race, where we were left with one establishment Democrat left standing, Denny Heck (a former state Rep. from long ago, now a wealthy businessman), and on the other side, one underwhelming establishment Republican (state Rep. Jaime Herrera) and a couple feistier Tea Party types (former Bush-era deputy assistant VA Sec. David Castillo, and David Hedrick, whose main claim to fame is shouting down Baird at a town hall). Which GOPer faces Heck is hard to gauge, without any polling evidence; Herrera has the financial advantage (enough to run ads on cable, unlike Castillo), but Castillo has more local endorsements and seemingly more ground-level enthusiasm. If this turns out close, it may be days before we know which GOPer advances, as Washington results are compiled notoriously slowly — ballots postmarked through today can be counted.

WY-Gov (D): Dave Freudenthal could have opted to challenge term limits in court but decided not to, leaving the Blue Team struggling to field a candidate here. State Democratic Party chair Leslie Petersen jumped in, as did former University of Wyoming quarterback Pete Gosar. and three Some Dudes. No one’s really paid much attention to this primary, given that whoever wins will be considered quite the long shot against whoever the Republican nominee turns out to be. The last (and only?) poll of this race had Petersen leading Gosar 30-22, with undecideds through the roof. Can you really blame the undecided 48% of Wyoming Dems though? (JMD)

WY-Gov (R): Seven GOPers have jumped into the race, perhaps sensing an opportunity. Four of them exceed the “Some Dude” threshold, namely state Auditor Rita Meyer, former US Attorney Matt Mead, state House speaker (and son of former US Senator Alan) Colin Simpson, and state Agriculture Director Ron Micheli. Sarah Palin’s gotten her grubby Grizzly paws in this race, endorsing Meyer; George H.W. Bush countered with an endorsement of Simpson. The same Mason-Dixon poll had Meyer leading Mead 27-24, with Simpson at 17 and Micheli at 12. No runoffs here, so whoever pulls the plurality tonight will be the nominee. (JMD)

CA-SD15 (special general): Abel Maldonado vacated this Central Coast state Senate seat months ago after he was confirmed as Lieutenant Governor, but no one got 50% in the special primary, so we’re doing it again! Republican state Assemblyman Sam Blakeslee of San Luis Obispo fell just a tad short of clearing the 50%+1 barrier last time, scoring 49.4% to Democratic teacher John Laird’s 41.8%, with two independents of different parties getting the rest. The frustrating (or humorous) part in all of this is that we get to do this four person dance all over again, since the top finisher of each party moves on from the primary to the general! Given that Blakeslee came so close last time, it’s hard to imagine what’s shifted in the last eight weeks that Laird can pull this out and put the CA Senate Dems one closer to the magic 2/3rds mark. The wildcard, as always in special elections, is low turnout, but given how the enthusiasm gap has been, we can probably get around to anticipating what arcana the special election for Blakeslee’s Assembly seat will bring. (JMD)

Polls close at 9 pm ET (7 pm MT) in Wyoming, and 11 pm ET (8 pm PT) in Washington.

If you have predictions, please feel free to share them in the comments.

37 thoughts on “Washington and Wyoming Primary Preview”

  1. I really don’t know anything about this election, but since the Dems don’t have a chance in hell, I’m casting my lot with Simpson. If he’s anything like his dad, then he’ll avoid the hotheaded rhetoric and put principals over politics. Then again he could be nuts, but surely a Palin endorsee can’t be any better.

  2. That we will stay up late into the night as their vote counters have a ganja break, followed by a Jenga break.

  3. I guess it will be a couple days before we actually know the results in WA since everything is a mail in ballot and it seems to take a bunch of time to get them all tabulated.

  4. One thing that may lead to a higher turnout for Democrats than expected is a very important (but not covered in the national media) race for Supreme Court justice (position #1).

    The incumbent, Jim Johnson, is very conservative, anti-gay , pro big business and anti union. He originally got elected with tons of special interest money and he has worked for proposition king Tim Eyman. He is best known for ruling against gay marriage with the reasoning that the state has an interest in procreation and marriage exists mostly for procreation. (WTF!) That ruling was 5-4, so this race matters.

    WA progressive groups have teamed up (labor, GBLT, Democrats, environmental, etc etc) to vote out Johnson and elect Stan Rumbaugh instead. I’ve phone-banked a few times for him myself.

    Since there are only two candidates for this supposedly non-partisan race, the election will be decided today.

    This could drive turnout in Democratic areas.

  5. Hypothetically, what if Rossi and Didier both finished with more votes than Murray?  Would they face each other in the general election?  I don’t think it’s a likely scenario, but what if Washington Dems get complacent and either don’t bother voting or too many cross over and vote for Didier to try to screw over Rossi?  Yikes, it would be a nightmare!

  6. WA-Sen

    Murray: 44%

    Rossi: 34%

    Didier: 14%

    Akers: 4%

    Others: 4%

    WA-03

    Heck: 37%

    Herrera: 29%

    Castillo: 28%

    Hedrick: 4%

    other: 2%

    My gut feeling tells me Castillo wins, but in the last two weeks when I went with my gut feeling, I was waaaay off, so I decided to say Herrera wins because the Tea Party isn’t as strong in WA as some places.

    WY-Gov

    Meyer: 29%

    Simpson: 26%

    Mead: 24%

    Micheli: 19%

    other: 2

    CA-SD-15

    Blakeslee: 62%

    Laird: 32%

    others: 4%

    I know nothing about this race, so I’m just guessing.  

  7. WA-Sen

    Murray 45

    Rossi 30

    Didier 14

    Akers 6

    Others 5

    I expect Didier/Akers to do a little bit better than expected, considering their gains in the latest SurveyUSA poll and the fact I have seen tons of Didier and Akers signs outside of Seatttle, while only two Rossi signs in the state.

    WA-3

    Heck 44

    Herrera 26

    Castillo 19

    Hedrick 7

    Others 4

    WY-Gov (D)

    Peterson 55

    Gosar 42

    Others 3

    WY-Gov (R)

    Meyer 35

    Simpson 26

    Mead 22

    Micheli 15

    Others 2

    Pretty much a guess, except I’ve heard Mead has been hit pretty hard as a RINO, FWIW.

    Some state legislative races to watch in WA (at least for progressives) would be House Position 1 in District 23 (held by Sherry Appleton), House Position 2 (held by Tami Green), and House Position 2 in District 47 (held by Pat Sullivan.) These incumbents were among the progressive dissidents in the Democratic caucus that promoted green and labor causes under the guise of the “Blue-Green Alliance” in the last House session. These are slightly Dem-leaning districts, so the incumbents are somewhat vulnerable and it is sort of a proxy for whether progressive action helps electorally as opposed to the  more moderate and conservative Democrats in the state House.

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