Research & Polling for the Albuquerque Journal (8/23-27):
Martin Heinrich (D-inc): 47
Jon Barela (R): 41
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ±5%)
The good news is: Heinrich is in the lead, unlike his performance in that nasty SUSA poll from a month ago. The bad news is that this is a real race, and one that Democrats cannot afford to take for granted. After pasting the extremely hyped Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White by 11 points in 2008, few thought that Heinrich would be in trouble this cycle against a lesser-known foe. But you can’t ignore the numbers — this is what some would call “striking distance”.
Barela beats Heinrich among independents by 51-45 and takes 33% of the Hispanic vote. Unlike SurveyUSA, though, the unimaginatively-named Research & Polling finds Heinrich up on Barela by 20 points among 18-to-34 year-olds. If you recall, SUSA had Barela running ahead by three points among that demographic.
Meanwhile, we also have some pretty amazing NM-02 numbers:
Harry Teague (D-inc): 45
Steve Pearce (R): 42
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±5%)
I say “amazing” because the general vibes I’ve been getting from from this race haven’t been particularly strong for Teague. Teague trailed Pearce by two points in a PPP poll back in February, but the national (and local) mood has not improved since then. Teague did release an internal poll claiming a one-point lead on Pearce back in April (up from a 10-point Pearce lead a year ago), but we haven’t seen any additional polls until now.
Perhaps one factor moving the numbers for Teague is the $325K ad buy against Pearce by the Defenders of Wildlife. (The New Mexico Independent has their latest ad, if you’d like to watch it.) The fact that Teague is apparently hanging in there while so many frosh Dems are struggling to tread water is pretty remarkable.
I mean, this is a great ad.
Considering the dearth of independent polling we have seen this year (and the relative dominance of Rasmussen numbers), it is good see this one coming out – especially with Democrats leading both.
Hope it holds by November. I don’t have anything against moderate Republicans, but i don’t know a single moderate among republican candidates this year (may be – Martinez???). so it’s good to see Democrats leading
Any word on whether these are registered or likely voters? If these are RV polls, then using a LV screen Pearce probably has a small lead and Heinrich is in a toss-up race.
race nationwide to flip. Those guys usually know what they’re talking about, so this is a pleasant surprise.
Teague isn’t my number 1, but he is top 5-7.
This makes me VERY happy.
Especially at this stage. It would be fantastic if he held on.
This seat is in the top 20 of almost every commentators likely to flip list. If someone like Teague holds on, it becomes very unlikely that the Republicans will take control of the House.
Conversely, it seems very unlikely to me the Democrats will keep control of the House if Heinrich’s seat (and others like it), flip. So this is all very interesting.
As to what is happening here, take your pick: 1). Teague is up artificially because of the Defenders of Wildlife Ad 2). The poll is off (although other polls seem to back up the idea this race is a tossup) or 3). Teague is really ahead and (and here I’ll do my best Duffman or Tommy Paine imitation), there is no Republican wave happening.
As I said yesterday in another post I am from Teague’s district though I have lived in Virginia the past 5 years. Teague has his work really cut out for him.
1. Yes Pearce is not liked to the extent that his predecessor Joe Skeen (a moderate Republican who did a lot of good for the district’s farming industry) was and he did lose to the Liberal Congressmen from Santa Fe in his own district but the Udall’s are a political dynasty in the area and Obama drew out huge Latino voter numbers who otherwise wouldn’t vote. Pearce has raised lots of cash and has the political wind at his back in a reliably conservative district.
2. Just wait until the news about Harry Teague’s company dropping Health Care coverage to their employees hits and we’ll see if he has a 3 point lead.
3. In the end I see this as a 6-9 point Pearce victory.
4. I see Heinrich as safe though. Will be a 4-6 point win but I don’t see him going down. He did defeat a very worthy opponent in 2008 in Bernalillo County Sherriff Darren White who had lots of name recognition but the Obama surge definitely helped Heinrich.