EPIC-MRA for Detroit Free Press (pdf)(8/21-23, likely voters, 6/12-15 in parentheses)
Virg Bernero (D): 29 (34)
Rick Snyder (R): 51 (49)
Undecided: 20 (17)
(MoE: ±4%)
When Rick Snyder started looking, at the end, like he might win the GOP gubernatorial primary in Michigan, it raised an interesting question, given that Snyder was thoroughly dominant in pre-primary polls of the general election while the Dems were within striking distance of Peter Hoekstra and especially Mike Cox. Is it better to have a situation where, at the very worst, Michigan’s governor is a relatively sane, pleasant guy (albeit, at the end of the day, a Republican), or a situation where there’s a chance (though less than a 50% chance, given the nature of the year) of a Dem winning (but a greater than 50% chance of a truly odious creep being the next governor)? At any rate, once the dust settled on primary night, we were left with the former option, and now we’re seeing Snyder even further dominating Dem nominee Virg Bernero in polling. (The best post-primary result for the Dems actually comes from Rasmussen.)
The favorables tell pretty much the whole story here: Bernero’s “angry mayor” shtick doesn’t seem to be wearing well (he’s at 22/27), while Snyder’s post-partisan positioning gives him a remarkable 48/12 standing. Bernero — who over the weekend chose Southfield mayor Brenda Lawrence as his running mate, which should help a bit in terms of African-American support and presence in the Detroit area — may improve his numbers as he gets better-known, but it may be too late for him to do much to define Snyder. With that in mind, Swing State Project is moving this race to “Lean Republican” from “Tossup.”
One that I’ve wrestled with as well. In a year like this, who do you root for as the Republican if you’re a Dem like me – the less insane (or less crooked) or the more beatable?
I end up going for the former, which is why I was rooting for Branstad in Iowa and McCollum in Florida even though I’d never vote for either one.
But if this was 2008, I’d almost certainly root for the latter. I just think this is too dangerous of year.
(agree with your ranking move, btw)
In a GOP wave election is surely at least likely R.
Snyder does have the momentum, money, and the media on his side. I, however, think this race will be a toss-up by the time we get to the election. Snyder hasn’t been tested much. He received minimal criticism during the primary. There was only one negative television ad (an ad that was directed at Snyder and Hoekstra) that aired the weekend before the primary. Many voters haven’t been exposed to Snyder’s weaknesses. This is why Snyder wants all of the debates to be finished by the middle of September. He doesn’t want all his weaknesses presented during a poor debate performance just a week or so before the vote.
Snyder also isn’t running on much other than the typical GOP talking point of “cut taxes.” His “plan to reinvent Michigan” is vague ideas that even us simpletons could have written. Snyder is all about marketing the nerd image. There’s very little substance to his campaign. The question is whether this will matter to voters. I think once his business career is examined more closely, the nerd image will start to look less appealing…particularly to Democrats and progressive independents who were thinking of voting for him.
Whoever wins, I think it will be much closer than this poll indicates.