The Tea Party Express, which spent some $600,000 on Alaska Republican Joe Miller’s primary challenge to Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R), says it’s preparing to do the same on behalf of Christine O’Donnell (R) in Delaware. […]
Tea Party Express spokesman Levi Russell said Monday that his organization is already cutting TV and radio ads in Delaware and expects to be on the air by the end of the week. Russell said he hopes to match the support the group offered in GOP primaries in Utah, Nevada and Alaska this year.
“All of our spending is dependent on the enthusiasm of the Tea Party Express members,” Russell said. “It’s up to that race and that candidate to capture their imagination.”
As to whether O’Donnell has done that to this point, Russell admits “not quite yet.” But he expressed confidence that the money will flood in over the coming days.
“I’m sure we’ll be spending six figures in Delaware,” Russell predicted.
After powering Mike Lee, Sharron Angle and Joe Miller to stunning primary victories (or, in Miller’s case, a still-unconfirmed kill), the weight of the Tea Party Express’ independent expenditures cannot be ignored.
Establishment Republicans in Delaware appear to be livid at this news (and O’Donnell’s candidacy in general), with state GOP chair Tom Ross call O’Donnell “a perennial candidate who lacks the standing in Delaware to get elected to anything.” The Politico recently profiled O’Donnell’s long-shot bid, and she had some choice quotes on Castle, describing him as “not a church-friendly candidate” and “the most liberal Republican in the House” who could be toppled in a closed GOP primary. (Less savory was O’Donnell’s campaign manager spouting off about Castle being a “70-year-old bad heart Republican.”)
Meanwhile, the rest of us are hiding quietly behind the washing machine.
It would be so great if Castle got defeated in the primary.
be playing in this primary.
I’m still really skeptical.
Still… HAW HAW!
but a link to it is just as good. This could be the best thing to come of this cycle.
Oh please, oh please . . .
come to bat for her on primary day, you know like these people: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…
If Castle goes down in the primary right here and now, then our losses in the Senate could be mitigated further. If all of the Tea party candidates go down (Miller, Angle, Paul, Rubio, Buck) then we have a realistic shot of keeping our numbers at 59.
FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU
More seriously, I’m not sure they’re going to get anywhere with this. Of course, I thought the same thing about Alaska.
I don’t think it’s going to happen (O’Donnell winning that is). The Tea Party Express is getting a lot of publicity because of Joe Miller, but he also had Palin’s backing in a state he used to be Governor. Nor is this the equivalent of Buck’s challenge (Norton had been elected as Lt. Governor four years ago) or Angle (she didn’t beat anyone of comparible stature to Castle). So I’m going on record as predicing Castle still wins this.
On the other hand (and I think this is the wrong thread to make this prediction, so I’ll make it somewhere else right now), I’m going on record as predicing Ovid Lamontage wins NH.
Are these moonbats so mad they do not realize this is Delaware? This is not Alaska, Utah or Nevada.
I am going to answer this question since its so obvious: Yes.
Remember you have to advertise in the Philadelphia and Baltimore media markets to insure the entire state gets covered. A couple hundred thousand dollars is a drop in the bucket in Delaware seeing you are also buying everything between Trenton and Baltimore.
I think she likes Castle because he’s been around for so long. Plus she’s voting Republican this year for the first time because she’s mad about all the Hispanics being in Southern Delaware (she’s old, okay lol).
Only problem for Castle though is that she’s still a registered Democrat. I’m sure a good deal of his support comes from moderate Democrats like her (who are probably less racist but still like her). This is the Republican primary, so people like her won’t get to vote; this hurts Castle a lot.
According to the state of Delaware BOE, as of last month the breakdown statewide looked like this:
47% Dem
29% Rep
24% Indie/Other
In New Castle County, which has 62% of the voters in the state, the numbers were:
50% Dem
26% Rep
24% Indie
Only 55% of registered Republicans in Delaware live in New Castle County, compared to 62% of all voters and 66% of all Democratic voters. Therefore, the Dems are much more likely to select someone who’s acceptable and mainstream in New Castle County. Though a majority of Republican voters still live in New Castle County, a certain percentage of those voters are really conservative despite living in such a liberal county. Combined with the really conservative voters in South Delaware (Sussex County), who a few years ago actually ran a girl out of town (literally) for being liberal and Jewish and suing the school district for handing out Bibles in school, and you might be able to get a majority, especially with emotions running high on the far right this year.
The real trick for the O’Donnell campaign is to convince these conservative voters that she’s the real deal. If she can do that, then she does have a chance.
Hate to be the wet blanket here, but I find it interesting that people are able to view Senate contests on a race-by-race basis (for instance, Nevada may not be caught up in the GOP wave because of a right-wing candidate) but don’t view primary contests on a race-by-race basis.
Is it coincidence that, this year more than ever, more conservative challengers are gaining steam? Probably not. But let’s take a look at what circumstances we’re talking about:
UT: This wasn’t even a primary, but rather a convention, attracting the most hardcore activists in the most conservative state. Total participants? Less than 3,500.
FL: This really shouldn’t count at all. Rubio 1) entered the race before Charlie Crist did, and 2) as a former House speaker, is a much more establishment-based candidate than the likes of O’Donnell or Miller. Rubio didn’t get in the race to challenge the establishment, he got in to win the Senate seat, and would be the favorite right now if Crist had passed on the race.
NV: Clearly a coup for the Tea Party, but as mentioned above, she defeated two underwhelming, B-list at best candidates, including one who shot herself repeatedly in the foot (the chicken barterer).
CO: There’s no denying that Norton was “establishment” and Buck is more aligned with the conservative grassroots. But Buck also called the tea party a bunch of “dumbasses” and neither Norton nor Buck had a significant profile in the state. While this was a defeat of the establishment, I don’t think it really affected the chances of a takeover one way or another.
KY: I’ll give this to you, along with CO, even though I think Rand Paul is still the favorite to be the next Senator, its going to be closer than it would be with Grayson.
AK: A low-interest, cheap primary with the popular former Governor backing a candidate against an embattled Senator whom Alaskans never really took to after she was appointed by her father. Like Kentucky, I think Joe Miller is the favorite to be the next Senator.
Races like Colorado and Kentucky give rise to the trend, even though I think the results in both races still keep the GOP odds at greater than 50% of winning. But races in Florida, Utah, Nevada, and Alaska are marked by unique circumstances that aren’t easily reproduced elsewhere.
Keep in mind that according to people like Nate Silver, at the end of the day, its possible (and even likely) that these tea party nominations won’t cost the Republicans a single seat in the Senate.
Christine O’Donnell might win in a DC Tea Party primary, but there ain’t a shot in hell she comes even close among Delaware Republicans. The state GOP loathes her, and even most of the rank-and-file conservatives do too. I bet she gets 23% tops.
more bullish on Miller’s chances in Alaska than most others here. But I don’t know about this one. I just don’t know if the NRSCC will let itself fall asleep at the wheel again . I’ll withhold my judgement though until we see all the spending reports and campaign ads.
reason why Murkowski is in the hole she is right now is because she let the tea party express and Joe Miller run attack ads against to her to a 10-1 ratio. A Murkowski supporter said he saw 10 negative ads from the Miller/Tea Party Express and 1 positive ad from Lisa Murkowski at any given time.
Even if O’Donnell beats Castle, and even if she, Angle, Paul, Miller and the others then go down in flames, Lee is completely insane and probably has Bennett’s seat for life.
When the Tea Party Express plays in states that can be competitive, it’s a good thing. When they play in Utah, they actually further their agenda.