SSP Daily Digest: 8/31

WI-Sen: Know how you can tell that this hypocrisy-on-government-aid problem (see the last couple digests for backstory… Ron Johnson’s company Pacur has been repeatedly expanded with the help of government loans, y’know, the kind that of meddling in the free market that we have to get rid of) is putting a scare into the Johnson camp? Now he’s been rewriting history on Pacur’s website to adjust the founding date of his company, from 1977 to 1979. Johnson had previously claimed that the railroad spur built (with federal help, natch) to his company was in early ’79, before Pacur was founded. (Pacur’s predecessor company was founded in ’77; it changed names in ’79.)

CO-Gov (pdf): Republican pollster Magellan is out with a new look at the Colorado gubernatorial race; they find the combined Dan Maes + Tom Tancredo vote still less than the John Hickenlooper vote. It’s Hickenlooper 46, Maes 27, Tancredo 17. (That’s a lot fewer undecideds than today’s Rasmussen poll; see below.)

FL-Gov: Ah, the sweet smell of unity. Well, sort of… the state party finally got around to having its fete for newly-minted gubernatorial nominee Rick Scott, the one canceled last week for lack of, well, unity. Insiders like state House speaker Dean Cannon and next state Senate president Mike Haridopolos toasted Scott, despite the fact that up until last Tuesday they were working hard to defeat him. There was someone important missing, though, that kind of defeats that whole “unity” thing… it was Bill McCollum, who confirmed yet again today that he’s “staying out of” the governor’s race. Meanwhile, DGA head Nathan Daschle (here’s a guy who knows how the game is played) is out with a bit of concern trolling of his own, offering unsolicited advice to RGA head Haley Barbour and other interested Republicans that they probably don’t want to be seen campaigning next to Scott.

NM-Gov: Biden alert! The Veep will be bringing his patented comedic stylings to the Land of Enchantment to host a fundraiser for Diane Denish, whose once slam-dunk gubernatorial bid has deteriorated into a jump-ball.

NY-Gov: State GOP party chair Ed Cox is having a helping heaping of crow from breakfast, having to get behind Rick Lazio for the GOP gubernatorial nod… out of fear of the possibility of the even more objectionable Carl Paladino winding up with the nomination. (Remember, Cox recruiting Suffolk Co. Exec Steve Levy to not only get in the race but switch parties to do so, only to watch him crash and burn.) Cox issued a letter urging local party leaders to get behind Cox, filled with magnanimous praise, perhaps none more so than when he calls Lazio “credible.”

AR-04: Rounding out their tour of the state, Talk Business Journal/Hendrix College take a look at the 4th, the only non-open seat in all of Arkansas. Despite the rough poll numbers that they found for the Dem candidates in the 1st and 2nd, they find Mike Ross in solid shape, probably thanks to an underwhelming opponent in the form of Beth Anne Rankin. Ross leads 49-31, with 4 going to Green candidate Joshua Drake.

FL-08: In yet another example of Alan Grayson zigging when other Dems zag, he’s out with an internal poll, and it puts him in surprisingly strong shape against Daniel Webster, thanks in large part to a strong performance by “other” (presumably the Tea Party candidate). The PPP poll gives Grayson a 40-27 lead over Webster, with 23 for “Other” and 11 undecided. That’s all in the face of a new ad campaign from Americans for Prosperity, who are out with ads in the Orlando market attacking both Grayson and FL-24’s Suzanne Kosmas. (AFP, of course, is the front group for the right-wing billionaire Koch family, and the DCCC has recently filed IRS complaints against AFP for engaging in political advocacy despite its tax-exempt status.)

FL-22: Allen West is out with a second TV ad focusing on economic issues, like that burdensome debt. (He’s talking about national debt, not his own debts.) Still, most of the buzz in this race right now seems to be about his latest round of unhinged remarks on his campaign website’s blog, in which he called opponent Ron Klein, calling him, among other things, a “cretin,” “little Lord Ron,” a “pathetic liberal,” “little Ronnie,” and “a mama’s boy” to Nancy Pelosi.

IA-05: Rep. Steve King declined to debate opponent Matt Campbell in about the douchiest way possible: when Campbell showed up at a King town hall to ask King why he wasn’t willing to debate, King said that Campbell had “not earned it.”

MI-01, MI-07: Well, it looks like the fake Tea Party is truly finished in Michigan. The Michigan Court of Appeals today upheld the Board of Canvassers’ decision them off the ballot because of irregularities in submitted signatures. There were Tea Party candidates ready to go in the 1st and the 7th, both competitive districts where Dems would be glad to have some right-wing votes siphoned off from the GOP candidates.

MO-04: Rep. Ike Skelton is the chair of the House Armed Services Committee, and he wants you to know it. Instead of focusing on the endless jobs-jobs-jobs mantra like many Dems, he’s focusing on military issues and his commitment to veterans. His first two ads featured testimonials from a Marine mother and an Army veteran, and his third ad attacked GOP opponent Vicky Hartzler over her apparently insufficient support of the military.

NC-11: Two Democratic House members out with internals? Let’s hope this is actually a trend. Buried in a CQ article about his new TV ad (with a buy in the “high five digits”), there are also some details about Heath Shuler’s most recent internal poll. The poll, taken by Anzalone-Liszt, gives Shuler a 51-34 lead over Jeff Miller. More ads are likely to follow, as Shuler leads Miller in the cash department, $1.4 million to $70K.

NY-13: Rep. Mike McMahon’s getting some big name help on the stump. Bill Clinton will join McMahon for a Friday rally on Staten Island.

NY-20: Scott Murphy’s dipping into his big war chest with another TV spot, this one focusing on his job-preserving efforts. Murphy opponent Chris Gibson, meantime, dropped a bombshell in his first debate against Murphy last week: that government intervention exacerbated the Great Depression rather than mitigated it (a theory advanced by Amity Schlaes and approximately, oh, zero other respected economists).

PA-10: What’s up with former US Attorneys in Pennsylvania turning out to be thin-skinned, poor campaigners? There’s the Mary Beth Buchanan implosion, of course, but now video has turned up of Tom Marino’s recent encounter with protesters at a Williamsport appearance. Marino yells back to protestors “What do you do for a job?” and “What kind of welfare are you on?” (No word on whether these questions were punctuated with “You hippies!”)

VA-05: Here’s a guy we haven’t thought about in a long time: Ross Perot. Yet, Tom Perriello is dusting off Perot and holding him up as a guy he liked, especially in terms of his deficit hawkishness. He did so in the context of meeting with the local Tea Partiers (where he also reiterated his support for canning the Geithner/Summers economic team), probably in an effort to find some common ground with them.

State legislatures: The DLCC has a memorandum out that lays out where they’ll be focusing their efforts this year (and thus what they consider to be the most competitive state legislative chambers). The 10 chambers they’re emphasizing on defense are the Alabama Senate, Colorado Senate, Indiana House, Nevada Senate, New Hampshire Senate, New York Senate, Ohio House, Pennsylvania House, Wisconsin Assembly, and Wisconsin House. They’re also going on the offense in the Michigan Senate, Kentucky Senate, Tennessee House, and Texas House..

WA-Init: SurveyUSA has polls of a handful of initiatives that’ll be on the ballot in November. Most significantly, they find continued (although reduced, from their previous poll) support for I-1098, which would create a state income tax for high earners. It’s currently passing, 41-33. Meanwhile, Washingtonians quite literally want to have their cake and eat it too: they’re favoring I-1107, by a 42-34 margin, which would end sales taxes on candy and end temporary taxes on bottled water and soft drinks.

Dave’s App: Just in time for the school year, here’s a new time-wasting opportunity: Dave’s Redistricting Application now has partisan data for Pennsylvania. (There’s also partisan data for CA, MD, NC, NM, NY, and TX.)

Polltopia: PPP wants to know where you think they should poll next. Interesting options include Maine and West Virginia (where there’s the tantalizing prospect of House races being polled, too).


MO-Sen: Anti-Roy Blunt ad from Robin Carnahan

NH-Gov: Positive jobs-jobs-jobs spot from John Lynch

FL-02: Allen Boyd hits Steve Southerland on Social Security privatization, 17th Amendment

IN-09: Anti-Baron Hill from Todd Young

IN-09: Anti-Todd Young ad from Baron Hill (Social Security privatization… sensing a theme here?)

MN-06: Bio ad from Tarryl Clark

MN-06: Michele Bachmann wants you to know that she hates taxes

NJ-12: Emergency Committee for Israel ad against Rush Holt (“modest but real” buy)

OH-15: Positive bio ad about Steve Stivers’ military service

PA-11: Paul Kanjorski’s first TV ad, hitting Lou Barletta over what a shithole Hazleton is

SC-05: Bio ad from Mick Mulvaney (his first ad)

WI-07: DCCC ad attacking Sean Duffy over Social Security privatization (their first independent expenditure ad anywhere)


CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D) 36%, Dan Maes (R) 24%, Tom Tancredo (C) 14%

OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 39%, Rob Portman (R) 44%

PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D) 39%, Pat Toomey (R) 45%

102 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 8/31”

  1. …their Ohio poll is going to be as ugly as Gallup’s 10 point generic ballot, yesterday.  Considering that their polling was very ugly to begin with BEFORE the likely voter model, I’m afraid to even look.

  2. On their youtube channel, they have a lot of recent clips of Sandy Adams (FL-24) and Jesse Kelly (AZ-08) saying controversial things.

    Also, Harry Reid is out with another ad against Sharron Angle.  This one uses the testimony of an unemployed person and plays three clips of Sharron Angle saying she opposes extending unemployment benefits and that unemployed are spoiled.

  3. There’s still an outside shot (or perhaps not so outside now) that the Michigan Tea Party could get on the ballot. Though their appeal was denied unanimously by the Michigan CoA, they are appealing to the Michigan Supreme Court. This is where it gets interesting.

    Last week Elizabeth Weaver, a Republican appointee who had been veering to the left more and more amid spats with the other Republican justices on the Supreme Court, cut a deal with Jennifer Granholm to resign on the condition that Granholm appoint a new judge from Northern Michigan (Weaver’s home region). This Granholm did, appointing Judge Alton Davis to replace Weaver on the Supreme Court. This finally gives Democrats a working 4-3 majority on the Michigan Supreme Court, as opposed to the sort of unspoken deal that Weaver had with the Dems before to vote with them on important things. Therefore, given their new majority, it’s entirely possible that the new Dem majority on the court could take the fake Tea Party’s side and put them on the ballot. Who knows.

  4. This is just one poll, and that Ohio poll question really has no bearing on the election that will be held in November.

    The Iraq War is Formally over, and democrats usually see a bump (as seen in 06 and 08) in Mid-September.  If the situation then is the same as right now, then we may be screwed, but I have a feeling things will get better.

  5. But a few weeks ago, when I said tying Portman to Bush in Ohio would not be effective, everyone jumped down my throats and said I was dead off. Well, apparently, it is I who was right, according to PPP:

    by a 50-42 margin voters there say they’d rather have George W. Bush in the White House right now than Barack Obama.


  6. How exactly does Boyd criticize anyone for social security privatization; he was Bush’s Democratic spokesman for Social Security Privatization.

    Overall, looks like good news today.  


    w/r/t the financial regulatory bill of ’09

    Each of the three House members – Representatives John Campbell, Republican of California; Joseph Crowley, Democrat of New York; and Tom Price, Republican of Georgia – criticized the referrals on Tuesday, with two of them saying the quasi-independent ethics office had not produced evidence of wrongdoing.

    5 more escaped inquiry

    The notices of dismissal  were sent to Representatives Jeb Hensarling, Republican of Texas; Christopher Lee, Republican of New York; Frank D. Lucas, Republican of Oklahoma; Earl Pomeroy, Democrat of North Dakota; and Melvin Watt, Democrat of North Carolina.

  8. As a man who love beer, deep fried bacon and corn dogs I got to give it up for that Bachmann state fair ad:

    I mean I never thought I’d see the day where a campaign slogan would be “What’s up with taxing my beer?” We are a long way from the days of “Demon Rum”.

    I think Bachmann’s got the Male 18-26 college student vote locked up with this one!

  9. here in Los Angeles an ad attacking Barbara Boxer, claiming she’ll get rid of Medicare.  It’s from the Crossroads Grassroots Policy Strategies.

    The more than $2 million in ads by Washington-based Crossroads Grassroots Policy Strategies criticize Sen. Barbara Boxer of California and Pennsylvania Senate candidate Joe Sestak for voting for President Barack Obama’s health care overhaul. It also chides Kentucky Senate candidate Jack Conway, the state’s attorney general, for refusing to join 13 other attorneys general who are challenging key provisions in the law.

    The wave of advertising represents an early display of firepower by the group, a sister organization to American Crossroads, whose advisers include Republican masterminds Karl Rove and Ed Gillespie. It has already spent more than $3 million airing ads against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet and Democratic Senate candidate Robin Carnahan in Missouri, and for Republican Rob Portman in Ohio.

    Crossroads is spending $1 million in California and $500,000 in Pennsylvania to air the ad for one week, and $520,000 to air the ad in Kentucky for two weeks.

    Crossroads, like other emerging political groups running ads in this election year, can raise unlimited amounts of money from individuals and corporations but is not required to disclose those donors. Group officials aim to raise $50 million to help Republican candidates in this election.

    So yep, they’re up and running ads here on broadcast TV in L.A.

  10. I was trying to embed a spreadsheet in a diary, and the thing tells me the iframe tag isn’t allowed. Is there any other way to do this?

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