The Heart of This Year’s Darkness: The Deep South
There are seven Southern House seats that are, in my opinion, absolutely gone: the two open Arkansas seats, the Louisana 3rd, Tennessee 6th, Florida 2nd, and the Virginia 2nd and 5th. I still think we have a ghost of a chance in the Tennessee 8th, but that one is likely toast too.
If its any consolation, I think that the Arkansas 2nd and Tennessee 8th are long term pains in the neck for the GOP. The bright spot in the Deep South is the Louisana 2nd, which we should get back, so that effectively cancels out our loss of the 3rd district, which disappears in redistricting anyways.
I’m actually optimistic when it comes to pretty much every Deep South incumbent except for Allan Boyd. If my memory serves me right, the last one of those to lose under non flukey circumstances was Max Burns in the Georgia 12th in ’04. So I have Bright, Childers, Barrow, Spratt, Edwards, Ciro Rodriguez, and Marshall hanging on.
In the upper South and border states, things are a bit better. I think the North Carolina delegation is in relatively good shape, and that we hold onto the Virginia 11th as well. Kentucky is fine. In Florida south of the I-4 corridor, Kosmas and Grayson are far from gone (pure tossups, though I like Grayson’s chances better), Klein’s challenger in the 22nd is insane, and we could actually come out of Florida in better shape, if the only loss is Boyd and Garcia picks up the 25th. The GOP has yet to nail down Florida 12 as well.
The Other Pain Center: The Industrial Midwest
Our incumbents in Missouri are in pretty good shape; I’m firmly convinced that Ike Skelton is too much of a fixture to lose and Russ Carnahan’s seat is too Democratic. Roy Blunt isn’t exactly setting the world on fire either on the Senate side, which is a plus. In Illiois, we should break even; minus Halvorson but plus Seals; Foster is a likely winner as well. I can live with that. I think Brad Ellsworth’s seat is a likely loss, but Donnelly and Hill narrowly hold on. The success of the auto bailout saves Gary Peters in the 9th District, but Mark Schauer is in trouble in the 7th. In Ohio, Kilroy isn’t strong enough, and Driehaus’s district is too polarized this year for him to survive; he’s not going to get the AA turnout he needs there. Boccieri should be okay in the 16th.
The Mid Atlantic
In the Mid Atlantic region, there are two seats that are currently very far gone: Pennsylvania 11th and New York 29th. Neither of those should be a long term hold for the GOP (PA-11 is too Dem, NY-29 goes in redistricting). There are a large number of seats I’m very concerned about here: the New York 24th (though I feel better seeing some positive numbers for Arcuri there), John Adler in the New Jersey 2nd, the Maryland 1st, and the Pennsylvania 3rd, 7th, and 10th; though Carney’s opposition seems sub-par. I particularly feel very queasy about the open 7th in Pennsylvania. Altmire, Murphy, and Holden should be okay,. Against this, we will pick up the open seat in Delaware.
New England
In all of New England, I think our only problems lay in the New Hampshire seats; my best guess is that we hold the 1st, and lose the open 2nd District. There are some who think MA-10 is in play, but I have my doubts, and even if it is, guess who gets screwed over in redidtricting….
The Upper Midwest and Plains
Our incumbents in Minnesota and Wisconsin seem to be in relatively good shape; Kagan could lose, but I honestly think he’ll be okay, and Julie Lassa’s opposition doesn’t seem to be that strong. Sadly, Michele Bachmann isn’t going anywhere though. In the Dakotas, I think we’ve been seeing too much Rasmussen and too little of anything else. I’m more worried about Pomeroy than Herseth-Sandlin because of Hoeven at the top of the ticket, but I think those are both holds at the end of the day.
I think that Dennis Moore’s seat in suburban Kansas City is a likely loss; the only incumbent in the region I have any reservations about is Leonard Boswell in the Iowa 3rd; he was in trouble even in the wave year of ’06. Why he didn’t get out of dodge in ’08 is beyond me…..
The West
This is the region where we’ve gotten the most help from the GOP. The top of the ticket for the GOP in Colorado is a godsend, which will give Markey a fighting chance, which is all you can ask for in this year’s environment. The spillover effects from Sharon Angle likewise help Dina Titus in suburban Las Vegas, and Jan Brewer doens’t look so hot in Arizona which helps out Harry Mitchell.
I’m guessing that we lose the open Washington 3rd, along with the Colorado 4th. Mitchell has a strong enough brand name in Tempe that he narrowly holds the Arizona 5th, and Titus’s seat could go either way. Somehow, I think Walt Minnick holds on, as does Harry Teague. We are plus one in Hawaii.
So, here’s the Dem lost causes (15):
-Arkansas 1st
-Arkansas 2nd
-Florida 2nd
-Louisana 3rd
-Kansas 3rd
-Illinois 11th
-New Hampshire 2nd
-New York 29th
-Ohio 1st
-Ohio 15th
-Pennsylvania 11th
-Tennessee 6th
-Virginia 2nd
-Virginia 5th
-Washington 3rd
GOP Goners (5)
+Delaware AL
+Florida 25th
+Hawaii 2nd
+Illinois 10th
+Louisana 2nd
Dem “It’s Not Looking Good” Seats (11)
-Colorado 4th
-Florida 24th
-Indiana 8th
-New York 24th
-Maryland 1st
-Michigan 7th
-Nevada 3rd
-New Jersey 2nd
-Pennsylvania 3rd
-Pennsylvania 7th
-Tennessee 8th
Dem Watch List
-Arizona 5th
-Florida 8th
-Iowa 3rd
-Illinois 15th
-Indiana 2nd
-Indiana 9th
-Michigan 9th
-Missouri 4th
-New York 20th
-New York 23rd
-Ohio 16th
-Pennsylvania 10th
-Virginia 11th
GOP Watch List
+Arizona 3rd (nothing but a gut feeling here)
+Florida 12th
+Minnesota 6th
Overall Guess: ~R + 29 seats
As a note feel free to comment about any of these races, and I’ll give you my thoughts
to fix some of your race numbers.
In the Goner seats for Dems, you have TN-05 (I think you mean TN-06, but check that)
In Nevada, you have the 2nd under Democrats “It’s not looking good” but I think you mean NV-03, which is where the Democratic incumbent Titus is.
And I agree with you on the lost causes.
With all of the polling based on random sampling instead of whatever the heck Survey USA uses showing VA-05 a dead heat, I think Perriello is clearly still in the game.
Some of them are lean D, some of them are tossups. I wouldn’t even say any of them are likely D.
I have no idea why several users here seem to think that this district is solid or even leaning toward the Democrat. This is a Republican, if Hispanic-heavy district with a strong Republican nominee. Yes, the Democrat is also pretty solid, but his best work is winning 47% in the best Democratic year in a generation. This is not that year; quite the opposite.
In addition, a number of people (including the DD) mentioned that Rivera is “scandal-plagued” due to an incident involving a David Rivera running a truck off the road. This allegation has been brought up in every race Rivera has run since 2002, and he has made clear that the David Rivera in question is not him. Indeed, no investigation or journalist has been able to conclude otherwise. Unless this is proven or any real polling evidence (not internals) is produced, this race is leaning R–hard R in this environment.
You mean the “I-4 Corridor” in Florida; I-5 is the major North-South interstate on the West Coast.
That Joe Heck and the NRCC shouldn’t take us for granted. Dina Titus is out campaigning in full force, and the state party is turning up its “lean, mean, GOTV machine” for Titus as well as Reid. Most likely if Reid wins the Senate race, Titus wins the House race. It may sound wild, but it’s really that simple.
Think it’s too early to count on Dems picking that one up.
Adler is New Jersey’s 3rd district, not 2nd.
Hawaii’s 2nd is indeed a goner for the GOP, but only because that seat is safely held by Democrat Mazie Hirono. I think you mean Hawaii’s 1st.
Illinois’ 15th is held by Republican Timothy Johnson. If you meant Bill Foster, that is the 14th.