In lieu of a morning digest, let’s continue our series of community surveys by holding a cattle call for all the Governor’s races up this year.
In case you haven’t done one of these before, rank the gov seats that are up this fall in order of likelihood of flipping party control. The traditional SSP way is to include seats held by both parties in a single list (separate lists make comparisons harder). Go as far down the list as you like. If you need some food for thought, check out Swing State’s gubernatorial race ratings. Have fun!
Wyoming
Kansas
Rhode Island (to D or I)
Tennessee
Michigan
Iowa
Hawaii
Pennsylvania
Connecticut
Ohio
Minnesota
Florida
Illinois (painful to put it this high…)
California
Wisconsin
New Mexico
Maine
Georgia
Oregon
Texas
Maryland
Massachusetts
Vermont
Arizona
South Carolina
Idaho
New Hampshire
Nevada
Oklahoma
Alabama
Colorado
Arkansas
South Dakota
Utah
New York
Alaska
Nebraska
Let me try…
Likely Flip:
Wyoming
Rhode Island
Kansas
Tennessee
Leans Flip:
Hawaii
Iowa
Connecticut
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Minnesota
Florida
Illinois
Tossup:
Ohio
California
Wisconsin
New Mexico
Maine
Oregon
Leans Retention:
Georgia
Texas
Maryland
Massachusetts
Nevada
Arizona
Vermont
Likely Retention:
Arkansas
New Hampshire
Oklahoma
Alabama
South Carolina
Colorado
Everything else looks safer than safe…
Definite:
WY
KS
HI
OK
TN
IA
MI
PA
RI (R to I, possibly D)
Probable:
CT
FL
OH
MN
IL
WI
CA
Possible:
VT
NM
ME
TX
MD
GA
Unlikely:
MA
AZ
NV
SC
AL
NH
SD
CO
AK
Very unlikely:
AR
ID
UT
Definitely not:
NY
NE
Florida (I to D)
Kansas
Wyoming
Tennessee
Rhode Island
Iowa
Hawaii
Oklahoma
Ohio
Illinois
Pennsylvania
Connecticut
Minnesota
Michigan
Wisconsin
California
New Mexico
Maine
Oregon
Maryland
Vermont
Georgia
Texas
Colorado
Nevada
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
Arkansas
Arizona
South Carolina
New York
Alabama
Idaho
South Dakota
Alaska
Utah
Nebraska
You really think Dems are more likely to win in Florida than Republicans in Wyoming and Kansas? I think Sink will win, but her chances are nowhere near as good as the GOP’s in extremely red states like WY and KS.
but one based on pollster.com polling averages. This gets Republicans a whopping 14 pickups, with 6 Dem pickups, for a net of 8 to the Republicans. Flips in bold.
1. Wyoming R+34
2. Kansas R+33
3. Michigan R+26
4. Tennessee R+22
5. Hawaii D+19
6. Iowa R+17
7. Rhode Island D+16
8. Oklahoma R+16
9. Pennsylvania R+12
10. Connecticut D+11
11. Maine R+11
12. Ohio R+10
13. Illinois R+10
14. Minnesota D+8
15. New Mexico R+6
16. Florida D+6
17. Wisconsin R+5
18. California R+5
19. Oregon R+4
20. Maryland D+3
21. Massachusetts D+5
22. Texas R+5
23. Georgia R+11
24. Arkansas D+13
25. South Carolina R+13
26. Alaska R+14
27. Idaho R+16
28. New Hampshire D+17
29. Vermont R+19
30. Nevada R+19
31. Arizona R+21
32. Colorado D+22
33. Alabama R+24
34. South Dakota R+30
35. Nebraska R+33
36. Utah R+34
37. New York D+35
1 (guaranteed gone for incumbent party): Kansas, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Wyoming.
2. Hawaii
3. Illinois
4. Michigan
5. Tennessee
6. Iowa
7. Ohio
8. Minnesota
9. Connecticut
10. Maine
11. New Mexico
12. Florida
13. Oregon
14. Wisconsin
15. California
16. Texas
17. Georgia
18. Arizona
19. New Hampshire
20. Idaho
21. Maryland
22. Massachusetts
23. Vermont
24. Alaska
25. Nevada
26. Alabama
27. Colorado
28. Arkansas
29. New York
30. Utah
31. Nebraska (So safe I keep forgetting it exists)
Shumlin now leads Dubie in Vermont according to Rasmussen, 49-46.
http://www.rasmussenreports.co…
Please, oh benevolent moderators?
SAFE FLIPS 100%
1. Wyoming
2. Kansas
3. Rhode Island (to I or D)
VERY LIKELY FLIPS >90%
4. Michigan
5. Tennessee
6. Nevada
7. Connecticut
8. Pennsylvania
9. Hawaii
LIKELY FLIPS >75%
10. Oklahoma
11. Florida
12. Illinois
LEAN FLIP >55%
13. Minnesota
14. Ohio
15. Wisconsin
TOSSUP ~50%
16. Maine
17. New Mexico
18. Oregon
19. California
20. Vermont
LEAN RETENTION <55%
21. Maryland
22. Texas
23. Massachusetts
24. Georgia
LIKELY RETENTION <75%
25. Arizona
26. South Carolina
27. Idaho
VERY LIKELY RETENTION <90%
28. Alabama
SAFE RETENTION 100%
29. Utah
30. Colorado
31. South Dakota
1. Florida
2. Wyoming
3. Rhode Island
4. Kansas
5. Oklahoma
6. Tennessee
7. Hawaii
8. Michigan
9. Iowa
10. Connecticut
11. Minnesota
12. Illinois
13. Pennsylvania
**Insert Florida here if you consider it R-held**
14. Ohio
15. Maine
16. New Mexico
17. Wisconsin
18. Oregon
19. Vermont
20. California
21. Georgia
22. Texas
23. Massachusetts
24. Maryland
25. South Carolina
26. Arizona
27. Alabama
28. Nevada
29. Alaska
30. New Hampshire
31. Colorado
32. Arkansas
33. Idaho
34. South Dakota
35. Nebraska
36. Utah
37. New York
Again, this list may look crazy to some of you, but again, this is what I see. The voters will be the ultimate judges.
FLIPS
GONERS
(1) Wyoming
(2) Hawaii
(3) Tennessee
(4) California
(5) Connecticut
WILL NOT GO DOWN WITHOUT A FIGHT (these were the toughest to rank)
(6) Oklahoma
(7) Kansas
(8) Florida
(9) Georgia
(10) Texas
(11) Iowa
(12) Rhode Island (Chafee)
(13) Pennsylvania
(14) Illinois
(15) Michigan
(16) Alabama
(17) South Carolina
(18) Wisconsin
(19) Maine
(20) Massachusetts
(21) Minnesota
HOLDS
MOST COMPETITIVE
(22) Arizona
(23) Colorado
(24) New Mexico
(25) Vermont
(26) Ohio
(27) Maryland
RACES TO WATCH
(28) Oregon
(29) Nevada
NO CONTESTS
(30) Alaska
(31) Idaho
(32) Arkansas
(33) New York
(34) New Hampshire
(35) Utah
(36) South Dakota
(37) Nebraska
1. Kansas
2. Tennessee
3. Wyoming
4. Oklahoma
5. Michigan
6. Iowa
7. Pennsylvania
8. Illinois
9. Hawaii
10. Ohio
11. Minnesota
12. Maine
13. Connecticut
14. Rhode Island
15. New Mexico
16. Oregon
17. Wisconsin
18. Florida
19. Vermont
20. Maryland
21. Massachusetts
22. California
23. Georgia
24. New Hampshire
Nothing else looks to be competitive. Today, I’d say 1-18 flip, 19-24 hold.
Safe Takeover (>95%)
1. Rhode Island (R to D/I)
2. Wyoming (D to R)
Likely Takeover (80-95%)
3. Kansas (D to R)
4. Hawaii (R to D)
5. Tennessee (D to R)
6. Oklahoma (D to R)
7. Iowa (D to R)
8. Michigan (D to R)
9. Pennsylvania (D to R)
10. Connecticut (R to D)
11. Minnesota (R to D/I)
Lean Takeover (60-80%)
12. Florida (R/I to D)
13. Illinois (D to R)
Tossup, Edge Takeover (50-60%)
14. California (R to D)
15. New Mexico (D to R)
16. Ohio (D to R)
17. Wisconsin (D to R)
Tossup, Edge Retention (40-50%)
18. Maine (D)
19. Georgia (R)
Lean Retention (20-40%)
20. Oregon (D)
21. Texas (R)
22. Maryland (D)
23. Vermont (R)
24. Massachusetts (D)
25. South Carolina (R)
Likely Retention (5-20%)
26. Arizona (R)
27. Idaho (R)
28. Nevada (R)
29. Alabama (R)
30. New Hampshire (D)
Safe Retention (<5%)
AK, AR, CO, NE, NY, SD, UT (no particular order)