Per the Union Leader:
Kelly Ayotte wins U.S. Senate primary, defeating Ovide Lamontagne by more than 1,600 votes.
Note: The final projection by the boys down at SSP Labs last night was Ayotte by 1838.
A total missed opportunity for the Tea Party Express (as was the surprisingly soft showing of Charlie Bass in NH-02 for like-minded movement conservatives). Oh well – we’ll always have Christine!
UPDATE: The final tally is Ayotte 53,055, Lamontagne 51,377 (a spread of 1,678).
Shame. Very interested in what PPP now have to say on Ayotte-Hodes. There is material there and she has already taken some damage.
But I’m not giving up on New Hampshire. It’s possible that Ayotte is damaged enough to give a boost to Hodes. And, maybe we’ll have a reverse Delaware, where the Tea Party stays home in November.
This is unfortunate as Lamontagne was much likelier to beat. Ovide was polling equal with Ayotte against Hodes, but his favorables were 15 points higher. Ayotte as the front runner faced the negative attacks from all comers, whereas Lamontagne hasn’t faced nearly as much mud slinging in his direction. Ayotte is basically bottomed out her favorables in that everything that can come out already has, and she’s still polling ahead of Hodes.
Not to mention Hodes hasn’t faced any negative attacks, so if anything Ayotte will probably widen her lead on Hodes.
While I hate to see her win, I think this shows that Kelly Ayotte is not as strong a candidate as the Washington Republicans thought she would be. While I still think she has the upper hand in the general election (for now), the fact that she barely won her primary against a candidate who last ran for office 14 years ago shows she has some definite vulnerabilities. We might have a better shot here than in Kentucky or Ohio.
This is definitely a bummer as I really think that Ovie could have had a lot more new material for Hodes to pummel and go after. That said this definitely is a “lean Republican” race right now. Given how the state is I can see Hodes still winning this one but he’s going to have to change the dynamic of the race. Seems as though Ayotte is not as clean as what she once once and she won the primary in a very unconvincing manner so I think Hodes has a shot here. Given the option of what happened last night with O’Donnell and Ayotte winning I’d have to take O’Donnell winning from a Dems perspective as it is very hard to imagine her beat Chris Coons even to the point that the DSCC may not need to invest any resources. I think that NH may soon warrant a DSCC investment as I believe that would be a better investment than say Missouri which they have invested in.
Unlike in DE-Sen, I’ve never been convinced that Lamontagne would have been the better bet for us. Ayotte is one of a trio of GOP Senate candidates with similar characteristics: affable women with uncontroversial political backgrounds and extremely vague positions on issues. The other two are Sue Lowden and Jane Norton, and as of now Ayotte is the only one of the three who’s won her primary. These candidates imploded not only because their vague positions didn’t appeal to teabaggers, but also because their whole model of candidacy makes them vulnerable to a vigorous challenge. Having no positions can make you seem to meet everyone’s needs, but it can also make you easier to paint into a corner (just as Buck convinced GOP voters that the conservative Norton was in fact a moderate).
So I actually think Ayotte, particularly a bloodied Ayotte, is quite vulnerable to Hodes in November, provided Hodes steps up his game. And on the flip side, Lamontagne was no Christine O’Donnell or Joe Miller. He’s an articulate and effective campaigner whose one weakness, his lack of money, would likely have been compensated for in November by outside groups. I’m rather glad we got Ayotte instead, particularly since she may well be a better Senator than Lamontagne if she’s elected.
Also, I know whom I DIDN’T want to face in November: Bill Binnie. And we dodged that bullet without breaking a sweat. So all in all, as good a situation as can be expected.
I am well on record here stating how bad Hodes has been as a candidate and I stand by that. The only person who could have won this would have been Lynch.
Ayotte 56
Hodes 44
It would be lean R either way. Ayotte was bloodied by the primary and by the controversy in her office.
you haz some splaining to do.
The rather primitive New Hampshire Secretary of State results page gives Ayotte’s final total as 53,044, not 53,055. Her margin is thus 1,667. (No breakdowns are yet available.)
Lamontaigne has until late this afternoon to request a recount, the margin being under 1.5% of the total vote.
The AP is still only showing 90.4% reported. No idea when they’ll pick up the final totals, if ever.
Sarah Palin, while endorsing Kelly Ayotte, called her the Granite Grizzly. Call Kelly Ayotte the Granite Grizzly whenever you refer to her, and that should drive her favorables down.
They’ve got Ayotte underwater at 35-47 favorables, virtually the same as Hodes’ 35-46.
More fun here:
http://www.publicpolicypolling…
This is better than I expected from PPP for the November numbers. I trust their latest DE and NH polls since they were good on accuracy in tough-to-poll primaries.
If Hodes can capitalize, he’s got a real shot.