SSP Daily Digest: 9/15

• AK-Sen: Two positive developments in the Alaska Senate race, as Scott McAdams seeks to introduce himself in this suddenly-competitive race. He was the recipient of a Mark Begich-headlined fundraiser yesterday in Washington DC, and he’s also out with a radio ad stressing his Alaskan roots and that he’ll keep fighting for “schools, hospitals, roads, and other nuts and bolts” – both key ways to differentiate himself from Joe Miller. As for Lisa Murkowski’s plans, she’s saying that she’ll make her intentions known by Friday whether she wants to make a write-in bid (but her plans to return to DC might be a “no” tea leaf).

• DE-Sen: After running far, far away from Christine O’Donnell last night, the NRSC has done an about-face today, giving her the maximum $42K (with Mitch McConnell chipping in his own $5K). I’d be surprised if they give any more than that; this seems like an attempt to placate the base before they go ballistic. Mitt Romney is also backing O’Donnell and giving his own $5K, apparently more worried about getting past the base in the 2012 GOP primary than support for O’Donnell might look for him in the 2012 general. Meanwhile, for those hoping for outright support for Chris Coons from Mike Castle, the Castle camp has said there won’t be an endorsement. (Assistance can take a variety of other forms, though, that aren’t as likely to be apparent.) Finally, if you’re wondering about how Christine O’Donnell sees herself within the Middle Earth context, now you can find out.

• NH-Sen: Although New Hampshire recount law would allow Ovide Lamontagne to seek a recount (since he finished within 1.5% of the total votes cast), he just opted against such an action, conceding the race to Kelly Ayotte. He had until the end of the day to request it.

• AK-Gov: It’s the last day to get his name on the ballot in Alaska in any capacity (and not really at issue, since the AIP and Libertarians weren’t open to subbing him as their candidate). That leaves 2nd place GOP gubernatorial finisher Bill Walker with a write-in bid as his only option, too, and he sounds like such a bid is “unlikely.”

• CA-Gov: I don’t know if all is truly well now between Bill Clinton and Jerry Brown, or Clinton is just feeling that he’s adequately established himself as the alpha dog in the wake of Brown’s capitulation following their ill-advised sparring, but Clinton gave his endorsement to Brown. It remains to be seen what exactly Clinton does on Brown’s behalf, though.

• CO-Gov: Tom Tancredo is able to stay on the ballot, said a U.S. District Court judge yesterday. He’d been the subject of a challenge from local GOPers, but the judge ruled that it wasn’t relevant that Tancredo had been a member of the Republican Party up until launching his Constitution Party bid.

• FL-Gov: The DGA just plowed $1 million into the Florida governor’s race, showing that they indeed think this (thanks to Rick Scott’s presence) is one of their best pickup opportunities but also that the route to doing so will be through a whole lot of money.

• GA-Gov: Nathan Deal is fighting back against reports that he’s in such financial disarray right now that he might need to sell his house to avoid default on a large business loan. The $2.3 million loan is due on Feb. 1, which exceeds the Deal family’s net worth. (This was an investment in a business started by his daughter which failed completely; it’s entirely separate from the family auto salvage business that’s at the heart of the Ethics complaint that chased him out of the House.)

• MD-Gov: Looks like we won’t have any lingering bad feelings here, unlike a lot of other establishment/Tea Party GOP primaries: Brian Murphy, who lost badly to Bob Ehrlich, has offered his endorsement to Ehrlich “if he’s willing to accept it.”

• DSCC: I guess Charles Schumer looked at yesterday’s election results and decided he didn’t have much to worry about in November from Jay Townsend. He just transferred $1 million to the DSCC from his own cash yesterday, on top of a previous $1 million in August. That leaves him with “only” about $22 million CoH… about the same amount of cash on hand that the DSCC has!

• DCCC, NRCC: The DCCC and NRCC are out with slew of independent expenditures advertisements. (Expect to see that phrase in every digest for the next month and a half.) The DCCC rolled out three new IEs in HI-01, MI-01, and AL-02. The NRCC’s buy is in 10 districts: most significantly in IN-02 (for $135K), but also AZ-01, CA-11, FL-02, MS-01, TX-17, VA-05, WI-07 (for $79K), and TN-08 (for $105K). If you want more details on the NRCC’s bid, you can check out the actual FEC filing.

• Self-funders: The Wall Street Journal has a helpful rundown on how self-funders are faring this year. As with, well, pretty much every other year, they’re faring quite poorly. Of the 10 biggest self-funders in this cycle’s Senate races, only three actually are still running (Linda McMahon, Carly Fiorina, and Ron Johnson); the other seven (Jeff Greene, Steve Pagliuca, Bill Binnie, David Malpass, Sue Lowden, Jim Bender, and Terrence Wall) all fell by the wayside, often in spectacular fashion. Same story in the House, where only three of the top 10 self-funders (Tom Ganley, Randy Altschuler, and Matt Doheny) are still functional.

• Redistricting: Any SSP readers out in Arizona? Here’s your chance to get out from behind Dave’s App and actually get your hands on the real thing! The state’s nonpartisan redistricting commission is seeking applications from the public for appointment to the 5-member commission.

• SSP TV:

• 60+ Assoc.: The health care astroturfers are running anti-Dem ads in WI-03, WI-08, NY-01, NY-20, and PA-10

• AFF: AFF launches a total $2.3 million buy in seven Dem districts: AL-02, GA-08, MI-01, MI-07, NJ-03, SC-05, and WV-01

• American Crossroads: Rove, Inc., is spending $330K on a MO-Sen ad and $550K on a CO-Sen ad

• FL-Sen: The US Chamber of Commerce hits Charlie Crist, pointing to his many flip-flops

• NV-Sen: The Sharron Angle camp has another anti-Harry Reid ad, calling him “the best friend an illegal immigrant ever had”

• NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand’s out with her first ad, more or less explicitly introducing herself despite her two years or service

• NC-02: Bob Etheridge isn’t leaving anything to chance this year, rolling out an ad that’s mostly a pleasant bio spot

• OH-18: I mentioned Zack Space’s anti-NAFTA ad yesterday, but here’s an actual link to the ad

• PA-06: Jim Gerlach’s first ad has him stepping away from the Republican label, saying he’s “an independent voice for taxpayers”

• PA-10: Chris Carney’s ad goes there, hitting Tom Marino on his ties to sketchy casino entrepreneur Louis DeNaples

• SC-05: Mick Mulvaney’s new ad hits John Spratt for having gone native in Washington

• WI-07: Is the DCCC taking a page from the Fred Davis “Celebrity” ad that seemed to bizarrely work against Obama? Their new ad against Sean Duffy is rife with clips from his days on The Real World

• Rasmussen:

• FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek (D) 23%, Marco Rubio (R) 41%, Charlie Crist (I) 30%

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 43%, John Kasich (R) 50%

• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D) 41%, Pat Toomey (R) 49%

• VT-Gov: Peter Shumlin (D) 49%, Brian Dubie (R) 46%

• VT-Sen: Patrick Leahy (D) 62%, Len Britton (R) 32%

200 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 9/15”

  2. I don’t understand why Schumer is sitting on $22 Million.  Even if he just donated 4 Million each to the DNC, DCCC and DSCC that would be amazing.  There is really no reason for him to be hoarding this money.

  3. NY-Sen B:  Man, Gillibrand just looks hotter than ever!  Easily the best looking member of Congress in either chamber.

    NV-Sen:  that’s the first good ad Angle has aired.  Rove’s group has aired decent ones on her behalf, but for Angle herself this is the first good one.  Of course it’s a double-edged sword and can help Reid with Hispanics as much, and perhaps more, than it helps Angle with swing voters or the GOP base.  But it’s a good ad.

  10. No independents, Republicans, or Democrats filed against her. Two Republicans ran write in campaigns, and atleast one (maybe both) surpassed the 10k vote threshold to get on the November ballot. Its a long shot, but she does have to actually campaign now (b/c we all know she’s so good at it!) http://wbztv.com/local/martha….

    He has declared victory.  

  12. “The Democrats’ indecision reflects the fact that Republicans are on offense in at least 12 Democrat-held states and we are leading in the polls in seven of those 12 states.”

    Obviously the latter category includes only four definite GOP poll leads IMO – ND, AR, IN and PA. Before yesterday I counted “offense” in 13 states. Those being the four previously mentioned plus DE, CO, NV, IL, WI, CA, WA, WV and CT. So either Cornyn is just (rightly) assuming a win in ND or they have written one of those off. So maybe the “endorsement” is just window dressing to satisfy the base.

    Now, does anybody want to hazard a guess which other seats he is talking about in which they are ahead? Can’t be DE, WV and CT. So three from CO, NV, IL, WI, CA and WA.

  13. Opinion Research polled these races in addition to WA-Sen, which is on the front page, and you can find them using the link provided there. The numbers (LV’s):

    NV-Sen

    Angle 42, Reid 41, Ashjan 5, NOTA 11

    NV-Gov

    Sandoval 58, Reid 31, NOTA 10

    OH-Sen

    Portman 52, Fisher 41

    OH-Gov

    Kasich 51, Strickland 44

    WA-Sen

    Murray 53, Rossi 44

  14. Richmond County (Staten Island) District Attorney Dan Donovan seems like the New York GOP’s best candidate for winning a statewide election this year.  He did not face a primary.  The Democratic nominee for Attorney General, State Senator Eric Schneiderman, narrowly won the primary last night.  He campaigned to the left.  He has never been a prosecutor.  Kathleen Rice, a longtime prosecutor and current District Attorney of Nassau County, probably was a better choice for the Democrats to be their nominee for the position.  There is also Andrew Cuomo wanting Rice to win and Cuomo and Schneiderman having an uneasy relationship.

    http://www.observer.com/2010/p…

    How do you think the campaign between Donovan and Schneiderman will proceed?

  15. and had no access to my computer. I knew the DE-Sen GOP primary was soon but assured myself of a Castle victory and didn’t pay much attention. My clock-radio woke me up wit the news of some “stunning extremist teaparty candidate victory” on Ireland am.

    Devestated. Lost a safe senate seat. This is our Coakley.

  17. In 2008, MN voted on a constitutional amendment to raise our states sales tax by 3/8 of 1% and spend it on outdoor recreation and sporting and also on the arts.  Bachmann told Sportsmen groups that she sported this amendment.  They just found out she doesn’t support it actually.

    While this district does have some suburbs, it is mainly rural and exurban and if this were to get enough traction, pissing off the hunters and fishers would not be good.  In middle school and high school, on the opening day of deer hunting season, about 1/5th of the guys would be gone.  And these are the ones who are pretty much her base as they are generally conservative folk.

  19. Ya’ll have been at this longer, so you know more. Is this just classic Gene Taylor? Or is he really worried about November, or, even preparing for a party-switch if Republicans need one seat or take the house?  

  21. We found a 45-44 generic ballot lead for Democrats on this poll but it’s among registered rather than likely voters and as we’ve said repeatedly the party’s problem this year isn’t really that voters are abandoning it but that its own voters aren’t planning to come out to the extent they need to.

    http://publicpolicypolling.blo…

  22. http://www.surveyusa.com/clien…

    Former Portland Trailblazer Dudley has 49%, former Governor Kitzhaber has 43%

    In an election today for  United States Senator  from Oregon, Incumbent Democrat Ron Wyden defeats Republican law school professor Jim Huffman, 54% to 38%

  25. A KSTP/SurveyUSA Poll

    Dayton (D) 38%

    Emmer (R) 36%

    Horner (IP) 18%

    Other/undecided 9%

    No Link yet, it should be on KSTP’s website sometime tonight.

  27. http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey…

    Don’t know where they’ll get the money to fund 75 “Young Guns,” and they probably won’t.  But they are handing out their plastic badges and toy pistols to 18 more make believe deputies.  How ridiculous are the Dems that they are about to hand these imbeciles a landslide?

    REGULATORS, MOUNT UP!!!

    CA-47 – Tran

    CO-03 – Tipton

    CO-07 – Frazier

    GA-02 – Keown

    GA-08 – Scott

    IL-17 – Schilling

    MN-01 – Demmer

    MO-04 – Hartzler

    NC-07 – Pantano

    NC-08 – Johnson

    NC-11 – Miller

    NH-01 – Guinta

    NH-02 – Bass

    NY-01 – Altschuler

    OH-18 – Gibbs

    WI-03 – Kapanke

    WI-08 – Ribble

    WV-03 – Maynard

  29. So says GW/Battleground poll dones by Lake Research and Tarrance Group.  Tarrance Group has had some apocalyptic results for Dems in individual races.

    Could this be real movement?  Could the tax cut debate be helping Dems?  Also, this shows a relatively low (8 point) enthusiasm gap in favor of Republicans.

    As always, grain of salt and wait for confirmation.

    http://www.politico.com/news/s…

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