WA-Sen: Murray Leads By 9 (Again)

Opinion Research Corp. for CNN/Time (pdf) (9/2-7, likely voters, no trendlines):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 53

Dino Rossi (R): 44

Undecided: 1

(MoE: ±3.5%)

I’ll admit that, as big a backer of the Elway Poll as I am, even I thought their Monday poll of Washington’s Senate race, giving Patty Murray a 9-point lead was maybe a few points too optimistic. Oh, me of little faith, because today CNN/Time is out with a poll that pretty well confirms it, giving Murray another 9-point spread and finding her all the way up at 53. That’s with a staggering 1% undecided with a month and a half to go — talk about two well-defined candidates! (The missing 2% responded either “Other” or “Neither.”)

Note that this batch of CNN polls switches to a likely voter model (instead of the strange decision with last week’s wave to do only registered voters)… and the LV model actually benefits Murray, which seems weird, but also indicative of Washington’s solidly blue status: Murray leads Rossi 50-44 among RVs. Rossi gets 95% of Republicans, while Murray gets 93% of Democrats — and there are simply more (self-identified, since there’s no party registration) Democrats in Washington. Murray polls 66% in King County, and leads by 5 in suburban Puget Sound, while Rossi leads by 20 in the rest of the state.

35 thoughts on “WA-Sen: Murray Leads By 9 (Again)”

  1. PDF, I think it’s likely that there’s either an error or Reid is actually doing better than it reports. That’s because the crosstabs suggest he has a much stronger standing in Washoe county than Clark county, and that seems unlikely.  

  2. There is absolutely no way in hell Dino Rossi can ever win a statewide race in Washington. If he couldn’t beat Gregoire, he’s not going to be able to beat an incumbent as strong as Murray. Only in Scotty Ras’s fevered dreams is this race remotely competitive. I think 9 points is entirely accurate.

    If the GOP wants a Senate seat in Washington, they need to come up with a real candidate, not someone who half the state already loathes.  

  3. don’t enter a Senate race as late as Rossi did and expect to win. It has rarely ever been done. The last time was Lautenberg in 2002 I think and that was special circumstances. I never understood all the hype Rossi got. He is not a good candidate and Murray is not a weak one either. Rossi has ran a rather crappy campaign so far. A lot of hype for nothing.  

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