SurveyUSA (9/12-14, likely voters, 8/2-4 in parens):
Mark Dayton (DFL): 38 (46)
Tom Emmer (R): 36 (32)
Tom Horner (I): 18 (9)
Other: 5 (n/a)
Undecided: 4 (13)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
For a sec I thought, “That was one hell of a primary bounce!” But no – SUSA’s last poll was taken before the DFL primary. And man is there a lot of churn here. Among the named candidates, we’re looking at 21 points of net delta, and that doesn’t even account for the 9-point drop in undecideds. Has the race really changed so much in month-and-a-half, to go from D+14 to D+2? Or was that earlier Dayton lead just way too gaudy?
Well, for starters, things are back to “normal” – at least, normal for SUSA-land – which is to say, the kids love them some Tom Emmer, with the youngest cohort supporting him at 46-30 clip, the only group among which he leads. In August, by contrast, Dayton led this bracket 43-35. It’s also worth pointing out that there were huge gyrations among all age groups. The good news is that Dayton does better with his own party than Emmer does with his, winning Dems 74-7 (vs. Republicans going 72-11 for Emmer).
Given that SurveyUSA’s June poll of the race showed a three-point Dayton lead, it’s tempting to write the middle poll off as an outlier. But the poll before that gave Emmer an eight-point lead. So wild swings seem to be the order of the day for SUSA – 11 points, then 11 points again, and now 12 points. I don’t really think this race is that volatile – do you?