Bellwether Counties: Analysis

In nearly every state, there are certain bellwether counties that are good indicators of which candidate will win the state, barring extreme regional polarization.  In this post, I will examine the bellwether counties for every single state, barring the few that don’t seem to have one.

Alabama: Tuscaloosa County

  Home to the University of Alabama, this is not a generic rural Alabama district.  However, it is one of only a few counties with a white majority and a large black minority.  Home to Tuscaloosa, the fifth largest city in the state, it is relatively urban/suburban.  A Dixiecrat like Bobby Bright could probably win the state without this county by doing well in rural areas, but any other Democrat needs to win here.  The college voters provide a base that leans Republican but is still gettable for a conservaDem.  Besides the city of Tuscaloosa, this county has one suburb, Northport, and then outlying rural areas.  Seeing how conservative this area generally is shows just how hard it is for a Democrat to win statewide in Alabama.  It last voted for a Democrat for President in 1976, the last time the state was won by one.  The last Senate candidate to win it was Dick Shelby in 1992, before he switched parties.  It did vote for Siegelman in 2002 when he barely lost.  

Alaska doesn’t have counties, so I’m not listing it here.  

Arizona: Najavo County

While demographically not at all representative of Arizona, it is politically.  Despite being plurality Native American, the extremely conservative White base makes this a county that leans Republican, much like the state it is a part of.  Mostly rural and including huge Navajo, Apache, and Hopi reservations, the county last voted for a Democrat statewide in Janet Napolitano’s 2006 gubernatorial romp.  Dennis DeConcini’s 1988 election was the last time it did for Senate, however, and Bill Clinton won it both times.  

Other states will continue to be added over the flip:

Arkansas: Howard County

Tiny Howard County serves as the bellwether of one of the fastest-shifting states in the nation.  Although its population is under 15,000, it is demographically close to the state as a whole (a bit over 20% Black).  It is a dry county.  Presidentially, it last voted for a Democrat in 1996 (not surprisingly).  It’s voted for the winning candidate (read Democrat) in every Senate election in the past 20 years, as well as the winning candidate in every governor election (Beebe, Huckabee, Tucker, Clinton) in that time-span.  Like most of Arkansas, it is a very poor county.

California: Imperial and San Benito Counties

Both these counties are similar, they flipped blue in 1992 like California and haven’t turned back; they both are majority Hispanic, and they are both quite rural.  San Benito County, home of the acclaimed Hollister, is in the Salinas Valley and the rural mountains east of it.  Imperial County is on the Mexican and Arizona borders and is home to El Centro, Calexico, Brawley, and Imperial, all of which are probably best classified as large towns.  2/3 speak Spanish as their first language, but due to non-citizenship of many, the county is only moderately Democratic.  They both voted for Arnold twice, but voted for Gray Davis twice before voting to recall him just one year later.  However, San Benito County voted for Feinstein over Wilson in 1990.  They both voted against Feinstein in her first election to the Senate, 1994, and San Benito also voted against Boxer in 1992.  

Colorado: Larimer County

This should come as no surprise to anybody that followed the 2008 election, with this being key to Obama and Betsy Markey’s victories.  Larimer County is the 7th-largest in the state.  Racially, it is a bit less Latino than the state, but it has many moderate surburbanites and is well-educated, much like Colorado.  The main population centers are Fort Collins, the fifth largest city in the state, and its smaller southern neighbor, Loveland.  Together, they comprise the Ft. Collins Metro Area, which is kind of part of the Denver Area as well.  It went blue in both 2008 and 1992, the years that Democrats won the state in recent times.  For Senate, it has mirrored the state in every election since 1990 (all my data goes back to that year, so when I say in every election, I mean since then).  For Governor, it has done the same, making it a perfect bellwether county.

Connecticut: New London County

Yes, counties don’t matter in New England, but they will here.  In the Southeast of the state, this county flipped along with the state in 1992.  The main towns are New London, Groton, and Norwich, and it is home to the Coast Guard Academy.  With the outlier of 1994, when it voted 3rd party for governor, it has gone along with the state in every statewide election.  It is the base of Joe Courtney’s congressional district.

Delaware is too small for this to be relevant

Florida: Hillsborough County

Located along the famed I-4 corridor, this is one of the most famed swing counties.  The last time it didn’t support the statewide presidential winner (in a swing state, no less) was 1960, when it voted for Kennedy.  In the other close elections (2004,2000,1992, 1976, 1968, 1964) it always went with the state.  In 1994, it voted Bush over Chiles for Governor, and it voted Castor over Martinez in 2004, but on the whole, it’s very accurate at predicting who will win the state.  Look for it in November to see if Alex Sink will win.  The county itself is very large, at 1.2 million people and still growing.  It’s a little under 60% White, relatively close to the state’s population.  Tampa, at 350,000 people, is nearing the top 50 nationwide.  The city is barely majority-minority.  There are also many suburbs:

  Plant City, a large strawberry producer. and located in the rural eastern part of the county

  Temple Terrace, built pre-Depression as a golf community

  Bloomingdale, an affluent community

  University, home of USF, a very poor community, with 30%+ in poverty

  Riverview, a middle-class suburb

  Egypt Lake-Leto, a poor Hispanic suburb

  Keystone, a very affluent suburb

  Lake Magdalene, middle class as well

  Palm River, a middle-class diverse area

  Brandon, the largest suburb at nearly 100,000 people.  

  Lutz, upper-middle class

  Citrus Park, another diverse middle-class area

  Westchase, another wealthy area

  Town n Country, home to 80,000 and a mix of White and Hispanic

  Greater Northdale, upper middle class

  Greater Carrolwood, see above

   

51 thoughts on “Bellwether Counties: Analysis”

  1.  Santa Barbara County which voted just 1% less than Kerry’s statewide percentage in California as well as Obama’s. Santa Barbara represents California too with white liberals, inland conservatives and Hispanic communities.

    Also in Colorado, Jefferson County should be added which was pretty much the same with Kerry and Obama’s statewide percentages.  

  2. While Feinstein was elected to her first full term in 1994, she, like Boxer, was elected in 1992; since Feinstein was sworn in immediately while Boxer wasn’t sworn in until January 2003 Feinstein is the senior Senator.

    I enjoyed the diary, and look forward to the next installment in the series.

  3. The problem is that there are three distinct regions of the state:

    – The Rurals: heavily Republican, sparsely populated, overwhelmingly old and white

    – Washoe: interesting split of urban, suburban, “resort community”, and rural; a bit on the older and whiter side; long Republican history, then recently trended Democratic; good number of Independents

    – Clark: Vegas, baby! mostly urban and suburban with just a bit of rural; diverse with growing Latin@ and Asian-American communities; much younger; considered “Democratic base of Nevada”

    So it’s hard to find a “micro” version of Nevada as a whole… Probably the closest one can get is the 3rd Congressional District here in Clark. It’s a unique mix of urban East Side Vegas, suburban Henderson & Southwest, and the outlying rural areas north along the 15 and south along the 95. In Presidential Elections, Democrats only slightly outperformed the state here. And without a doubt, Harry Reid probably wins statewide if he wins NV-03 (which also probably means Dina Titus wins).

  4. I look forward to seeing the next installment. And I’ll help you out with my home state: Hampden County, while not particularly representative of the state culturally, almost always votes with the winner in MA and usually its results mirror the overall results (It’s about a point more Republican than the state as a whole, making it a must win for any GOPer here.) Hampden is in the southwestern part of the state and is home to the declining industrial city of Springfield, a couple suburbs, and some small rural towns.

  5. I would nominate Tarrant County.  It generally votes right around the statewide averages, though this wasn’t really the case pre-1990 (I would suggest that Tarrant County started voting Republican before rural Texas did.)  It’s not a perfect bellwether; it’s a little whiter and less Hispanic than the state as a whole, and slightly more educated, but it’s a good mix of urban and suburban and basically serves as a bellwether for Texas these days.

  6. I assumed you intended this to be the “A-D” portion of a series of diaries–I look forward to the rest!–but for Ohio I’d go with Wood County (Bowling Green/Toledo suburbs). It has a half-century long record of going for the statewide winner in presidential races, except for going for Jerry Ford, of neighboring Michigan, in 1976.

  7. Ruskin- In the southern part of the county, fairly rural

    Sun City- Home to a lot of the older folks in the county

    Fishhawk- Very affluent, upper-middle class area just outside of Bloomingdale (much more affluent than Bloomingdale)

    Im from the Bloomingdale area, the place is fairly conservative as is Fishhawk, Places like Riverview tend to be more liberal. Brandon leans D most of the time, until you get to the border of the Brandon/Bloomingdale area where there are a few huge churches with a lot of Christian fundamental voters.

  8. Don’t forget these when you update with other states.

    Tarrant County is home to Fort Worth, Arlington and Southlake, the last being one of the wealthiest in the country. It almost exactly mirrors the statewide vote, it is very conservative from the north (Southlake, Grapevine, Euless, Hurst) 50/50 in Arlington and Fort Worth and leans D in Grand Prairie and South Arlngton. The reversal of TX GOP dominance (in state legislative races) started in Tarrant County after 2004. One exception (though in a primary) to it’s bellwheter-ness, was in the 2008 Dem primaries, Obama won it (primarly because of a surge of voters in South Tarrant County) but Hillary won the statewide vote.

    DeLay divided it so as to eliminate Martin Frost and now the county is split between Kay Granger (TX-12), Joe Barton (TX-6), Mike Burgess (TX 26) and to a lesser extent Kenny Marchant (TX24).

    Loudoun County is still GOP leaning on the state level but tilting Dem on the national level. Kerry came closer than Clinton but Obama won it exactly by the same margin he won the state. It is very white but not establishment GOP friendly (no firebreathers welcomed here). It’s Frank Wolf’s distrct and includes McClean. VA-10 is not as wealthy as VA-11 as a whole, but Loudoun County is wealthier than Fairfax County. Obama’s coalition is NoVa + Charlottesville + Richmond + Hampton Roads. So long as Obama keeps that coalition, he will win VA again.  

  9. Bexar County Texas, i.e. San Antonio voted correctly for President 12 of the last 13 times.  11 out of 13 taking into account the 2000 election where the loser won.

  10. that i use only presidential data from 1988-2008 in determining bellwether.  so these are my results based on that, feel free to disagree, but Santa Barbara County was too conservative in 2000 to qualify.

  11. In Washington State, I would nominate Snohomish County,a county that is basically essential to any Democratic victory in the state (with the exception of Gregoire in 2004, though we all know how solid that victory was). In the south, it is basically suburbs of Seattle that are centered around wealthy Edmonds and the more working class and diverse Lynnwood, and as a whole votes fairly Democratic. The “historical” industrial center is the port city of Everett, which is the county seat and largest city (with about 100,000 people) and is a Democratic stronghold as well. The rest of the county ranges from the swingy, fast-growing Marysville to more rural, Republican areas. The county reflects the regions of WA State pretty well, and has closely followed the state results in the last few presidential elections.

  12. I would agree with Stark county for Ohio. Minnesota is a little harder. It’s basically the Twin Cities, the Burbs, the Iron Range, and everything else.

    I’d probably say Blue Earth county. It’s mostly just the city of Mankato, which the Dems always need if they expect to win statewide.

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