SSP Updates 41 Race Ratings

Swing State Project is rolling out another round of updates to our House, Senate and Gubernatorial race ratings charts. This may seem like an alarming large number to do all at once, especially since almost all the changes are favorable to Republicans, but that’s not in response to any particular event or series of events. Mostly, we’re just playing catchup after having been a little slow in performing a global update since late July, and obviously the general environment deteriorated over August for Dems (although we might have seen a slight uptick in their fortunes, at least in terms of generic ballot tests and mindless Beltway CW, in the last week).

  • AZ-Sen: Races to Watch to Safe R
  • CT-Sen: Likely D to Lean D
  • IN-Sen: Lean R to Likely R
  • MO-Sen: Tossup to Lean R
  • OH-Sen: Tossup to Lean R
  • PA-Sen: Tossup to Lean R

  • AZ-Gov: Tossup to Lean R
  • CO-Gov: Lean D to Likely D
  • CT-Gov: Tossup to Lean D
  • IL-Gov: Tossup to Lean R
  • ME-Gov: Tossup to Lean R
  • NH-Gov: Safe D to Likely D
  • NM-Gov: Tossup to Lean R
  • NV-Gov: Lean R to Likely R
  • WI-Gov: Tossup to Lean R

  • AR-02: Lean R to Likely R
  • AZ-01: Lean D to Tossup
  • AZ-05: Lean D to Tossup
  • CA-47: Likely D to Lean D
  • CO-03: Likely D to Tossup
  • CO-07: Likely D to Lean D
  • CT-05: Likely D to Lean D
  • FL-02: Lean D to Tossup
  • IA-01: Safe D to Likely D
  • IL-11: Lean D to Tossup
  • IL-14: Lean D to Tossup
  • IL-17: Likely D to Lean D
  • KY-03: Likely D to Lean D
  • LA-02: Likely D to Lean D
  • ME-01: Safe D to Likely D
  • ME-02: Safe D to Likely D
  • MI-07: Lean D to Tossup
  • MI-09: Likely D to Lean D
  • NY-29: Lean R to Likely R
  • OR-05: Likely D to Lean D
  • PA-03: Lean D to Tossup
  • PA-07: Tossup to Lean R
  • PA-08: Lean D to Tossup
  • SC-05: Lean D to Tossup
  • WA-02: Likely D to Tossup
  • WA-03: Tossup to Lean R

39 of these changes favor Republicans; 2 races have moved in the Democratic direction.

65 thoughts on “SSP Updates 41 Race Ratings”

  1. …is very bad for my morale.

    I have to consciously remind myself that this is an update from 2 months ago, so nothing I didn’t already know.

    The only one that stuck out at me was IL-14 to tossup.  It doesn’t surprise me in the abstract, but I didn’t know Foster was considered as vulnerable as Halverson.

  2. This is the only one I really disagree with. In Washington, the primary is usually a good predictor of the general and the Ds beat the Rs by a decent margin. If anything, I would expect Larsen to overperform his primary showing by a bit because (1) the R primary was more competitive for both the House race and the governor’s race and (2) Dems have been slower to get interested in this election than Reeps.  

  3. That is the direction indicated by both candidates internal polls. SurveyUSA polls indicate otherwise but they have been really suspect in this state so far this election season

  4. Driehaus? Kilroy? Boccieri? AR-01? IN-08? WI-07? I don’t understand the rationale behind a lot of these ratings. The Republicans in those seven House races all have a decisive advantage, about enough for a lean Republican rating.

    I was more confused by what you didn’t change than by what you did change. I suppose you think it’s probably early to make those sorts of changes, but still.

  5. I’m thinking at some point CO-Gov has to become Safe-D. Maes will probably lose to Tancredo, what a joke he is. I’d also probably toss AZ-Gov to Likely R thanks to SB-1070 and MI-Gov to Likely R (if it’s not there already). Maybe put KS-04 to Lean Rep given how much of a dbag Pompeo is.  

  6. This is the one florida house race that I think the top of the ticket will be a drag since Rubio is from the handle and Scott should be able to win this even if he loses by 5-7.

  7. It’s the very definition of a tossup, it should NOT be Lean R. Open seat, swingy district that Obama won narrowly, outcome is turnout-dependent, and off-years in KS swing Democratic but this is a Republican year. Plus, no polling to speak of.

    Candidate-wise, Yoder’s moderate reputation is long gone, his campaign has been weak once hitting the general (his commercials were terrible, as noted on SSP) and again, we’ve seen no polling either way. And Stephene Moore just keeps discovering strengths–telegenic, good commercials, good fundraising, can deliver an attack line while still seeming sweet.

    I think you’re just biased against Kansas.  :)

  8. Is there any evidence other than the American Action Forum/Ayres McHenry (R) poll for moving Loretta Sanchez to Lean D?  CA-20 also has an R internal showing a 2-point race, and that’s still listed as Safe D.  I can’t see how Loretta is beaten without Costa, Cardoza, and probably McNerney going down first.

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