CO, DE, WI: New CNN/Time Polls

Opinion Research for CNN/Time (9/17-21, likely voters, no trend lines):

CO-Sen:

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 44

Ken Buck (R): 49

Undecided: 3

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Among registered voters, Bennet has a 47-44 lead.

CO-Gov:

John Hickenlooper (D): 47

Dan Maes (R): 21

Tom Tancredo (ACP): 29

Undecided: 1

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Interestingly, a registered voter sample doesn’t boost Hickenlooper’s score much at all; he scores 48% to Tancredo’s 26% under that sample. If only he’d be able to rub off some of his magic on Bennet…

DE-Sen:

Chris Coons (D): 55

Christine O’Donnell (R): 39

Undecided: 2

Chris Coons (D): 37

Mike Castle (R): 55

Undecided: 2

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Amusingly, CNN/TIME decided to rub some salt into the wounds of the NRSC, finding that Castle would’ve been dominating right now if only he hadn’t been teabagged to death by the brain-dead GOP base. Where Castle dominated among independents and stole 33% of Democrats, O’Donnell loses indies by 7% and only takes 6% of Democrats (while losing 15% of Republicans to Coons). As for the RV numbers, Coons’ lead expands to 59-34 without the likely voter screen.

WI-Sen:

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 45

Ron Johnson (R): 51

Undecided: 2

(MoE: ±3%)

The enthusiasm gap is, unsurprisingly, rough here: among registered voters, Feingold leads by 48-46.

WI-Gov:

Tom Barrett (D): 42

Scott Walker (R): 53

Undecided: 2

(MoE: ±3%)

Barrett even trails among registered voters, though by a slimmer 48-45 margin.

90 thoughts on “CO, DE, WI: New CNN/Time Polls”

  3. Reid and Boxer are pulling their own asses over the line, so we don’t need to provide them with GIANT DSCC expenditures. ND, AR, and IN are gone at this point. Feingold has to close his own race before the national party can bail him out (DAMMIT! WHY RUSS OF ALL PEOPLE?!?!?!?) Gillibrand and Schumer I expect will form a tag team and be bankrolling each other to pull herself over the line if this NY closing meme is true.

    Final result, HOW (not $, how to spend it) does the DSCC bankroll us to victories in IL, CO, PA, and WV*? And will there be any left for NH, MO, or KY?

    *Ok, we know what to do in WV, Manchin has to sell the voters as to why him, why he would be as good of a legislator as he was a governor, if not better since he has to leave one job for he other. We got Raese is sucky, but people vote for people, not against them (otherwise, Reid would have a decisive lead in NV).

  5. Unless Sestak turns that around, that’s the race. Likewise Buck vs. Bennet in Colorado’s Denver burbs. It’s surprising how similar those races are.

    Meanwhile, Coons actually loses to O’Donnell outside of New Castle county. Not to worry though!

  7. I guess Maes and Tancredo are fighting for the same base, but would it be presumptuous to assume that one of them sinks soon, meaning their combined vote won’t exceed Hickenlooper’s?  If Maes starts flagging (and 24k in the bank is a good indication of that), it’s unlikely that all his votes go to Tancredo, and it may well be what’s needed to pull Bennett out of his hole.  I imagine the Hickenlooper/Buck voters aren’t particularly prevalent in any case, so Bennett’s relying heavily on depressed Republican turnout and strong Hickenlooper coattails.

  9. But I’m still in utter shock at how insane the Delaware and Colorado GOP voters turned out to be. They kicked a guaranteed Senate seat and at the very least a competitive Gov race (had McInnis dropped out and let someone like Norton jump in) to the curb for no discernible reason. At least to me. But then again maybe I’m not crazy.  I definitely expect Tancredo to out poll Maes in CO.

    As for the rest of it, looks like this confirms PPP’s results in Wisc. This doesn’t bode well for Lassa and Kagan going forward, especially against a couple of strong candidates.

  10. here:

    Q: [Candidate names rotated]

    If the election for New York Governor were today, who would you vote for? Republican Carl Paladino? Democrat Andrew Cuomo? Or another candidate?

    A: Paladino (R) 40% Cuomo (D) 49% Other 8% Undecided 3%

    Q: [Candidate names rotated]

    New York will also elect two United States Senators. In the first US Senate election, for a 2-year term … If the election were today, who would you vote for? Republican Joe DioGuardi? Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand? Or another candidate?

    A: DioGuardi (R) 44% Gillibrand (D) 45% Other 8% Undecided 4%

    Q: [Candidate names rotated]

    In the second US Senate election, for a full 6-year term … If the election were today, who would you vote for? Republican Jay Townsend? Democrat Chuck Schumer? Or another candidate?

    A: Townsend (R) 33% Schumer (D) 54% Other 10% Undecided 3%

    Q: Is your opinion of Carl Paladino … favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion of Carl Paladino?

    A: Favorable 35% Unfavorable 31% Neutral 21% No Opinion 13%

    Q: Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo … favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion of Andrew Cuomo?

    A: Favorable 47% Unfavorable 27% Neutral 23% No Opinion 4%

    Q: Which of these issues is currently the most important one facing New York State?

    A: Jobs 38% Taxes 27% Health Care 8% Government Spending 13% Public Corruption 7% Business Friendly 5% Other 2%

  11. It will include Rick Lazio (as the others should have).  It will be a registered voter only poll (which would be inconsistent with their recent polling which have been all LV’s).

    Take with as many grains of salt as you wish!

  12. Polling just registered voters here introduces pro-Republican bias, due to our at the polls registration. Real elections include many more 1st-time young voters. In 1992, my downtown Madison precinct recorded “112% turnout,” as the registrants outnumbered previously registered no-shows.

    Medical Marijuana referenda in Dane County (Madison) and River Falls will boost these 1st time numbers.

Comments are closed.