So I figure like a lot of you already have, I need to put my ass on the line and make a projection this year. I delayed this as long as I could, wanting to see how things shake out and hoping things got a bit better for Team Blue. They did, and they didn’t: we got Christie O’Donnell, but Russ Feingold is now locked in a tight race.
So here we go. For the record, I have a Republican pickup of six seats right now. Pickups are designated in bold. I have determined for my purposes, its cowardly to call a race a tossup, so I don’t have that category in my rankings. I don’t have the Dems picking up any Republican seats, although I hold out the most hope in Kentucky. I’m going to try to do this for governors races (and if I get really ambitious, the House) at a later date.
Safe Dem
Oregon – Ron Wyden – D-incumbent
New York A – Chuck Schumer – D-incumbent
Maryland – Barbara Milkulski – D-incumbent
Hawaii – Daniel Inouye – D-incumbent
Vermont – Patrick Leahy – D-incumbent
Safe Republican
Alabama – Richard Shelby – R-incumbent
Arizona – John McCain – R-incumbent
Idaho – Mike Crapo – R-incumbent
South Dakota – John Thune – R-incumbent
Iowa – Chuck Grassley – R-incumbent. I thought this one might have more potential at one point, but I don’t see it now.
Oklahoma – Tom Coburn – R incumbent
South Carolina – Jim DeMint – R incumbent.
Georgia – Johnny Isakson – R incumbent
Kansas – Jerry Moran – Republican challenger
Utah – Mike Lee – Republican challenger
North Dakota – John Hoeven – Republican challenger. Wouldn’t it have been great if Kos had been able to convince the tea partiers to challenge him?
Likely Democrat
Delaware – Chris Coons vs. Christine O’Donnell. If Mike Castle decides to run here, I might revisit this. But for now, I’m assuming he doesn’t do a write in, and Coons wins it pretty big.
New York B – Kirstin Gillibrand v. Joe DioGuardi. It’s possible DioGuardi could pick up some momentum in the next month. Gillibrand is still somewhat unknown downstate, but even thought this might get closer I think DioGuardi is too weak of a candidate
Lean Democrat
California – Barbara Boxer vs. Carly Fiorna. Boxer has never been the most popular politician, but Obama is not as unpopular in California as elsewhere and Fiorna is a very beatable opponent. This might be close, but Boxer will pull it out.
Washington – Patty Murray vs. Dino Rossi. I’ve been pleasantly surprised at the way this race is going. I was very worried about Murray a month ago. Not so much now.
Connecticut – Richard Blumenthal vs. Linda McMahon. I worry about this one, but in the end, I just don’t see how McMahon overcomes the anchor that is pro-wrestling in mostly white collar Connecticut. Blumenthal needs to step up his game though. This needs to change to likely Republican.
Nevada – Harry Reid vs. Sharon Angle. The polls have been close, and some might argue Angle has a bit of momentum, but I think Reid pulls it out because minorities in Nevada are consistently underpolled, and the Democratic machine is strong.
West Virginia – Joe Manchin vs. John Raese. I’m actually more worried about this one than any of my other Lean Democrats. This is definitely 1996 Nebraska Senate Race (popular incumbent governor is defeated by underdog Republican) vs. 2010 PA-12 (Democrat wins against business guy in potentially hostile non-urban environment). I think Raese is a weaker candidate than Chuck Hagel in 1996, so I’m still giving this to Manchin. But it’s gonna be close.
Pennsylvania – Joe Sestak vs. Pat Toomey. I know, I know. The polls don’t show this right now. But Sestak should not be underestimated as a campaigner, and I still think once he gets on television he will close just like he did against Specter. Also, I still see Toomey as too conservative for Pennsylvania. I hope so, anyway.
Likely Republican
Arkansas – Blanche Lincoln vs. John Boozeman. I think this one will be closer than anyone predicts. Lincoln has a lot of money, and Boozeman seems to me to be a weak candidate. But I think it’s too large of gap at this point for Blanche to overcome, especially without any union support.
Indiana – Dan Coates vs. Brad Ellsworth I had high hopes for this one a couple of months ago, but Ellsworth isn’t getting the job done, and Coates is proving to be a pretty good fundraiser, and non-crazy. I just don’t see Ellsworth making up lost ground at this point.
North Carolina – Richard Burr vs. Elaine Marshall. Burr was/is definitely vulnerable. But Marshall is the wrong candidate running in the wrong year.
Florida – Charlie Crist vs. Kendrick Meek vs. Marco Rubio. Some people may see this as premature, but unless something happens to change the dynamic (say, Meek endorsing Crist or vice versa), I think Rubio wins this pretty easily.
Louisiana – David Vitter v. Charlie Melancon. For the forseeable future, there is going to be no right year for a Democrat to run for Senate in the Louisiana. Melancon is also hurt by the gulf oil spill fading as an issue.
Ohio – Lee Fisher vs. Rob Portman. Like Florida, some people may say this is premature, but Fisher is fading fast, with no money to make up lost ground. I expect the DSCC to abandon this race just as the Republicans abandoned Mike DeWine in 2006.
Lean Republican
Kentucky – Rand Paul vs. Jack Conaway. I do think this is still a race, but Paul is still a couple of gaffes away from losing. The debate next week will be crucial.
Alaska – Joe Miller vs. Lisa Murkowski vs. Scott McAdams. I go back and forth on whether this is lean or likely Republican, but I do think Murkowski’s write in campaign will hurt Miller more than McAdams (as opposed to if she were on the ballot). Still, I don’t see this as a genuine tossup yet.
New Hampshire – Kelly Ayotte vs. Paul Hodes. I’ve always thought Hodes is a weak campaigner, and Ayotte has got a united Republican party on her side. New Hampshire is moving rapidly to blue, but I’m not sure it’s rapidly enough to save Hodes, although Palin’s endoresement of Ayotte will hurt her from this point forward.
Missouri – Robin Carnahan vs. Roy Blunt. Actually, this should be Robin Carnahan vs. the national environment, because in the 2006 or 2008 she would have probably beat Blunt easily. Not this year, though, and Obama is very unpopular in Missouri. This is tossup, but favors the Republican at this point.
Colorado – Ken Buck v. Michael Bennett I think Buck is a stronger candidate than people give him credit for, stronger than Angle and Paul certainly. This is one race that I expect to trend against the Democrats as time goes on, although Bennett will be helped by the clusterf*ck for the Republicans in the governors race.
Illinois – Mark Kirk vs. Alexi Giannoulias This one may surpise some people, and it’s the pursest tossup of any race I have on my list. What makes me think Kirk wins: there’s a lot of unhappiness with Democrats in Illinois right now, Kirk is moderate, Kirk gets the benefit of Brady’s downstate pull and Pat Quinn is turning out to be a disaster of a candidate. Kirk is so far the luckiest Republican of this cycle – if the Illinois primary had been a couple of months later, he would have been tea-partied out of existence.
Wisconin – Russ Feingold vs. Ron Johnson This one breaks my heart, because I love Russ Feingold as a Senator. But I don’t think anyone can doubt he’s behind at this point, though by how much is debatable. He needs to change the momentum here, fast.
Even if you think Sestak will close strong, there’s simply no way you can rate this race anything but “Tossup” or “Lean GOP”.
I really like that you make a concrete decision on each race–the professional forecasters tend to over-use the wobbly “Tossup” and sometimes seem to use that category as an outlet to avoid making any sort of prediction at all.
I agree with everything on here except PA and perhaps IL, which I change my mind on daily it seems, and second your opinion on Ken Buck. I have spoken with a couple of friends (Democrats) I have in Colorado and both have told me that the GOP is really fired up about Buck and that their enthusiasm for him is making up for the governor’s race blowout. In other words, they think Buck is the headline of the GOP ticket and it’s going to be him and not Maes or Tancredo that drives conservatives to the polls. That plus the polling inclines me to rank the race as Lean R, like you have.
But if I had to choose one way or another, I’d switch Colorado & Illinois with Pennsylvania. The Colorado & Illinois Democratic field operations seem much stronger than Pennsylvania’s, and both Buck’s & Kirk’s flaws seem much more obvious than Toomey’s (I know we know, but it seems many PA voters forgot his stint at Club for Growth).
Otherwise, I’d put them all at “Tossup” at this point. All 3 can still swing one way or another at this point.
And I wouldn’t put North Carolina and Florida as “Likely R” just yet.
Anyway, the rest of the list looks sound. Sadly, Feingold is flailing in Wisconsin. But thankfully, Boxer is bouncing back in California, Reid is doing what he needs to do here in Nevada, and Murray is looking stronger in Washington. At the end of the day I think we’ll win the entire “West Coast Trifecta” (CA, NV, & WA), so IMHO the DSCC really needs to focus on CO, IL, & PA.
Definitely move Kentucky to Lean D, and my gut feeling is that Ken Buck won’t win. And I really hope so, cause we 55 to survive till 2016 (When there will be at least nine pickup opportunities, plus if Toomey, Paul, Buck, Kirk or Johnson win, so up to 14 opportunites six years from now.)
I hope the democrats win the three races.
PA-sen and NH-sen are races for fight too.
Forecasting a loss of 7 seats: AR, CO, IL, IN, ND, PA, WI.
Republican Targets:
Safe R Pickup: AR, IN, ND
Lean R Pickup: PA, WI
Tossup/Tilt R: CO, IL
Tossup/Tilt D: NV, WV
Lean D Retention: CA, WA
Likely D Retention: CT, NY(B)
Democratic Targets:
Lean R Retention: KY, MO, NH
I’m very impressed with your PA Senate call. I also believe that at the end of this election cycle that Sestak will pull this race out. I feel more comfortable about PA than CO. Sestak appears to be a good fit for PA while Toomey is more of Santorum 2.0.
I have ND, AR and IN as goners with PA and WI as likely goners and hard to change at this point. Realistically the floor would be these 5 plus IL, CO, WV and NV which still would only net 50 seats. I don’t see Murray and Boxer as seriously in danger now. Right now the Dems can realistically do some work (in order of possibility that it will work) to limit their losses to 5 seats:
1. I know that Alexi is a terrible candidate but so is Kirk. This race has really taken a huge backseat and I really have to think that in a state this blue with Obama as the President that turnout is going to have to improve and will only help Alexi as Kirk is not generating massive enthusiasm. I don’t see Brady being able to carry Kirk as Brady is more of an anti-Blago then anything else. This is a very expensive state but an investment in Chicago would pay major dividends. Team blue obviously really didn’t help themselves in recruiting here.
2. Dems need to put whatever they can into helping Michael Bennet. Buck is going to be able to draw out the base this year but Bennet needs to continue to hammer him for some of his views (abortion, high heels, student loans are unconstitutional, etc.) and get that Denver turnout. I am more bullish here than in WI in part because Colorado has been fast trending towards team blue and has more minority voters that can be courted so it is possible to get those voters out.
3. Conway needs to get it in gear as KY is a legitimate pickup opportunity now. This is the best chance at a takeover now. Pound at Paul for his statements and you will make the race a choice about him representing you and not a choice on Obama.
4. Hodes needs to tie Ayotte to Sarah Palin. I know that she is not on the ballot but if it wasn’t for Palin’s endorsement Ayotte would have lost the primary. If anything it can help ease the energy gap in a state that Obama won by 10 points which may be what is needed to shift the margin just enough.
5. I think that PA is gone now. It sucks as I really like Sestak as a candidate but he is running in the wrong year. I don’t think the attacks on Club for Growth would really stick either. Sestak is running in a reasonably blue state so if he can get those suburban and minority voters out this can be changed but its getting too late for that now.