MA-Gov: Did This Race Get A Lot Closer, Too?

UNH for Boston Globe (9/17-22, likely voters, 6/17-23 in parentheses):

Deval Patrick (D-inc): 35 (38)

Charlie Baker (R): 34 (31)

Tim Cahill (I): 11 (9)

Jill Stein (G): 4 (2)

Undecided: 14 (17)

(MoE: ±4.3%)

Western New England Coll. (9/19-22, likely voters, 4/11-15 in parentheses):

Deval Patrick (D-inc): 39 (34)

Charlie Baker (R): 33 (27)

Tim Cahill (I): 16 (29)

Jill Stein (G): 3 (-)

Undecided: 7 (10)

(MoE: ±5%)

No, seriously, I don’t know if this race got closer or not. UNH (on behalf of the Boston Globe) sees this as a 1-point race, down from a 7-point spread over the summer, seemingly based on movement from Deval Patrick to Charlie Baker, with Tim Cahill mostly stagnant. On the other hand, WNEC sees it as a 6-point race, basically unchanged since the summer, although there’s been a huge leak of Cahill support that seemed to flow equally to Patrick and Baker. The Pollster.com average is 40-35 in favor of Patrick (with Rasmussen seeing a close race, but Suffolk giving a 7-point spread last week), so as always, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle.

36 thoughts on “MA-Gov: Did This Race Get A Lot Closer, Too?”

  1. Come from UNH. But to make a opinion I have to say no the race has not gotten closer. I think the Western New England College poll seems to be on tske to what other pollsters are giving to Patrick, a 5-6 point lead. If any reason why the poll numbers are changing is the implosing of Tim Cahill’s campaign but like you said his support has came from supporters of Deval Patrick and Charlie Baker so that could be a moot point. But no I don’t think the race has gotten closer.

  2. He obviously can’t win. If he drops – the race is, most likely, Baker’s, and i wouldn’t tear my hair in such case – Baker is sane New England Republican, while my opinion on Patrick’s performance in office is far from high. If Cahill stays – Patrick’s chances become slightly better then Baker’s, but even in this case they are not so good that i would bet my money on him.

  3. the RGA’s demolition job on Cahill has to be one of the most impressive ad attacks anywhere in this election cycle – though it didn’t have quite the result they wanted.

  4. There’s nothing but statistical noise in the movements, coupled with extra volatility from the 3-way race.

    Rasmussen’s poll earlier this month had Patrick up 45-42-5 in a 3-way, which frankly I take with great excitement because if he’s still winning even with Cahill tanking that badly, he’s in great shape.

    The one-point margin in the new Globe poll is the outlier, but not by a lot.  Again, lots of volatility in polling a 3-way, it’s a tough race to poll, and the difference between a 7-point lead and a 1-point lead is not so great in this scenario.

    What matters, ALL that matters, is that Patrick continues to lead in ALL polls for a very long time, with no negative momentum building against him.  And as a corollary, his job approvals and favorables are a LOT better in all these polls than all but a couple other Democratic Governors who are up this year.

  5. The only reason I would like to see Patrick lose it to watch the punditocracy freak out.  They love to find stories where there isn’t one and given that a lot of them have described Patrick winning in 2006 as a dry run for Obama ’08, I’m sure many of them just couldn’t pass up using a Patrick loss to suggest doom for Obama in ’12.  Of course the two things are hardly related, but they’d do it anyway – they have to write something, I suppose.

    Well, two reasons, I also have Baker as my pick in Slates Lean/Lock game, but other than that, not really a big thing.  I don’t even think it would make a difference with redistricting as I believe the Dems have a veto proof majority in the legislature.  I don’t actually know, if someone non-partisan was doing it, if you could carve out a couple of GOP house seats in Mass.  Or are they enough of a minority in the state to get a minority-majority district under the voting rights act? 🙂

  6. I think the bottom line is what percentage of the vote Cahill can get. If he’s gets above 15% I think Patrick wins. If Cahill collapses and is well under 10% Baker wins.

  7. The Globe poll is encouraging for Baker, but everything else suggests that Patrick is in the mid-to-high 30’s, Baker is in the low 30’s, and Cahill is in the teens.

    There are two reasons why we could see real movement here in the next couple of weeks, though. One is the potential for Cahill to drop out, which only helps Baker if there’s an endorsement. The other is that Patrick and Baker have both started to go up on the air, which means the number of undecideds will drop. Baker, believe it or not, still isn’t as well known as you’d expect a gubernatorial nominee to be, so he has room to grow–or, Patrick could attack him first and knock his favorables down.

  8. The question for the second choice gives better results for Patrick (D) than for Baker (R):

    Cahill 35%

    Patrick 14%

    Baker 12%

    Stein 12%

    For the voters what take Cahill as first option, the second choice would be:

    Patrick 39%

    Baker 35%

    Stein 8%

  9. MA-ST (State Treasurer)

    Suffolk: Grossman (D) +11%

    UNH: Grossman (D) +10%

    MA-SA (State Auditor)

    Suffolk: Bump (D) +2%

    UNH: Bump (D) +4%

    Still without numbers about MA-10

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