Abt SRBI, Inc for the Washington Post (9/22-26, likely voters, 5/3-6 in parens):
Martin O’Malley (D-inc): 52 (47)
Bob Ehrlich (R): 41 (47)
(MoE: ±4%)
Nice movement for Martin O’Malley here. Bob Ehrlich’s problem? Although he’s winning independents, his message is failing to sway enough Democrats to his campaign:
Instead, despite widespread concern among Marylanders about the economy and direction of the state, Democrats have moved solidly behind O’Malley. And he is more popular now than at any time a Post poll has been taken since 2004.
In recent months, O’Malley has moved to invigorate his party’s base by adopting a campaign theme that asks voters to reject a return to Republican control. Four out of five Maryland Democrats say they are enthusiastic about voting for him, according to the poll. O’Malley has also emerged as the candidate more trusted by voters on the top issue in the race: Maryland’s economy. […]
In 2002, Ehrlich was lifted over his Democratic opponent, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, in large part by scoring 22 percent among Democrats, according to a Washington Post exit poll that year. Ehrlich, in his losing reelection bid four years later, mustered 15 percent of the Democratic vote. Now, only 10 percent of self-identified Democrats say they back Ehrlich in the re-match.
Among registered voters, O’Malley’s lead is 49-35, and his job approval rating sits at 57-33. In a year where incumbent Dem Governors have been getting shellacked in the polls, the O’Malley camp has got to be pleased with these numbers.
only a Democrat who runs a bad campaign will lose.
Is REALLY up now. It probably doesn’t help to huff and puff as “Mr. GOP” on national TV while trying to convince Marylanders otherwise.
a democratic state where democrats are coming back home
Very good. I’m friends with Kumar Barve, the Maryland House Majority Leader, and months ago he told me O’Malley would win, he was confident of the ultimate outcome, even though the polls were tight.
I figured the same myself, but couldn’t help but feel nervous.
WaPo is the gold standard for Maryland/D.C./Virginia polling, they’re simply the best here.
I feel very good today.
Ehrlich’s signs and stickers are freakin’ everywhere in the Baltimore area, even in the city but especially in the suburbs. “Another Democrat for Ehrlich” signs in this neighborhood are very common. Every business in this state seems to have a gigantic Ehrlich sign.
I know, I know…yard signs don’t vote. But it was close last time, and in this neighborhood O’Malley at least had something near to parity in terms of visible support.
I don’t get the feeling O’Malley is that popular around here either talking to people, though there’s very little people can point to other than “the economy sucks” and “the sales tax got raised to 6%.” But it’s not as if the economy wouldn’t still suck if Ehrlich were in office. And of course Ehrlich has pledged to roll back the sales tax and introduce a bunch of business tax cuts, but has steadfastly refused to say what he’d do about all the resultant lost revenue…OK, I’ll move away from substantive policy…
Big chunks of the base are disspirited. State workers are pissed about all the furloughs (of course, Ehrlich’s people are going to just going to send them to the unemployment line, but never mind that) and are venting. There’s a fairly sizable gap between what people thought Obama promised and what they think he is delivering, and another share of the electorate that sadly thinks, Dems are in control, they did their job and are now moving on – and all that is spilling over into state politics. The Dems have a hammer lock on the legislature, so the incentive to be complacent is strong.
But this poll is still encouraging. I have not spent much time in MoCo or PG lately and it could be that there’s so many people in the DC suburbs who no way, no how, aren’t pulling the lever for the GOP no matter what, that Ehrlich still can’t win.
Keep on pointing out how extreme and unacceptable Republicans candidates across the country are.