Minnesota Public Radio/Hubert Humphrey Institute (9/22-26, likely voters, 8/25-29 in parentheses):
Mark Dayton (D): 38 (34)
Tom Emmer (R): 27 (34)
Tom Horner (I): 16 (13)
Undecided: 20 (19)
(MoE: ±5.1%)
The Minnesota gubernatorial race seemed to take a dangerous dip a few weeks ago, with very close polls from MPR, SurveyUSA, and Rasmussen. The last few days, though, have seen a 9-point Mark Dayton lead in a Star Tribune poll and now an even bigger lead in a reprise from MPR.
I’m not sure what caused that momentary swoon (and its seemingly abrupt end), but I can diagnose what Tom Emmer’s problem is: Independence Party candidate Tom Horner, who seems to give moderate GOPers an escape hatch from the Palin-backed knuckle-dragger Emmer. 22% of Republicans are opting for Horner, while only 10% of Democrats are.
but Tom Horner is running a solid campaign. I wouldn’t vote for him, but I also wouldn’t be scared shitless for the future of the state if he won.
Basic competency can be a pretty strong selling point, especially when both of your opponents come off as a little fringy.