SSP Updates 26 Race Ratings

Last week, when we made a large round of changes to our Senate, Gubernatorial, and House ratings, we promised a second round after we’d ironed out some disagreements, and here it is. There are also some additions, though, that are based on late-breaking polling information, so again it’s a pretty big list.

  • AK-Sen: Safe R to Tossup *
  • FL-Sen: Tossup to Lean R
  • IA-Sen: Likely R to Safe R
  • NC-Sen: Lean R to Likely R
  • NH-Sen: Tossup to Lean R
  • NY-Sen-B: Safe D to Likely D
  • WV-Sen: Lean D to Tossup

  • NY-Gov: Safe D to Likely D

  • CA-20: Safe D to Likely D
  • FL-22: Lean D to Tossup
  • FL-25: Lean R to Tossup
  • GA-02: Likely D to Lean D
  • IA-02: Safe D to Lean D
  • IN-08: Tossup to Lean R
  • MI-01: Tossup to Lean R
  • NC-07: Likely D to Lean D
  • NJ-06: Safe D to Likely D
  • NM-03: Safe D to Likely D
  • NY-13: Likely D to Lean D
  • OH-09: Safe D to Likely D
  • OH-13: Lean D to Tossup
  • PA-10: Lean D to Tossup
  • TN-08: Tossup to Lean R
  • TX-23: Lean D to Tossup
  • WI-07: Tossup to Lean R
  • WI-08: Lean D to Tossup

25 of these changes favor Republicans; 1 race (the open seat in FL-25) has moved in the Democratic direction.

You might be wondering about the asterisk in Alaska, which even though it just shot up to “Tossup,” we aren’t really considering a move in the Dems’ direction. That’s just to remind everyone that “Tossup” doesn’t necessarily reflect the Dem candidate’s odds in this race; right now, the “Tossup” is more between Joe Miller and Lisa Murkowski, with Scott McAdams the wild card.

69 thoughts on “SSP Updates 26 Race Ratings”

  1. It feels like, no matter how crazy Republicans get, we can’t even slow down their momentum in all these races, much less turn it around. It just keeps getting worse

  2. I can’t disagree with a single one of those calls.  The only one I even thought about was MI-01 which I was still thinking of as a tossup, but looking into it a bit more, I agree with your choice to put it as Lean R.

  3. I am still officially on record as disagreeing with this being anything other than a Tossup until I see some darn good polling. It’s a swingy suburban seat that Obama won and is moving rapidly in our direction.

    Plus, campaign-wise, our candidate has proven surprisingly good (Stephene Moore, who can attack her opponent on camera and still come off seeming like a really nice lady) and theirs surprisingly bad (Kevin Yoder, he of the fake family with the fake dog and the otherwise-milquetoast commercials).

  4. Pallone has $4 million in the bank, his opponent is a teabagger with no money, and it’s a D+8 district.

  5. How many posters expect the Dems to retain control of the House? Senate?

    Having seen this from the other side in 06 and 08, the writing was pretty much on the wall at this point.  Barring a true surprise, the course seems to be set for 2010 (and the electoral implications are similar).  On election day, Obama’s approval will be upside-down, voters will have a negative assessment of the economy, and the Dems’ key initiatives–the stimulus and the health bill–will be seen as expensive failures.

    It is interesting to read so many of the same things:  some perceived momentum in a hopeless race, expecting all sorts of crap that doesn’t matter (the pledge, bill jefferson, purported backlash against tea parties/code pink/john kerry’s “stuck in iraq” comments) to be some sort of game changer, some seesawing in the generic ballot to be the beginning of a genuine comeback.    

  6. do respect I do not see how you see Alaska as a tossup. I know this is the SSP special race but McAdams is not at all close in any of the polls and I do not see how he wins. I honestly think this is a lean R race. I hope I’m wrong though.  

  7. Exactly what do these guys need to do for them to be considered Leans D?

    They’ve both had important conservative endorsements, great polling. Not to mention, their opponents are not exactly that great.

  8. He’s a goner. I talked to Todd Young’s general counsel today, and internal polling shows Baron trailing by a few points and with dismal reelect numbers (mid-30s).

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