SSP Daily Digest: 9/30 (Afternoon Edition)

CA-Sen: PPIC (9/19-26, likely voters, 7/6-20 in parentheses):

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 42 (49)

Carly Fiorina (R): 35 (40)

Other: 6 (-)

Undecided: 17 (11)

(MoE: ±3.6%)

One more poll for the pile with a high-single-digits lead for Barbara Boxer, this time from the very trustworthy PPIC. They also look at the Governor’s race (see below) and a few initiatives: they find Prop 19 (pot) passing 52-41 and Prop 25 (simple majority budget) passing 48-35, but also finding Prop 23 (suspending greenhouse gas limits) passing 43-42.

IN-Sen: We’d speculated that this was a possibility back around the time of the Indiana GOP primary, when Dan Coats (an unusually tepid gun supporter as far as GOPers go) won. The NRA today endorsed his Democratic opponent, Brad Ellsworth, who’s pretty much walked the pro-gun line in his red House district. (I know we’d said we’d shut up about NRA endorsements of conservaDems, but this one actually has the potential to move some votes in a key race.)

PA-Sen: Susquehanna for Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (9/23-26, likely voters, no trendlines):

Joe Sestak (D): 42

Pat Toomey (R): 45

(MoE: ±3.5%)

I wish this had come out in time for our monstrous Pennsylvania wrapup from early this morning, as it’s an interesting post-script. Susquehanna (a Republican pollster, but one who’ve demonstrated that they know what they’re doing in Pennsylvania; for instance, they got the PA-12 special pretty close to right) sees it as a surprisingly close race, finding Sestak within 3. Is this the first sign of Sestak closing, or is this just the optimistic edge of the stable mid-single-digits band that the race has usually been pegged at?

CA-Gov: PPIC (9/19-26, likely voters, 7/6-20 in parentheses):

Jerry Brown (D): 37 (46)

Meg Whitman (R): 38 (40)

Other: 7 (-)

Undecided: 18 (14)

(MoE: ±3.6%)

Unfortunately, this poll closes out the end of a run of remarkable luck for Jerry Brown of polls showing him spiking into the lead (although there’s a lot of movement from both candidates to “Other,” though I’m not sure who that would be). Importantly, though, the polling period ended before Meg Whitman’s illegal housekeeper problem burst into public view. The SEIU is doing its part to keep the issue front and center, pumping $5 million into a Latino outreach effort that’s largely field efforts but also includes an ad starting in a few days hitting Whitman on the housekeeper issue. Whitman’s also doing her part to keep it in the news, saying she’ll employ the scoundrel’s last refuge — a polygraph test — to prove she was unaware.

NY-Gov: Marist (9/27-29, likely voters, 9/14-19 in parentheses):

Andrew Cuomo (D): 53 (52)

Carl Paladino (R): 38 (33)

Rick Lazio (C): – (9)

Undecided: 8 (6)

(MoE: ±4%)

Marist strikes back quickly with another poll following up on the news that Rick Lazio is no longer a candidate, preferring to enjoy the great prestige that comes with a trial court judgeship in the Bronx. At any rate, they don’t see anything changing other than what you’d expect: most of Lazio’s voters from the Conservative line gravitated over to GOP nominee Carl Paladino, with a few, unappetized by the bombastic Paladino, joining the ranks of the undecided.

OR-Gov: One major explanation for how Chris Dudley has made a major race out of what looked like an easy Dem pickup hold a year ago is… money. (As with so many other races this year…) Dudley has raised $5.6 million all cycle long, as of Tuesday’s reporting deadline, more than doubling up on John Kitzhaber’s $2.6 million, the largest disparity between the two parties ever seen in an Oregon gubernatorial race. (The SEIU has been running ads on Kitzhaber’s behalf, and the DGA has $750K ready to go, but that’s still a big deficit.)

RI-Gov: Fleming & Associates for WPRI-TV (9/22-26, likely voters, no trendlines):

Frank Caprio (D): 33

John Robitaille (R): 19

Lincoln Chafee (I): 30

Undecided: 15

(MoE: ±4.4%)

There’s been a general trend in the last month or two toward the Democrat, Frank Caprio, in this race. But the newest poll (apparently the first of this race from Fleming & Associates), on behalf of local TV stations, shows a much closer race, with Caprio up only 3 on his indie opponent, Lincoln Chafee.

GA-08: American Viewpoint for Austin Scott (9/26-27, likely voters, late July in parentheses):

Jim Marshall (D-inc): 38 (44)

Austin Scott (R): 46 (39)

Undecided: 13 (14)

(MoE: ±5.7%)

Well, there’s only one alarming GOP House internal poll today, unlike yesterday’s onslaught. (Also, note the hypertrophied margin of error, based on an n of 300.) Still, this is another race that’s tended to be on the “Lean D” or at least “Tilt D” side of the equation, and one more juggling ball that the DCCC is going to have to keep in the air.

ME-01, ME-02: Critical Insights, like last time, included both Maine House districts as part of their poll, so we actually have some trendlines now. In the 1st, Chellie Pingree is expanding her lead over Dean Scontras, 54-26. However, in the 2nd, Mike Michaud’s lead over Jason Levesque is a little smaller, down to 44-32 (from 48-28). (In a way, that’s reassuring, because that’s evidence that Critical Insights didn’t just stumble into a much Dem-friendlier batch, and that the flight from Paul LePage seems real.)

DSCC: The DSCC is having to put some money into Connecticut, a race they probably thought they could avoid spending on when Richard Blumenthal got into the race. They’re starting with a smallish $250K, though. Other DSCC outlays today include $720K in CO-Sen, $464K in IL-Sen, $362K in MO-Sen, and $386K in WV-Sen.

NARAL: NARAL rolled out endorsements of twenty different Dems running in House races, almost all of whom received $5K each. You can click for the full list, but it includes Cedric Richmond, Steve Pougnet, John Hulburd, and Joe Garcia on offense (the rest are defensive picks).


AK-Sen: Lisa Murkowski’s out with two different ads, one hitting Joe Miller as outsider, the other a PSA-type ad that verrrry slowly and carefully explains to people how to vote for her

KY-Sen: Here’s a powerful new ad from Jack Conway hitting Rand Paul on the drug issue yet again, complete with tombstone and tagline “He doesn’t know us” (interestingly, though, the DSCC is following the NRSC’s lead here with an ad buy cancellation for the week of the 5th) (UPDATE: Looks like the DS un-cancelled)

MO-Sen: Roy Blunt hits Robin Carnahan over the stimulus, pointing out that another member of the extended Carnahan clan got money for his wind farm

WI-Sen: Russ Feingold tries going back to firing up the base, running an ad based on the merits of health care reform

MI-01: The NRCC weighs in with an ad in the 1st, an endless circle of meta wherein Dan Benishek attacks Gary McDowell for attacking

WI-07: Julie Lassa goes back to the theme of Sean Duffy having prematurely abandoned his day job as DA to run for the House

AJS: Americans for Job Security tries again in VA-09 (remember that’s where their previous ad got bounced for being too egregious), as well as in CO-03 and NY-24


CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 43%, Ken Buck (R) 51%

FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek (D) 21%, Marco Rubio (R) 41%, Charlie Crist (I) 30%

IA-Sen: Roxanne Conlin (D) 37%, Charles Grassley (R-inc) 55%

KY-Sen: Jack Conway (D) 38%, Rand Paul (R) 49%

MA-Gov: Deval Patrick (D-inc) 47%, Charlie Baker (R) 42%, Tim Cahill (I) 6%

NV-Gov: Rory Reid (D) 40%, Brian Sandoval (R) 53%

NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 48%, Sharron Angle (R) 47%

OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 42%, John Kasich (R) 50%

WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 47%, Dino Rossi (R) 48%

WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 42%, Ron Johnson 54%

177 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 9/30 (Afternoon Edition)”

  1. the DSCC has to pour money in Connecticut shows that Blumenthal is thinking he’s running for the city council. Wonder if the NRSC will follow suit, just to force the DSCC to pour more money into Connecticut.  

  2. She bragged about an Assembly Bill she sponsored to repeal ALL coverage mandates.

    Yesterday, she told right-wing radio host Heidi Harris that: parents of autistic children would be “better off” with simple insurance policies that didn’t cover medical care related to autism spectrum disorders.

    (Seriously, doesn’t she know that radio broadcasts can be recorded?)

  3. Spare me. The lady lied and Gloria Allred’s still frightening.

    I dunno, though, about the lie detector thing. That’s an equally frightening offer from the Whitman camp.

    This whole thing is weird with a capital “R” for Republican.

  4. A fast-passed ad hitting Rivera for his penchant for crashing into trucks to stop a political opponent from delivering mailers.

    Not bad at all.  I find the tag line “An accident waiting to happen.” to be clever.

  5. For months I thought Chafee would get this one. Not anymore. What kind of GOTV and ground support does an independent have? None. it must be all setup from scratch. It certainly can be done, but it costs resources.

    Caprio has it all pre-existing already from the party, and only has had to update and refine it.

    Undecided are still pretty high though in this poll.

  6. My state’s Senate race just keeps getting weirder and weirder.

    One GOP source says an agent of Ashjian wanted to talk about him getting out of race, but Ashjian insists his first contact was w/Mitchell.

    1 minute ago via TweetDeck

    Angle campaign yet to comment, but have confirmed Mitchell’s involvement. Going to play her voicemails on F2F and put on blog…(MORE)

    2 minutes ago via TweetDeck

    This gets better: Mitchell left a couple of unfortunate voice mails about Ashjian I’ve obtained. Will post soon. Much more to come. #tease

    about 1 hour ago via TweetDeck

    Ashjian says this week that Angle operatives, including DC lawyer Cleta Mitchell, have tried to get him out of race. He will not go. (MORE)

    about 1 hour ago via TweetDeck

    If you thought #nvsen was the best and goofiest, it’s about to get better. Angle met last night w/Tea Party of NV hopeful Ashjian. (MORE)

    about 1 hour ago via TweetDeck


  7. I just made my FIRST political donations ever (at the age of 25)

    $20 Jack Conway

    $20 Patrick Murphy

    $15 Tom Periello

    $10 Harry Teague

    All have shots at winning and are conservative, progressives; Meaning they like the progressive agenda, they just don’t want to flip the switch over night. Also, all of them (but Conway for some reason) have the League of Conservation Voters endorsement, the endorsement that matters most to me.

  8. for legislative election results?  other than SOS pages or newspapers, neither of one works well.

  9. …in their polling of CT at the moment.  They think that the Q poll was a false alarm.

    Also saying that Lieberman is the most unpopular senator in the country.

  10. or is Russ Feingold in the worst shape of any incumbent not named Blanche Lincoln. I really think he may be not pull this out.

    TX-13, Dem, Male, 21

  11. Is it a coincidence that they polled it right before adding him to the Young Guns? I wonder if their polling showed the same thing as his internal?

  12. How the hell is Mary Bono Mack considered a moderate if she doesn’t actually have any moderate positions?

    I just kinda assumed she was pro-choice, but NARAL backing her opponent would have to mean she’s anti-choice, right? Anyone know? Her Wikipedia page was long ago purged of any of her actual positions on almost any issue.

  13. $30K media buy in Denver, Colorado Springs, and Grand Junction.  Ok quality and message, obviously low-budget.

    Um, where’s the legal “paid for and authorized by” legal stamp?

    Hickenlooper is out with a new ad, too.  Once again, it’s something creative.

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