CO-Sen, CO-Gov: Bennet in Trouble, Hickenlooper in Command

Marist (PDF) for McClatchy Newspapers (9/26-28, likely voters, no trendlines):

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 42

Ken Buck (R): 50

Undecided: 6

John Hickenlooper (D): 48

Dan Maes (R): 19

Tom Tancredo (ACP): 29

Undecided: 4

(MoE: ±4.5%)

These McClatchy polls are part of a package which generally show sucky numbers for Dems. (We’ll bring you the PA & WI portions separately.) The enthusiasm gap is palpable. Among registered voters, Bennet noses Buck, 41-40. The same pattern holds true in the gubernatorial race, which is a 48-15-25 contest among RVs. That is to say, Republicans do about ten points better among LVs.

We’re breaking Colorado out from the rest of the McClatchy pile because another pollster also has fresh nums from the Rockies.

SurveyUSA (CO-Sen, CO-Gov) for the Denver Post/9News (9/28-30, likely voters, 7/27-29 (RVs) in parens):

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 43 (43)

Ken Buck (R): 48 (43)

Undecided: 1 (7)

John Hickenlooper (D): 46 (46)

Dan Maes (R): 15 (24)

Tom Tancredo (ACP): 34 (24)

Undecided: 2 (7)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

More sucky numbers for Bennet. Since we only have Denver Post links, we don’t have access to the full cross-tabs yet. But the Post indicates that SUSA is still SUSA, noting: “Voters younger than 50 strongly prefer Buck, at 52 percent to 38 percent, while over-50 voters have a slight preference for Bennet.”

SurveyUSA also shows that Tom Tancredo’s strategy of trying to marginalize Dan Maes as unelectable may be paying dividends. The problem for the Tanc, though, is that it’s pretty darn hard to drive a guy down past Alan Gold Schlesinger levels if he’s got a major party label next to his name and says he won’t drop out. Maes has been… well, I guess you could call it tenacious if you were feeling just-won-the-lottery generous and doesn’t look like a guy read to call it quits. (He even allegedly has a TV ad. Then again, supposedly Stacey Tallitsch did, too.)

There’s still time for Maes to bail, though, and if Tancredo absorbed the vast majority of those votes, Hickenlooper would have a serious race on his hands. An irony, then: Michael Bennet probably wishes he had more time, but for Hick, November can’t come soon enough.

P.S. Tom Jensen teases: “We polled CO Gov, CO Sen, CT Sen, CT Gov, Both NY-Sen, and NY-Gov this weekend. Only 1 of them in single digits.”

60 thoughts on “CO-Sen, CO-Gov: Bennet in Trouble, Hickenlooper in Command”

  1. Before even considering giving up on CO-Sen… Which, btw, is probably the race they found within single digits.

  2. I do think Hickenlooper will perform under 50, but unless the hardcore rank-and-file GOP holds its nose and bolts for Tancredo, I imagine Maes’ presence will hold Tancredo back. For what it’s worth, I have this pegged at…

    Independent – 36%

    GOP – 34%

    Democrat – 30%

    Hickenlooper – 47/7/90 = 46%

    Maes – 13/27/3 = 15%

    Tancredo – 40/66/7 = 39%

    Now, just for interest’s sake, let’s imagine Maes were off the ballot…

    Hickenlooper – 53/13/93 = 51%

    Tancredo – 47/87/7 = 49%

    Now, this would be a fascinating race, but really, in the end, Tancredo’s probably too loopy to win in even the most GOP-friendly cycle. It’s like Dennis Kuninich running for Ohio U.S. Senate in a Dem-friendly cycle.

  3. Obama should have never appointed Ken Salazar to Interior… we would not be in this situation had he been the Dem nominee in CO-Sen.

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