Public Policy Polling for the Daily Kos (10/2-3, likely voters, no trend lines):
Cedric Richmond (D): 49
Joe Cao (R-inc): 38
Undecied: 13
(MoE: ±4%)
Joe Cao wins 22% of Democrats, 21% of Obama voters, wins independents 52-30, wins whites by 65-24, and has a 50-29 favorable rating. In a less Democratic district, that might be enough to survive this year, but this truly looks like a fridge too far for any Republican.
Bonus finding: Charlie Melancon leads David Vitter by 65-28 in the Senate race portion of the poll.
In here Cao is getting 15% of liberals and Vitter is getting 11. Why would anybody who goes so far as to call himself a liberal in Louisiana consider voting for Vitter, much less 11%? Only really dedicated people who strongly believe in their Ideology call themselves liberal especially in such a red state.
And Obama just cut an ad for Richmond to take away any Obama voter Cao support.
His minimum needed among whites is 70%, but he really needs to be higher than that to have a prayer. He is at 64%. This poll does show how much African American turnout drops off in midterms though. African Americans make up only 51% of this sample, with 41% white.
There was too much of it to fit in his ice tray.
Cao’s best bet ironically was for the Democratic majority to be safe. THEN a lot more Democrats might feel “safe” voting for him, that there was no urgency in returning the seat to Democratic hands. But with the majority in jeopardy, Democrats are circling the wagons, and Cao is on the outside looking in.
Even in that scenario Cao probably would be a goner, but at least there would be an argument that Democrats don’t need the seat.
I understand that Richmond has some ethics issues as well.
I’m kind of surprised Cao hasnt made this more of an issue.
I believe Richmond has his law license revoked for campaign voter residency fraud, has a few assault charges leveled against him and was involved with a shady charity.
Cao needs to win independence by a bigger than 52 to 30 margin to off set Dem registration advantage. Only way to do that would be to drive up Richmond’s negatives by painting him as scandal plagued.
If Richmond can hold Cao to only 22% of Dems and win 30% of independents I think he can win.
Thank goodness the Dems are going to be able to pick up a few seats to offset the pending loses. Any recent polls on PA-06 and IL-10?