Campaign and Election News – Covering Key Races Around the Country
Weekly Open Thread 2.0
523 thoughts on “Weekly Open Thread 2.0”
I’ve heard that he wants the senate seat as a springboard to national office, but i don’t see the appeal.
Basically he seems like Mark Warner, except from a smaller state that’s moving away from the dems instead of towards them and he looks poised to cost them a senate seat (in every, election ordering sense of the word) instead of giving them a seat as warner did.
For primary voters who’d want to vote for an Appalachian moderate candidate, wouldn’t Warner just be better?
I know, I know. We’re not supposed to reach toward 2012 quite yet. But, it’s still a fascinating result.
I’ve been trying to list the House seats that I think Republicans are going to pick up, in order to see if they are going to take over the House. It’s probably time to update that. Here’s my logic.
The current make-up of the House is 255 Dems; 178 Repubs; and 2 vacancies.
The 2 vacancies are going to be Repub after the election, so let’s just say 255 Dems and 180 Repubs.
By those numbers, Repubs would have to pick up 38 current Dem seats, but Dems are going to pick up at least 3 current Repub seats (LA-2, DE-AL and HI-1). So Repubs are going to need to pick up 41 current Dem seats.
Now, I just try to list the seats that are going to flip from Dem to Repub and see if I get to 41. These are ones that I am fairly certain of…
1. AR-1
2. AR-2
3. CO-4
4. FL-24
5. IL-11
6. IN-8
7. KS-3
8. LA-3
9. MI-1
10. NH-1
11. OH-1
12. OH-15
13. PA-3
14. PA-11
15. TN-6
16. TN-8
17. TX-17
18. VA-2
19. VA-5
20. WA-3
21. WI-7
22. WI-8
23. PA-7
24. OH-16
25. MI-7
26. IN-9
27. FL-8
28. AL-2
29. CO-3
There’s an entire list of others which fall into lesser classes of “I have doubts about it happening, but it probably will”; “Complete tossups/I have no idea”; and “I don’t care what pundits say, these aren’t going Republican”.
But do you guys think the list of 29 above is accurate? Any objections about any of them?
Conflicting internals in MS-4. Taylor claims he’s ahead by 8. Palazzo claims he’s ahead by 4. Split the difference, and you have Taylor ahead by 2 in this confederate district that seems poised to go Republican.
but what do you guys think are the plans for GOPVoter, Zornoph, and MassGOP.
feel free to include conspiracy theories.
my takes
realistic: setting up official guidelines for GOP users to not get banned
unrealistic: GOPVoter moved to New York, is an illegal immigrant, and needs a new ID or Carl Paladino will keep him in an internment camp.
Due to time zones the first polls will close here at 7 AM, Wednesday November 3. I was afraid that due to class I would miss most of election night. But it turns out I don’t have class on November 3! So I can not only watch the election results, but keep watching after most people go to bed. I am one happy nerd right now.
here’s where my ballot’s lining up right now here in California. (Feel free to rake me over the coals):
Gov: Jerry Brown (Brown’s been there and done that while Whitman is another inexperience novice that legislators in both parties will eat up easily. The last thing we need is Schwarzenegger 2.0 with a huge pocket book…unless bribing legislatures was made legal recently.)
Senate: Barbara Boxer (A good progressive foot soldier, plus Fiorina helped outsource good pay jobs + being canned from HP. NRSC struck fools gold here.)
Lt. Gov: Abel Maldonado (State senator who had the courage to cast his vote for the 2009-2010 budget, even though it earned him ridicule from both sides over the top two primary prop, and tax hikes. Plus he’s a moderate who’s seen the light on AB 32, he voted against it in the state senate, but says suspending AB 32 now would be foolhardy because it would kill nascent Green Jobs industry here in California. And I’ve never liked Newsom, he’s been all about making national headlines in my opinion. Respect him for his record on gay rights, but that “Whether you like it or not!” quote didn’t help in the advancement of Gay rights in this country.)
Attorney General: Steve Cooley (Tough on crime DA. And I don’t like Harris for reasons already mentioned.)
Controller: John Chiang
Treasurer: Bill Lockyer
Insurance Commissioner: Dave Jones
Props:
Prop 19: Undecided. (I’ve seen the use of drugs blaze a destructive path through my family. Especially my dad. At the same time many people I know smoke weed..so I truly don’t know if I should vote yes or no. Never thought I would agree with the Howard Jarvis taxpayer’s association with anything.)
Prop 20: No. (We need all the Democrats we can squeeze out of California.)
Prop 21: Yes
Prop 22: Yes (Both sides have good legitimate arguments. On one hand this will protect transportation and local treasuries from Sacramento raids, but at the other hand this means cutting off another revenue source for the state budget. But I’m voting yes, I don’t think its healthy for Sacramento to raid the transit system and county’s treasuries over and over. Plus this isn’t one of these unfunded mandate propositions, its just baring the state from doing something the voters have told them not to.)
Prop 23: FUCK NO (Say no to Texas Oil companies, Global Warming deniers, and the Koch brothers.)
Prop 24: Yes
Prop 25: Yes (A budget 100 days late adding $5 billion more to the state deficit…the 2/3rds budget requirement…bringing US Senate dysfunction to California.)
Prop 26: No (Not more of this 2/3rd’s nonsense.)
Prop 27: No (Thanks to insane gerrymandering, California has one of the most dysfunctional legislatures in the country. If it wasn’t for term limits, we’d probably leapfrog NY in the most hated legislature in the country.)
Anyone got a favorite political song?
Ben Folds just released his new CD and this one has just zoomed to the top of my list:
Hello folks, first post here. Sure have enjoyed SSP since I came across it over the summer. What with all the up and down political news over the last few months it’s great to find a site that gives me the info I want and makes me crack up all at the same time. Anyhoo, moved to AZ 3 years ago, which at the time was a blue trending state with a reasonably left of center gov, Janet Napolitano. Well Obama was elected, he took Napolitano for Homeland Security, Jan Brewer took over, and the rest is history.
Polls show freshman U.S. rep for AZ-01 Anne Kirkpatrick even or down slightly to “rogue dentist” (as SSP calls him) Paul Gosar. There seems to be some ambivalence on how endangered the seat is (didn’t make the top 30 list above, but one commenter suggested adding it)
The wild card in this district it seems, which includes most of the northern part of the state (large swaths of high desert, including fairly blue Flagstaff, home to Northern Arizona University), is the considerable amount of Native Americans in the area. I’ve heard it suggested that Kirkpatrick has the election in the bag because Nov 3rd coincides with the election for President of the Navajo nation, one of the largest native communities in the country. Between the traditional lean to Democrats among NAs and Kirkpatrick’s working the reservation communities fairly well, this is supposed to ensure her a big pro-Kirkpatrick turnout there.
There are however a couple of areas of concern, although I’m not sure how big they are:
1) One of the biggest ongoing local controversies in n. AZ involves the push by ski area Arizona Snowbowl (yes, we have skiing in Arizona . . . Flagstaff got more inches snow than Syracuse NY last winter, which is saying a lot) to use reclaimed wastewater for snowmaking. Kirkpatrick has come out in favor of the plan, which the Navajo and many other tribes in the area consider a desecration of the sacred San Francisco peaks where the ski area is located. Whether this will suppress support or create a down ballot under count is not certain.
2) Flagstaff has some anti-incumbent fervor of its own this spring with mayor Sara Pressler winning re-election by only about 100 votes or so. She had been challenged from the left and the right during the primary, and when the run-off left her facing off against too right for Flagstaff Joe Haughey, she barely hung on. Whether that is evidence of an enthusiasm gap in usually quite lefty friendly Flagstaff (after all a large university town) is also not certain, but there might be something there. Certainly Kirkpatrick’s Blue Dog positions (she recently came out in favor of extending all the Bush tax cuts) won’t get the university tye dye base fired up.
3) Finally, the two front runners to lead the Navajo nation, Ben Shelly and Linda Lovejoy (who would be first woman Navajo president) are from the New Mexico side of the Navajo boundary. Again, no evidence neccesarily that turnout will be less in AZ as a result, but that’s another minor detail that seems less than ideal.
OK, lots of minutia on a district that is a little under the radar, but hopefully something that readers at this site will find interesting.
looking at pollster.com and both candidates seem to be having a synchronized swan dive. There’s still runoffs there right? Would it be better to go to a runoff, or does Barnes have to win on election day to win? I know in 2008 jim Martin had to win on election day, because afterward the obama electorate wouldn’t show up, but that’s probably not the same in 2010. Both electorates will probably be conservative, but will the run-offs be worse?
… I am convinced that partisan control of the House will be decided by the outcome of these races.
NH-2
SD-AL
FL-2
GA-8
WV-1
NV-3
NY-23
NY-24
AZ-5
NM-2
PA-10
TX-23
These are the most important races I am going to be watching on election night. I’ll have to find out the poll closing times in each one, so I can observe as the hours go by.
These will make the difference between whether the Republicans are going to have a net gain of closer to 30 seats my hope) or closer to 45 seats (where people like Cook and Sabato say things will end up).
Now can ya’ll see why me and andyroo love to watch Fiorina talk?
Mostly complete (enough to pass the 3 paragraph rule here), details the state of the major races here in California. If your tired of reading gloomy posts, mine should raise your spirits (if your a California resident that is :P).
Wondering if McAdams momentum shows in the polls. He seems to be a good campaigner and took in a lot of cash. Anyone know any news from there?
The federal government announced it will be freezing Social Security benefits in 2011, instead of increasing them slightly to adjust for the increasing cost of living as they normally do. Let’s see if Republicans try to work the senior vote with this, although I hate it when either party twists stories like this to scare gullible old ladies into voting for them.
I’ve been saying this for months and with each day, a half dozen new polls show up indicating Democrats that were completely off of anybody’s vulnerability radar screen are either behind, tied, or leading something like 45-42. Much as we dismiss some of them as bad polls, I highly doubt they’re all wrong. So my question is this….how many more Democrats will we discover are poised to lose or barely eke out a win in the next couple of weeks?
There are a few Democratic incumbents who I think will survive only because of battleground Senate races in their state are likely to bring out more Democrats than will be the case nationwide. This will probably help John Yarmuth and Shelley Berkeley keep their jobs, even though I doubt either would if their wasn’t a crazy Republican at the top of their state’s ticket bringing out Democrats to the polls.
But with the addition of names like Barney Frank, Jim Oberstar, and John Dingell to the endangered list, it tells me we’re gonna be shocked at plenty other casualties who haven’t even polled yet. My guesses for the two under-the-radar Democrats most likely to lose….Dennis Kucinich and Anthony Weiner.
I would have never expected Betty Sutton to be vulnerable in OH-13 a couple of months ago, but knowing that she is, would it be beyond the realm for the always-underperforming Kucinich to be felled in his demographically similar district next door? A Republican held this seat from 1993-1996 because of a scandal, and lo and behold, Cuyahoga County Democratic scandals have re-emerged to muddy things up there again this year. Given the voters’ long-standing frustration with Kucinich’s quirks, he seems like a prime candidate for surprise defeat this year.
Then you have Anthony Weiner, whose district has moved sharply to Republicans in the last decade, with Obama defeating McCain by a mere 10 points. Will Weiner be penalized for his rising national profile and time spent on cable news shows? Will he be penalized for his advocacy of a health care bill that probably isn’t popular in his district? Will his Italian-heavy district turn out to support Palladino and Dio Guardi in large enough numbers to boost overall Republican performance to a level that washes Weiner away? Given the anecdotal evidence we’ve seen in the past year in vaguely similar suburban New York elections, I’d say the chances of Weiner being defeated are far higher than anyone believes.
I’m sure there are Democrats who I’m not even anticipating that are stealthly being groomed for defeat this year. The battleground is probably 50 seats larger than anyone believes, and that’s why I think the Republicans will gain a bare minimum of 80 seats…and probably closer to 100.
like susan collins two terms in maine, or almost every other politician who promised term limits. it’s free media at least, i guess.
I have seen decent DCCC ads now in both the MS-1 and AR-1 races in the Memphis market. The AR-1 is a tad more clever in portraying Crawford (R) support of semi-SS privatization as a scheme to turn SS into a “welfare program” for the worst off while leaving everyone else to fend for themselves. “Welfare” is repeated several times in the ad for good measure.
The MS-1 ad just re-hits Nunnelee (R) on raising taxes in the State Senate and supporting the “fair tax”, it’s a rather corny cartoonish ad in execution, but effective enough in delivering the message.
No DCCC ads in TN-8. TONS, and I mean TONS, of 3rd party ads against Herron (D) though. Makes me wonder why 3rd party spenders are wasting big money here if the DCCC isn’t finding reason to spend yet. On the ground the perception is Herron is making up ground with his campaign appearing to have some life and late momentum, but whether he can close the gap to actually win is not remotely clear with the lack of public polling and/or recent leaks. This race now appears like it will at least not be blowout, but that’s little solace if Herron loses on election night.
It’s an internet poll of registered voters, so it’s probably not worth the (electronic) paper it’s printed on. But here are the numbers:
A new EPIC-MRA poll just came out showing Snyder under 50% for first time in a while. He does, however, still have a 20% lead (down from a 24% lead in the last poll).
This latest EPIC MRA poll released exclusively to WXYZ-TV and the Detroit Free Press has Snyder ahead of Bernero by 20 points, 49 to 29 percent, with 18 percent undecided. In September, Republican Snyder led by 24 points.
Debuted during the Saints game today. Probably a good time to debut it, since no body was celebrating after today! 🙁
It’s pretty brutal on Angle. I don’t think they had a tough time deciding. 😉
It begins:
The differences between the Democratic and Republican candidates in this year’s U.S. Senate race couldn’t be starker – and it’s difficult to imagine the stakes being any higher for Nevadans.
Harry Reid, a Democrat, is majority leader of the U.S. Senate. No Nevadan has ever held such influence in Washington – and in light of how much help we will continue to need from the nation’s capital in these trying times, we’re fortunate Reid is there, delivering financial assistance to our state. On a personal level, the senator is plain-spoken and someone who occupies the sensible center of American politics.
On the other side of the ledger is Sharron Angle, a Reno Republican who is the picture-perfect symbol of the radical right in American politics today. During her brief career as an assemblywoman in Carson City, she was a loner and even alienated nearly all of her fellow Republicans because her views were so extreme.
Am I wrong to feel optimistic about this race? It’s a Democratic district. Ann Kuster’s fundraising, as of the end of the 2Q, is very impressive. And she’s picking up the solid majority of the undecideds in the UNH polls.
Does anyone else think madigan probably would have lost had she run this year, for either race. Before everyone chimes in about how popular and wonderful she is, remember how popular manchin is, How the once uber-popular blumenthal let mcmahon almost sneak up on him.
Is this strategic or just plain stupid? Is there really any electoral advantage, even upstate, to being homophobic in NY???
Carl Paladino says it’s not okay to be gay.
“There is nothing to be proud of in being a dysfunctional homosexual,” the Republican gubernatorial candidate told a small Hasidic group at K’hal Adas Kasho synagogue in Williamsburg today.
“That’s not how god created us, and that’s not the example that we should be showing our children.”
Paladino, who has made his opposition to the gay marriage and “the homosexual agenda” clear, went much further yesterday, to say children “would be much better off and much more successful getting married and raising a family” than being gay.”
I am also optimistic about this race, based upon the following poll that showed Chris Carney winning the vote of “voters who have cast ballots in four of the last six general elections.” The margin for that subset is 50% Carney, 35% Tom Marino.
It seems a lot of folks here believe the House is all but gone. I’m still on the fence. I think it looks like the GOP will easily win over 20 seats, but I have doubts over whether they can net the high 30’s while probably losing at least 4 of their own seats (DE-AL, HI-01, LA-02 and IL-10), not to mention the real possibility of picking up the open Diaz-Balert district and defeating Dan Lungren.
The majority is clearly going to come down to a few seats either way.
…am not saying the Dems have lost the House yet at all. Right now, when you go through the races one at a time, it’s like you said: it’s going to be close.
Another yard stick I am using, even if it needs some work, are these nine races.
NY-19
NY-23
NY-24
KY-6
GA-8
FL-2
NM-2
AZ-5
NV-3
Roughly, these are 3 seats each from 3 geographic regions: New England, the South, and the West. The Republicans will have to either (1) win 2 out of each of these groups of 3 or (2) win all 3 in one of these groups.
If Dems can protect at least one seat in each of the three groups, they would be able to hang onto their majority.
For example, the Dems could single out NY-24, KY-6, and NV-3 for protection.
If a Republican were given the power to draw Congressional districts for NYC, how many GOP seats could be drawn? This does not include anything outside of the NYC limits.
I just looked them up. The first states that are going to have some polls closing are Indiana and Kentucky at 6PM EDT on Nov. 2.
These two states are both split between the Eastern and Central time zones. But it wont matter in KY’s case since the two races I’ll be watching (KY-6 and KY-3) are both in Eastern.
I’m sure KY-3 will remain Democratic, but if it doesn’t, then I’ll know it’s going to be a horrible night. If KY-3 remains Dem (as I expect it to), the next test comes with KY-6.
If KY-6 goes Republican, then it’ll be a suspenseful (although not yet horrible) night. If KY-6 stays Democratic, I’ll be satisfied for the moment, but it’ll still be suspenseful.
The time zones of Indiana are a little more tricky. Just looking at a time zone map, I’m not 100% sure that each of the three races I will be watching (IN-2, IN-8, and IN-9) are all in a single time zone. If IN-8 goes Republican (as I expect), then no sweat. If IN-9 goes Republican (as I am suspecting, but nowhere near 100% sure), still no sweat. If either IN-8 or IN-9 stay Dem, the Dems’ night will be significantly improved. If IN-2 goes Republican, it’s going to be a horrible night.
Anyway, that’s going to be the first hour from 6PM-7PM on Nov. 2.
Which members of congress could we see become leaders of their party in congress that are not currently in leadership?
I could have sworn he was in it for a month or two and dropped out.
Ah well, sorry.
For some reason I was thinking Warner was the one that stayed in for two weeks. It was Bayh.
Thanks!
according to Kos, who tweeted:
Wow. Got WA-08 poll results back from @ppppolls. Reichert is in genuine trouble. Rare for (R) incumbent. No intensity gap. Results Monday
Id probably shit a brick if he was my nominee and I had to vote for him. He’d be acceptable for VP and if he can prove himself that way, well then sure go for President. But a Democrat running from Virginia is going to be treated as suspect for the immediate future. Im already going in my head, he voted for DADT repeal right? What’s his opinion on repealing DOMA, is he at least for civil unions because I highly doubt he’d support gay marriage, etc.
Now, the last two out of three Democrats were from AR and GA and I was only six for Clinton’s election. Was this ever an issue? Did liberals in NYC go, wtf? Clinton is still insanely popular with African-Americans; Hillary commanded their votes before Obama legitimized himself to them.
he’s made it clear he’s staying. He’s already taken the wrecking ball to New Jersey’s transportation system by axing the second rail tunnel under the Hudson.
so either he’s prez, VP or GOV. for christie haters, none of those seem good (though VEEP is probably best).
Unfortunately that would have been very problematic since we have quizzes every day and I don’t think we’re allowed to make them up. Worse yet, after class I would have had to go to my volunteer job assisting at a local school, and I wouldn’t have gotten home until 7 (6 AM East Coast)! But if there’s some national holiday on November 3 I doubt I’ll have to go to that either. I really lucked out on this one!
About 200 cheering supporters gathered outside City Hall Saturday to watch U.S. Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., rally for Linda McMahon as she vies for a seat in the U.S. Senate.
…the list is in no particular order. The numbers besides each district are just to quantify the list. I just go down the list of House districts and place them in classes depending on my degree of certainty of whether the Republican is going to win.
we’re almost to 500 comments people, let’s get there! VT republicans will probably gain a seat or two, but will be massively out numbered by dems. the progressives may lose some seats to dems, the D’s have started playing hard ball by challenging progressives rather than trying to work with them.
in 2008, if exit polls showed obama winning NH women, I knew Obama would win, this time around, if it takes less than half an hour to call the house and senate races, dems are in trouble. especially if Ayotte is declared the victor immediately.
It might or might not have been small potatoes, but Gingrich was reprimanded by the House on an overwhelming vote. There have been no accusations of unethical conduct on the part of Pelosi, have there? Furthermore, he led an effort to remove a popular president from office. Pelosi didn’t even hold impeachment hearings of any kind for the unpopular George W. Bush. Then I could talk about the shutdown, another thing Pelosi has never done. So the analogy is possible, but in some ways, perhaps a bit forced.
I’ve heard that he wants the senate seat as a springboard to national office, but i don’t see the appeal.
Basically he seems like Mark Warner, except from a smaller state that’s moving away from the dems instead of towards them and he looks poised to cost them a senate seat (in every, election ordering sense of the word) instead of giving them a seat as warner did.
For primary voters who’d want to vote for an Appalachian moderate candidate, wouldn’t Warner just be better?
Grijalva possibly vulnerable?
http://www.politico.com/news/s…
If he lost, I wonder how that would impact the Progressive Caucus. It seems like he’s one of the most vocal members.
http://www.politico.com/news/s…
http://hotlineoncall.nationalj…
I know, I know. We’re not supposed to reach toward 2012 quite yet. But, it’s still a fascinating result.
I’ve been trying to list the House seats that I think Republicans are going to pick up, in order to see if they are going to take over the House. It’s probably time to update that. Here’s my logic.
The current make-up of the House is 255 Dems; 178 Repubs; and 2 vacancies.
The 2 vacancies are going to be Repub after the election, so let’s just say 255 Dems and 180 Repubs.
By those numbers, Repubs would have to pick up 38 current Dem seats, but Dems are going to pick up at least 3 current Repub seats (LA-2, DE-AL and HI-1). So Repubs are going to need to pick up 41 current Dem seats.
Now, I just try to list the seats that are going to flip from Dem to Repub and see if I get to 41. These are ones that I am fairly certain of…
1. AR-1
2. AR-2
3. CO-4
4. FL-24
5. IL-11
6. IN-8
7. KS-3
8. LA-3
9. MI-1
10. NH-1
11. OH-1
12. OH-15
13. PA-3
14. PA-11
15. TN-6
16. TN-8
17. TX-17
18. VA-2
19. VA-5
20. WA-3
21. WI-7
22. WI-8
23. PA-7
24. OH-16
25. MI-7
26. IN-9
27. FL-8
28. AL-2
29. CO-3
There’s an entire list of others which fall into lesser classes of “I have doubts about it happening, but it probably will”; “Complete tossups/I have no idea”; and “I don’t care what pundits say, these aren’t going Republican”.
But do you guys think the list of 29 above is accurate? Any objections about any of them?
Conflicting internals in MS-4. Taylor claims he’s ahead by 8. Palazzo claims he’s ahead by 4. Split the difference, and you have Taylor ahead by 2 in this confederate district that seems poised to go Republican.
http://picayuneitem.com/local/…
but what do you guys think are the plans for GOPVoter, Zornoph, and MassGOP.
feel free to include conspiracy theories.
my takes
realistic: setting up official guidelines for GOP users to not get banned
unrealistic: GOPVoter moved to New York, is an illegal immigrant, and needs a new ID or Carl Paladino will keep him in an internment camp.
Due to time zones the first polls will close here at 7 AM, Wednesday November 3. I was afraid that due to class I would miss most of election night. But it turns out I don’t have class on November 3! So I can not only watch the election results, but keep watching after most people go to bed. I am one happy nerd right now.
here’s where my ballot’s lining up right now here in California. (Feel free to rake me over the coals):
Gov: Jerry Brown (Brown’s been there and done that while Whitman is another inexperience novice that legislators in both parties will eat up easily. The last thing we need is Schwarzenegger 2.0 with a huge pocket book…unless bribing legislatures was made legal recently.)
Senate: Barbara Boxer (A good progressive foot soldier, plus Fiorina helped outsource good pay jobs + being canned from HP. NRSC struck fools gold here.)
Lt. Gov: Abel Maldonado (State senator who had the courage to cast his vote for the 2009-2010 budget, even though it earned him ridicule from both sides over the top two primary prop, and tax hikes. Plus he’s a moderate who’s seen the light on AB 32, he voted against it in the state senate, but says suspending AB 32 now would be foolhardy because it would kill nascent Green Jobs industry here in California. And I’ve never liked Newsom, he’s been all about making national headlines in my opinion. Respect him for his record on gay rights, but that “Whether you like it or not!” quote didn’t help in the advancement of Gay rights in this country.)
Attorney General: Steve Cooley (Tough on crime DA. And I don’t like Harris for reasons already mentioned.)
Controller: John Chiang
Treasurer: Bill Lockyer
Insurance Commissioner: Dave Jones
Props:
Prop 19: Undecided. (I’ve seen the use of drugs blaze a destructive path through my family. Especially my dad. At the same time many people I know smoke weed..so I truly don’t know if I should vote yes or no. Never thought I would agree with the Howard Jarvis taxpayer’s association with anything.)
Prop 20: No. (We need all the Democrats we can squeeze out of California.)
Prop 21: Yes
Prop 22: Yes (Both sides have good legitimate arguments. On one hand this will protect transportation and local treasuries from Sacramento raids, but at the other hand this means cutting off another revenue source for the state budget. But I’m voting yes, I don’t think its healthy for Sacramento to raid the transit system and county’s treasuries over and over. Plus this isn’t one of these unfunded mandate propositions, its just baring the state from doing something the voters have told them not to.)
Prop 23: FUCK NO (Say no to Texas Oil companies, Global Warming deniers, and the Koch brothers.)
Prop 24: Yes
Prop 25: Yes (A budget 100 days late adding $5 billion more to the state deficit…the 2/3rds budget requirement…bringing US Senate dysfunction to California.)
Prop 26: No (Not more of this 2/3rd’s nonsense.)
Prop 27: No (Thanks to insane gerrymandering, California has one of the most dysfunctional legislatures in the country. If it wasn’t for term limits, we’d probably leapfrog NY in the most hated legislature in the country.)
Anyone got a favorite political song?
Ben Folds just released his new CD and this one has just zoomed to the top of my list:
Hello folks, first post here. Sure have enjoyed SSP since I came across it over the summer. What with all the up and down political news over the last few months it’s great to find a site that gives me the info I want and makes me crack up all at the same time. Anyhoo, moved to AZ 3 years ago, which at the time was a blue trending state with a reasonably left of center gov, Janet Napolitano. Well Obama was elected, he took Napolitano for Homeland Security, Jan Brewer took over, and the rest is history.
Polls show freshman U.S. rep for AZ-01 Anne Kirkpatrick even or down slightly to “rogue dentist” (as SSP calls him) Paul Gosar. There seems to be some ambivalence on how endangered the seat is (didn’t make the top 30 list above, but one commenter suggested adding it)
The wild card in this district it seems, which includes most of the northern part of the state (large swaths of high desert, including fairly blue Flagstaff, home to Northern Arizona University), is the considerable amount of Native Americans in the area. I’ve heard it suggested that Kirkpatrick has the election in the bag because Nov 3rd coincides with the election for President of the Navajo nation, one of the largest native communities in the country. Between the traditional lean to Democrats among NAs and Kirkpatrick’s working the reservation communities fairly well, this is supposed to ensure her a big pro-Kirkpatrick turnout there.
There are however a couple of areas of concern, although I’m not sure how big they are:
1) One of the biggest ongoing local controversies in n. AZ involves the push by ski area Arizona Snowbowl (yes, we have skiing in Arizona . . . Flagstaff got more inches snow than Syracuse NY last winter, which is saying a lot) to use reclaimed wastewater for snowmaking. Kirkpatrick has come out in favor of the plan, which the Navajo and many other tribes in the area consider a desecration of the sacred San Francisco peaks where the ski area is located. Whether this will suppress support or create a down ballot under count is not certain.
2) Flagstaff has some anti-incumbent fervor of its own this spring with mayor Sara Pressler winning re-election by only about 100 votes or so. She had been challenged from the left and the right during the primary, and when the run-off left her facing off against too right for Flagstaff Joe Haughey, she barely hung on. Whether that is evidence of an enthusiasm gap in usually quite lefty friendly Flagstaff (after all a large university town) is also not certain, but there might be something there. Certainly Kirkpatrick’s Blue Dog positions (she recently came out in favor of extending all the Bush tax cuts) won’t get the university tye dye base fired up.
3) Finally, the two front runners to lead the Navajo nation, Ben Shelly and Linda Lovejoy (who would be first woman Navajo president) are from the New Mexico side of the Navajo boundary. Again, no evidence neccesarily that turnout will be less in AZ as a result, but that’s another minor detail that seems less than ideal.
OK, lots of minutia on a district that is a little under the radar, but hopefully something that readers at this site will find interesting.
looking at pollster.com and both candidates seem to be having a synchronized swan dive. There’s still runoffs there right? Would it be better to go to a runoff, or does Barnes have to win on election day to win? I know in 2008 jim Martin had to win on election day, because afterward the obama electorate wouldn’t show up, but that’s probably not the same in 2010. Both electorates will probably be conservative, but will the run-offs be worse?
… I am convinced that partisan control of the House will be decided by the outcome of these races.
NH-2
SD-AL
FL-2
GA-8
WV-1
NV-3
NY-23
NY-24
AZ-5
NM-2
PA-10
TX-23
These are the most important races I am going to be watching on election night. I’ll have to find out the poll closing times in each one, so I can observe as the hours go by.
These will make the difference between whether the Republicans are going to have a net gain of closer to 30 seats my hope) or closer to 45 seats (where people like Cook and Sabato say things will end up).
http://seattletimes.nwsource.c…
The Seattle Times used to be a right-tilting publication, but when the Seattle Post-Intelligence went down, they swung to the center.
http://www.bing.com/videos/wat…
Now can ya’ll see why me and andyroo love to watch Fiorina talk?
Mostly complete (enough to pass the 3 paragraph rule here), details the state of the major races here in California. If your tired of reading gloomy posts, mine should raise your spirits (if your a California resident that is :P).
http://www.swingstateproject.c…
And yet, I am not surprised.
http://blogs.ajc.com/georgia_e…
Wondering if McAdams momentum shows in the polls. He seems to be a good campaigner and took in a lot of cash. Anyone know any news from there?
The federal government announced it will be freezing Social Security benefits in 2011, instead of increasing them slightly to adjust for the increasing cost of living as they normally do. Let’s see if Republicans try to work the senior vote with this, although I hate it when either party twists stories like this to scare gullible old ladies into voting for them.
I’ve been saying this for months and with each day, a half dozen new polls show up indicating Democrats that were completely off of anybody’s vulnerability radar screen are either behind, tied, or leading something like 45-42. Much as we dismiss some of them as bad polls, I highly doubt they’re all wrong. So my question is this….how many more Democrats will we discover are poised to lose or barely eke out a win in the next couple of weeks?
There are a few Democratic incumbents who I think will survive only because of battleground Senate races in their state are likely to bring out more Democrats than will be the case nationwide. This will probably help John Yarmuth and Shelley Berkeley keep their jobs, even though I doubt either would if their wasn’t a crazy Republican at the top of their state’s ticket bringing out Democrats to the polls.
But with the addition of names like Barney Frank, Jim Oberstar, and John Dingell to the endangered list, it tells me we’re gonna be shocked at plenty other casualties who haven’t even polled yet. My guesses for the two under-the-radar Democrats most likely to lose….Dennis Kucinich and Anthony Weiner.
I would have never expected Betty Sutton to be vulnerable in OH-13 a couple of months ago, but knowing that she is, would it be beyond the realm for the always-underperforming Kucinich to be felled in his demographically similar district next door? A Republican held this seat from 1993-1996 because of a scandal, and lo and behold, Cuyahoga County Democratic scandals have re-emerged to muddy things up there again this year. Given the voters’ long-standing frustration with Kucinich’s quirks, he seems like a prime candidate for surprise defeat this year.
Then you have Anthony Weiner, whose district has moved sharply to Republicans in the last decade, with Obama defeating McCain by a mere 10 points. Will Weiner be penalized for his rising national profile and time spent on cable news shows? Will he be penalized for his advocacy of a health care bill that probably isn’t popular in his district? Will his Italian-heavy district turn out to support Palladino and Dio Guardi in large enough numbers to boost overall Republican performance to a level that washes Weiner away? Given the anecdotal evidence we’ve seen in the past year in vaguely similar suburban New York elections, I’d say the chances of Weiner being defeated are far higher than anyone believes.
I’m sure there are Democrats who I’m not even anticipating that are stealthly being groomed for defeat this year. The battleground is probably 50 seats larger than anyone believes, and that’s why I think the Republicans will gain a bare minimum of 80 seats…and probably closer to 100.
http://www.wtnh.com/dpp/news/p…
like susan collins two terms in maine, or almost every other politician who promised term limits. it’s free media at least, i guess.
I have seen decent DCCC ads now in both the MS-1 and AR-1 races in the Memphis market. The AR-1 is a tad more clever in portraying Crawford (R) support of semi-SS privatization as a scheme to turn SS into a “welfare program” for the worst off while leaving everyone else to fend for themselves. “Welfare” is repeated several times in the ad for good measure.
The MS-1 ad just re-hits Nunnelee (R) on raising taxes in the State Senate and supporting the “fair tax”, it’s a rather corny cartoonish ad in execution, but effective enough in delivering the message.
No DCCC ads in TN-8. TONS, and I mean TONS, of 3rd party ads against Herron (D) though. Makes me wonder why 3rd party spenders are wasting big money here if the DCCC isn’t finding reason to spend yet. On the ground the perception is Herron is making up ground with his campaign appearing to have some life and late momentum, but whether he can close the gap to actually win is not remotely clear with the lack of public polling and/or recent leaks. This race now appears like it will at least not be blowout, but that’s little solace if Herron loses on election night.
It’s an internet poll of registered voters, so it’s probably not worth the (electronic) paper it’s printed on. But here are the numbers:
Gov: Brown 53, Whitman 41
Sen: Boxer 55, Fiorina 39
501 registered voters, Oct 4-6
http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-c…
note of thanks to the mods. I love the split open threads. It makes it a lot easier.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/…
(Sorry if I’m starting to sound like a shill for Fiorina newspaper endorsements. Her Twitter feed is just updated about every five seconds.)
I hate the message (including reference to “Obamacare” and literally taking aim at cap-and-trade), but I think it’s politically brilliant:
This is insane. Kirk I could understand, but uber-conservative Brady?
http://www.chicagotribune.com/…
A new EPIC-MRA poll just came out showing Snyder under 50% for first time in a while. He does, however, still have a 20% lead (down from a 24% lead in the last poll).
http://www.wxyz.com/dpp/news/p…
I guess they wanted to release this before the one, and only, debate tonight.
Conway still hitting Paul for flip-flopping on the Medicare deductible.
Clinton is going to stump for Senator Bennet.
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.c…
paid for by The Coven to Elect Christine O’Donnell, Who Is Not a Witch:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…
Debuted during the Saints game today. Probably a good time to debut it, since no body was celebrating after today! 🙁
It’s pretty brutal on Angle. I don’t think they had a tough time deciding. 😉
It begins:
http://www.lasvegassun.com/new…
Am I wrong to feel optimistic about this race? It’s a Democratic district. Ann Kuster’s fundraising, as of the end of the 2Q, is very impressive. And she’s picking up the solid majority of the undecideds in the UNH polls.
Does anyone else think madigan probably would have lost had she run this year, for either race. Before everyone chimes in about how popular and wonderful she is, remember how popular manchin is, How the once uber-popular blumenthal let mcmahon almost sneak up on him.
Is this strategic or just plain stupid? Is there really any electoral advantage, even upstate, to being homophobic in NY???
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/l…
I am also optimistic about this race, based upon the following poll that showed Chris Carney winning the vote of “voters who have cast ballots in four of the last six general elections.” The margin for that subset is 50% Carney, 35% Tom Marino.
http://citizensvoice.com/news/…
It seems a lot of folks here believe the House is all but gone. I’m still on the fence. I think it looks like the GOP will easily win over 20 seats, but I have doubts over whether they can net the high 30’s while probably losing at least 4 of their own seats (DE-AL, HI-01, LA-02 and IL-10), not to mention the real possibility of picking up the open Diaz-Balert district and defeating Dan Lungren.
The majority is clearly going to come down to a few seats either way.
…am not saying the Dems have lost the House yet at all. Right now, when you go through the races one at a time, it’s like you said: it’s going to be close.
Another yard stick I am using, even if it needs some work, are these nine races.
NY-19
NY-23
NY-24
KY-6
GA-8
FL-2
NM-2
AZ-5
NV-3
Roughly, these are 3 seats each from 3 geographic regions: New England, the South, and the West. The Republicans will have to either (1) win 2 out of each of these groups of 3 or (2) win all 3 in one of these groups.
If Dems can protect at least one seat in each of the three groups, they would be able to hang onto their majority.
For example, the Dems could single out NY-24, KY-6, and NV-3 for protection.
If a Republican were given the power to draw Congressional districts for NYC, how many GOP seats could be drawn? This does not include anything outside of the NYC limits.
I just looked them up. The first states that are going to have some polls closing are Indiana and Kentucky at 6PM EDT on Nov. 2.
These two states are both split between the Eastern and Central time zones. But it wont matter in KY’s case since the two races I’ll be watching (KY-6 and KY-3) are both in Eastern.
I’m sure KY-3 will remain Democratic, but if it doesn’t, then I’ll know it’s going to be a horrible night. If KY-3 remains Dem (as I expect it to), the next test comes with KY-6.
If KY-6 goes Republican, then it’ll be a suspenseful (although not yet horrible) night. If KY-6 stays Democratic, I’ll be satisfied for the moment, but it’ll still be suspenseful.
The time zones of Indiana are a little more tricky. Just looking at a time zone map, I’m not 100% sure that each of the three races I will be watching (IN-2, IN-8, and IN-9) are all in a single time zone. If IN-8 goes Republican (as I expect), then no sweat. If IN-9 goes Republican (as I am suspecting, but nowhere near 100% sure), still no sweat. If either IN-8 or IN-9 stay Dem, the Dems’ night will be significantly improved. If IN-2 goes Republican, it’s going to be a horrible night.
Anyway, that’s going to be the first hour from 6PM-7PM on Nov. 2.
Which members of congress could we see become leaders of their party in congress that are not currently in leadership?
Senate:
Dems:
Gillibrand
Klobuchar
Michael Bennet
McCaskill
Merkely
Reps:
Burr
Wicker
Corker
Cornyn
Roberts
LeMieux (if he goes back in 2012)
House:
Dems:
Debbie Wasserman Shultz
Chris Van Hollen
Reps:
Paul Ryan
Steve Scalise
Jeb Hensarling
Pete Sessions
http://www.denverpost.com/opin…
That NBC does NOT report PPP polls, just because they are robo-polls? http://www.salon.com/entertain…
Wow, you’re right.
I could have sworn he was in it for a month or two and dropped out.
Ah well, sorry.
For some reason I was thinking Warner was the one that stayed in for two weeks. It was Bayh.
Thanks!
according to Kos, who tweeted:
Id probably shit a brick if he was my nominee and I had to vote for him. He’d be acceptable for VP and if he can prove himself that way, well then sure go for President. But a Democrat running from Virginia is going to be treated as suspect for the immediate future. Im already going in my head, he voted for DADT repeal right? What’s his opinion on repealing DOMA, is he at least for civil unions because I highly doubt he’d support gay marriage, etc.
Now, the last two out of three Democrats were from AR and GA and I was only six for Clinton’s election. Was this ever an issue? Did liberals in NYC go, wtf? Clinton is still insanely popular with African-Americans; Hillary commanded their votes before Obama legitimized himself to them.
he’s made it clear he’s staying. He’s already taken the wrecking ball to New Jersey’s transportation system by axing the second rail tunnel under the Hudson.
so either he’s prez, VP or GOV. for christie haters, none of those seem good (though VEEP is probably best).
Unfortunately that would have been very problematic since we have quizzes every day and I don’t think we’re allowed to make them up. Worse yet, after class I would have had to go to my volunteer job assisting at a local school, and I wouldn’t have gotten home until 7 (6 AM East Coast)! But if there’s some national holiday on November 3 I doubt I’ll have to go to that either. I really lucked out on this one!
http://www.nhregister.com/arti…
…the list is in no particular order. The numbers besides each district are just to quantify the list. I just go down the list of House districts and place them in classes depending on my degree of certainty of whether the Republican is going to win.
we’re almost to 500 comments people, let’s get there! VT republicans will probably gain a seat or two, but will be massively out numbered by dems. the progressives may lose some seats to dems, the D’s have started playing hard ball by challenging progressives rather than trying to work with them.
in 2008, if exit polls showed obama winning NH women, I knew Obama would win, this time around, if it takes less than half an hour to call the house and senate races, dems are in trouble. especially if Ayotte is declared the victor immediately.
It might or might not have been small potatoes, but Gingrich was reprimanded by the House on an overwhelming vote. There have been no accusations of unethical conduct on the part of Pelosi, have there? Furthermore, he led an effort to remove a popular president from office. Pelosi didn’t even hold impeachment hearings of any kind for the unpopular George W. Bush. Then I could talk about the shutdown, another thing Pelosi has never done. So the analogy is possible, but in some ways, perhaps a bit forced.
WOOT!
RV’s:
generic ballot: 45 Dem, 41 Rep; with leaners: 47 Dem, 43 Rep
9/22-10/3 date, they called a lot of cell phones and did up to 4 callbacks, did both English and Spanish, live operator. great poll methodology.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/…
+4 with RV’s is probably tied with LV’s but that would still be a whole lot better than most recent polls.