I think this would be a good firewall for limit the republican gains to reasonable limits. Like all in this world, this is good for today but I will update the diary after know new results in this week.
This diary is not based only in the polls, but the polls are important information what we can not forget.
For the next boxes (quotes), this is the code for some statewide offices:
AG=Attorney General
SS=Secretary of State
ST=State Treasurer
SC=State Comptroller
SA=State Auditor)
PS: I’m updating the diary every day after know the new polls and other changes.
First I will resume the gains what I can accept (so resigned):
REPUBLICAN LIKELY GAINS WHAT I ASSUME AT THIS POINT
The order is not the most important thing here.
SENATE (3):
ND-Sen
IN-Sen
AR-Sen B LincolnGOVERNOR (7):
WY-Gov
KS-Gov
TN-Gov
OK-Gov
OH-Gov T Strickland
MI-Gov
IA-Gov C CulverHOUSE (25):
TN-06
KS-03
LA-03
IN-08
AR-02
FL-02 A Boyd
TN-08
OH-16 J Boccieri
VA-02 G Nye
MI-01
NY-29
IL-11 D Halvorson
PA-03 K Dahlkemper
NH-01 C Shea-Porter
OH-01 S Driehaus
WI-07
OH-15 M Kilroy
PA-11 P Karjorski
FL-24 S Kosmas
TX-17 C Edwards
VA-05 T Perriello
AR-01
WI-08 S Kagen
CO-04 E Markey
TX-27 S OrtizLIEUTENANT GOVERNOR (7):
LA-LG
KS-LG
OK-LG
OH-LG
MI-LG
IA-LG
AR-LGSTATEWIDE OFFICES (15):
AL-CAI (Commissioner of Agriculture and Industries)
AR-CSL (Commissioner of State Lands)
KS-SS C Biggs
OK-AG
KS-ST D McKinney
OK-ST
KS-AG S Six
OK-CL (Commissioner of Labor) L Fields
GA-AG
FL-CFO (Chief Financial Officer)
IL-SC
OK-SA S Burrage
OK-IC (Insurance Commissioner) K Holland
OH-AG R Cordray
AR-SSI’m not optimistic about some statewide offices in Arkansas. They are some obscure polls (Hendrix College) what seem contradictories. The poll of Sooner confirms my bad numbers about the statewide offices in Oklahoma.
In the other side the likely democratic gains would be:
DEMOCRATIC LIKELY GAINS WITHOUT EXCESSIVE OPTIMISM
SENATE (0):
—GOVERNOR (7):
RI-Gov F Caprio
MN-Gov M Dayton
HI-Gov N Abercrombie
CT-Gov D Malloy
CA-Gov J Brown
FL-Gov A Sink
VT-Gov P ShumlinHOUSE (7):
DE-AL J Carney
IL-10 D Seals
FL-25 J Garcia
FL-12 L Edwards (The reupublicans can have bad numbers here)
AZ-03 J Hulburd
HI-01 C Hanabusa
LA-02 C RichmondLIEUTENANT GOVERNOR (6):
VT-LG S Howard
MN-LG Y Prettner Solon
HI-LG B Schatz
CT-LG N Wyman
CA-LG G Newsom
FL-LG R SmithSTATEWIDE OFFICES (3):
NM-CPL (Commissioner of Public Lands) R Powell
CA-IC (Insurance Commissioner) D Jones
VT-SA D HofferStill they are not enough data for have a strong opinion about VT-LG, NM-CPL, CA-IC and VT-SA, I think the democratic side can be favored.
Few more winnable races, I look to KY-Sen (J Conway), WA-08 (S DelBene) and to some surprise statewide (basically can come from AZ-ST, IN-SS, SC-AG, SC-LG, SD-SS, FL-CACS or OH-SA). If the democratic side keeps PA-Gov, PA-LG (H Scott Conklin) would be a gain too.
That would give a net loses of (until now):
Senate: -3
Governor: =0 (but FL-Gov is a gain from Independents)
House: -18
Lieutenant Governor: -1
Statewide Offices: -12
Sure the democratic side will have more loses. For keep the majority in the senate the democrats can lose 4 seats more (looking to J Lieberman) and for keep the majority in the house 20 seats (17 without FL-25, FL-12 and AZ-03), what the republicans must win from this “firewall”:
FIREWALL FOR FIGHT HARD AGAINST MORE REPUBLICAN GAINS
All the races included in every level of the firewall are races for fight hard if it is necessary.
LEVEL1: Hard work bust still some hope
SENATE (0):
—GOVERNOR (3):
NM-Gov D Denish
PA-Gov D Onorato
WI-Gov T BarrettHOUSE (11):
MS-01 T Childers
FL-08 A Grayson
AZ-01 A Kirkpatrick
PA-10 C Carney
MD-01 F Kratovil
CO-03 J Salazar
NM-02 H Teague
NY-19 J Hall
IL-14 W Foster
PA-07 B Lentz
WA-03 D HeckLIEUTENANT GOVERNOR (2):
NM-LG B Colon
WI-LG T NelsonSTATEWIDE OFFICES (0):
—Still losing all these offices, the democrats are under the limits for keep the majority in both chambers. Maybe the republicans win the majority, but I think they will lose some of these offices.
LEVEL2: The pure Toss-Up zone
SENATE (2):
WI-Sen R Feingold
NV-Sen H ReidGOVERNOR (2):
IL-Gov P Quinn
ME-Gov E MitchellHOUSE (18):
AZ-05 H Mitchell
ND-AL E Pomeroy
TN-04 L Davis
GA-08 J Marshall
MO-04 I Skelton
CA-11 J McNerney
MI-07 M Schauer
NY-23 W Owens
IL-17 P Hare
PA-08 P Murphy
NV-03 D Titus
TX-23 C Rodriguez
NC-02 B Etheridge
OH-18 Z Space
AZ-08 G Giffords
IL-08 M Bean
VA-11 G Connolly
OR-05 K SchraderLIEUTENANT GOVERNOR (1):
IL-LG S SimonSTATEWIDE OFFICES (10):
CA-AG K Harris
OK-SPI (Superintendent of Public Instruction) S Paddack
OH-ST K Boyce
AZ-AG F Rotellini
SC-SE (Superintendent of Education) F Holleman
GA-CL (Commissioner of Labor) D Hicks
GA-CA (Commissioner of Agriculture) J Powell
CO-ST C Kennedy
IL-ST R Kelly
CO-SS B BuescherIn this group they are a decent number of underpolled races. Some polls would help to reduce the size of this group, because some races seem to go better than the polls show (IL-08,…).
I think some of the races of this group are more difficult than some of the Level1 but some of this races have more favorable polls than expected. Still I think the republicans will win less than the half of these races.
LEVEL3: Favored but decent risk
SENATE (3):
CO-Sen M Bennet
PA-Sen J Sestak
IL-Sen A GiannouliasGOVERNOR (1):
OR-Gov J KitzhaberHOUSE (15):
WV-01 M Oliverio
AL-02 B Bright
IN-09 B Hill
NC-08 L Kissell
SD-AL C Herseth-Sandlin
FL-22 R Klein
IA-03 L Boswell
OH-06 C Wilson
MS-04 G Taylor
PA-12 M Critz
NY-20 S Murphy
MA-10 W Keating
CO-07 E Perlmutter
NH-02 A Kuster
OH-13 B SuttonLIEUTENANT GOVERNOR (0):
—STATEWIDE OFFICES (4):
OH-SS M O’Shaughnessy
IA-SS M Mauro
DE-ST C Flowers
NV-SC K MarshallThe republicans can win some of this races but I think will be few, very few.
OFFICES BY STATE IN THE FIREWALL
IL=7 (IL-Sen and IL-Gov) Battleground state
PA=6 (PA-Sen and PA-Gov) Battleground state
CO=5 (CO-Sen) Battleground state
OH=5
AZ=4
WI=3 (WI-Sen and WI-Gov) Battleground state
NV=3 (Sen)
NM=3 (Gov)
NY=3
GA=3
Other states have only 2 or 1 offices.I keep my recommendation of donate to the democratic candidates in the bold emphasized races especially in the battleground states. The alone change is include NV-Sen and leaves FL-Gov and OH-Gov. A Sink is opening a good advantage and seems need less. With the gubernatorial race in Ohio going toward the republican side, Ohio would not be a battleground state. Still they are many lower level competitive elections.
I think will be not easy what the republicans win the majority in the senate or in the house. I think the democrats can keep the majority in both chambers. If you start to count they are not enough seat where the republicans seems enough favored for win clearly. Then it is time for fight and keep the wish of win.
The rest of the offices currently in democratic hands seems a little safer (including WV-Sen J Manchin, KY-06 B Chandler, SC-05 J Spratt, NC-07 M McIntyre and NY-24 M Arcuri as the more difficult seats). But still, for have not surprises I want some poll about:
STILL LOOKING FOR SOME POLL
SENATE (0):
—GOVERNOR (0):
—HOUSE (0):
—LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR (0):
—STATEWIDE OFFICES (5):
VT-SS J Condos
OR-ST T Wheeler
MN-SA R Otto
NM-SS M Herrera
MO-SA S Montee
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Lori Edwards is very underfunded and surely has a less than 50/50 chance of winning. On the other side, Feingold is far from a pure tossup, but pretty clearly behind at this point. Only one poll that just came out has the race a dead heat, and unless I’m very much mistaken, it was a Democratic internal poll.
Wait, what?
Why do you peg AZ State Treasurer as a race to watch for an upset? I think it’s one of our least likely pick-ups in Arizona, easily behind Superintendent of Public Instruction and probably behind Secretary of State and at least one of the seats of the Corporation Commission. Republican candidate Doug Ducey has some problems, most notably not bothering to pay his taxes on one of his mansions for a few years, but I’ve never been impressed by Democrat Andrei Cherny. He’s definitely a carpetbagger for one, and his involvement with both the Clinton and Obama Whitehouses isn’t going to go over well in a year like this. Add to that the fact that Ducey is willing to spend a lot of his money on a low-information race, I’m not terrible optimistic here.
I also find it kind of weird that you highlight AZ-ST as a potential upset yet call AZ-AG a likely gain for Republicans. We finally have a poll out of that race and it looks like a tossup.
Rocky Mountain Poll (10/1-10, Registered Voters)
Felecia Rotellini (D) 34%
Tom Horne (R) 34%
Unsure 32%
(MoE: ±4.2%)
Rocky Mountain Poll also provides their maybe weird, maybe just LVs, “Most Likely Voter” model, and Horne leads that 40%-36%. This race won’t be easy, but Rotellini has been picking up a lot of bipartisan support, including a strong endorsement by the Republican-leaning Arizona Republic newspaper. Horne, meanwhile, has to run on his disastrous tenure as the Superintendent of Public Instruction, during which Arizona schools consistently ranked among the top 5 worst in the country.
What would be?
I’m now much more confident of holding it than I was last weekend. I’ve moved WA out and WV, IL and NV remain. Actually, lose those three and we still have 50-50. PA and WI could still be interesting with Sestak more likely than Feingold.