WV-Sen: Hicks in Sticks Nix NRSC’s Picks

Orion Strategies for Marshall University (10/11-12, likely voters, no trendlines):

Joe Manchin (D): 48

John Raese (R): 38

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±4.6%)

Here’s some more evidence that Joe Manchin’s on an upswing in West Virginia, after having bottomed out for a few weeks there when John Raese hadn’t yet been defined and was a shiny new object that fit nicely with voters’ discontent with Washington. We don’t have trendlines from this pollster (so, for all we know, their model might not have seen a Raese lead at any point), but it’s probably not a coincidence that Manchin climbing back into the lead in multiple polls has to do with Dems having engaged the ad war and exposed Raese, as well as help from surrogates like Bill Clinton and of course the NRSC‘s “hicky” ad controversy, which seemed to have more legs than I originally gave it credit for and, if nothing else, took the GOP off-message here.

Orion Strategies is a local firm that has worked on behalf of both Democratic campaigns and nonpartisan organizations. Here, they’re working on behalf of Marshall University, and the chair of the State Elections Commission (a registered Republican and professor) was consultant to the poll, so things seem above-board here.

32 thoughts on “WV-Sen: Hicks in Sticks Nix NRSC’s Picks”

  1. that he’s so willing to throw health care form and cap and trade (although I am more forgiving on the latter, since West Virginia is a coal state) under the bus, but it makes sense, I guess. After all, will his votes really be the ones that are deciding any of these issues? And really, if Reese is elected, will he ever agree with Democrats on any issue? Indeed, I go back and forth on the idea of letting Democrats make exceptions to key party issues, but here it looks to be a smart move. If it’s going to keep the seat out of the hands of Republicans, even if it’s only until the next cycle, it’s a good thing.  

  2. It’s hard to believe this poll, unknown record to me, also, nothing changed since CNN poll showed the race tied 2 days ago. On an unrelated race, I’m seeing an independent poll (I think it is), that has Souther land (R) crushing Blue-Dog Boyd 56-30 in FL-2.

  3. But at the very least, it seems like Manchin is retaking the lead. I don’t think WV will be lost, but I’m not sure yet just how small or big Manchin’s margin will be.

  4. I’m very happy with the new trend here.  Saving WV is key to keeping a decent Senate majority.  CT is in the bag, we’re going to win CA and WA, and hopefully Reid will pull it out although I’ve become newly nervous the past couple weeks.  But WV is very important, getting Manchin over the hump guarantees we keep the Senate.

  5. Forgive me for going off-topic, but with no morning thread and 300 posts in yesterday afternoon’s thread I thought I’d post this here.

    Ohio Poll (Univ. of Cincinnati) LV 10/8-13 MOE +/- 3.7%

    Kasich 51

    Strickland 43

    Portman 58

    Fisher 36


    The topline trends weren’t posted, but this is a +4 movement for Kasich and a +7 move for Portman. I had some hope that Strickland could turn this one out, but that is getting more deflated by the day.  

  6. start to being asked?

    I was always willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and thought that his numbers were relatively similar during election season to other pollsters.

    But it seems to me that this year he is increasingly providing pro-GOP outliers.

    I’ll just take the example of WA-Sen, but I think it applies in other races as well.

    Ras is the only pollster that has found Rossi with a lead (albeit a very small one).

    In the last week we have:

    Elway – Murray 55, Rossi 41

    CNN/Time – Murray 51, Rossi 43

    Rasmussen – Murray 46, Rossi 47

    SUSA – Murray 50, Rossi 47

    Washington Poll – Murray 50, Rossi 42

    One of these things is not like the other . . .

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