Orion Strategies for Marshall University (10/11-12, likely voters, no trendlines):
Joe Manchin (D): 48
John Raese (R): 38
Here’s some more evidence that Joe Manchin’s on an upswing in West Virginia, after having bottomed out for a few weeks there when John Raese hadn’t yet been defined and was a shiny new object that fit nicely with voters’ discontent with Washington. We don’t have trendlines from this pollster (so, for all we know, their model might not have seen a Raese lead at any point), but it’s probably not a coincidence that Manchin climbing back into the lead in multiple polls has to do with Dems having engaged the ad war and exposed Raese, as well as help from surrogates like Bill Clinton and of course the NRSC‘s “hicky” ad controversy, which seemed to have more legs than I originally gave it credit for and, if nothing else, took the GOP off-message here.
Orion Strategies is a local firm that has worked on behalf of both Democratic campaigns and nonpartisan organizations. Here, they’re working on behalf of Marshall University, and the chair of the State Elections Commission (a registered Republican and professor) was consultant to the poll, so things seem above-board here.