SSP Daily Digest: 10/22 (Morning Edition)

  • AR-Sen (Mason-Dixon): Blanche Lincoln (D-inc) 34, John Boozman (R) 55
  • CA-Sen (Tarrance Group for NRSC): Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 44, Carly Fiorina (R) 44
  • CT-Sen, CT-Gov (PDF) (Suffolk): Richard Blumenthal (D) 57, Linda McMahon (R) 39; Dan Malloy (D) 49, Tom Foley (R) 38 (PDF of crosstabs)
  • Rather unusually, Suffolk included Blumenthal & Malloy twice in their head-to-head questions: once as the Dem candidate, and once as the Working Families Party candidate. Each got about 3-4% as the WFP candidate. I’ve never seen a pollster do this in New York, where the practice of fusion voting is best known.

  • IL-Gov (PPP): Pat Quinn (D-inc) 41 (35), Bill Brady (R) 42 (42)
  • FL-22 (Susquehanna for Sunshine State News): Ron Klein (D-inc) 44, Allen West (R) 47
  • MA-04 (Fleming & Associates for WPRI): Barney Frank (D-inc) 49, Sean Bielat (R) 37
  • MD-01 (Monmouth): Frank Kratovil (D-inc) 42, Andy Harris (R) 53
  • MI-03 (EPIC/MRA): Pat Miles (D) 37, Justin Amash (R) 46
  • MN-01 (Grove Insight (D) for Project New West): Tim Walz (D-inc) 50, Randy Demmer (R) 34
  • MS-04 (Tarrance Group (R) for Steven Palazzo): Gene Taylor (D-inc) 41, Steven Palazzo (R) 43
  • NC-11 (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) for DCCC): Heath Shuler (D-inc) 54, Jeff Miller 39
  • NM-02 (Tarrance Group (R) for Steve Pearce): Harry Teague (D-inc) 41, Steve Pearce (R) 50
  • NY-20 (Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Chris Gibson): Scott Murphy (D-inc) 42, Chris Gibson 44
  • OR-05 (SurveyUSA for KATU-TV): Kurt Schrader (D-inc) 41, Scott Bruun (R) 51
  • Note: Among the 10% who have already voted, Schrader leads 47-46. This continues a pattern we’ve seen in other SUSA polls (and also some, but not all, of the early voting numbers by party registration).

  • PA-06 (Monmouth): Manan Trivedi (D) 44, Jim Gerlach (R-inc) 54
  • PA-17 (Susquehanna for ABC27 News): Tim Holden (D-inc) 58, Justin Argall (R) 28
  • TX-23 (OnMessage (R) for Quico Canseco): Ciro Rodriguez (D-inc) 39, Quico Canseco (R) 45
  • VA-02 (PDF) (Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Scott Rigell): Glenn Nye (D-inc) 41, Scott Rigell 46 (R)
  • VA-05 (Benenson Strategy Group (D) for Tom Perriello): Tom Perriello (D-inc) 46, Rob Hurt (R) 47
  • WA-08 (SurveyUSA for KING-TV): Suzan DelBene (D) 45 (45), Dave Reichert (R-inc) 52 (52)
  • 240 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 10/22 (Morning Edition)”

    1. Via Drudge, out of all places, GOP candidate in TX-30 (Eddie Bernice Johnson D+27): Violent overthrow of government option is on the table…..

    2. If dems were up that much we’d consider them likely D at worse. That OR-05 really surprised me. It seems like Survey USA has had a Republican lean this year but even so a 9 point gap for a longtime incumbant is scary.

      MD-01: Harris seems to have finally put some distance Kratovil. Can’t say it really is that surprising. It is more surprising it took Harris that long to get ahead in which should be a sure pick GOP pick-up.

      I think Gilcrest endorsing O’Malley hurt Kratovil. Now no one thinks of Gilcrest as a voice of reason Republican. He looks like more of an average left of center guy.  

    3. Statewide things still aren’t pretty but African-Americans increased their turnout from 16.5 to 16.7% yesterday.  Democrats are still only at a 44-38% advantage in the turnout pie.  Registration-wise, the Dems have a 45-32% margin.  Of course, being the south, all of our Democrats can’t be counted on.  Plus, this clearly shows a major enthusiasm gap for the GOP.

      On a macro level, it aint purdy.  Brunswick County, in the heart of McIntyre’s district, and New Hanover (Wilmington) are still turning out way more Republicans than Democrats and worse, Brunswick County already has a 12% overall turnout.  Compare that to Wake County, Raleigh, or heavily-Democratic Halifax County, which each have just over 1% overall turnout.

      On a micro level, a handful of our legislative districts look decent.  There are places were Democrats a larger piece of the turnout pie than they are of the registration pie (if that makes sense).  Unfortunately, overall turnout in those places is not great.  

    4. GOP continuing to hold early lead in FL voting; both absentee and early votes.

      Any other year, I don’t think Rick Scott could win but with the way this year is going, I’m considering that he’s the favorite though a Sink victory would hardly shock me.

    5. Dayton 44, Emmer 41, Horner 10

      Sorry Scott, but there’s no way I can buy the prospect of Emmer as high as 41% or Horner as low at 10%.  Makes me question how valid any of his polling anywhere in the country is.

    6. DCCC spending more money on ads targeting Mariannette Miller-Meeks.

      MMM released toplines from an internal by Tarrance showing her ahead of Loebsack 45-44. As usual, no details about the sample demographics, question wordings or order. I asked for more details–nothing. A former MMM staffer who is now a volunteer (I think), responds to me, “  ranks Tarrance as most acc. partisan pollster, around 20 out of 70-some overall.”

      It bothers me that Nate Silver’s pollster rankings are used as an excuse to avoid transparency about survey data. I believe the IA-02 race is close. All I want to know is whether the Tarrance sample resembles the likely electorate, and whether the questions were asked in a way that might have influenced the topline results. Youth turnout in Iowa City is through the roof because of the ballot initiative about the 21-only bar rule.

    7. I think that DSCC ads have been, well, rather lame this cycle.

      This ad, however, is hard-hitting and uses Ken Buck’s words against him. Really powerful stuff:

    8. Could you continue to put the CSpan Debate schedule on the PM update?  I was glad you did a few days ago, because I forget about it every night, and SSP would definitely remind me.

      By the way, tonight (all ET):

      7pm PA-Sen

      8pm IN-09

      9pm Obama with Reid

    9. Lots of tv ads in these campaigns–in many districts I see Republicans on tv but not Democrats. In the most competitive districts Democrats are also on tv. The Republican ads have a cookie-cutter feel (wasteful spending, pork barrel projects, etc).

    10. endorses Sestak. This is from earlier this week, but I don’t remember seeing it posted here. PPG is largest daily in Pittsburgh, according to Wiki. Not sure about their leanings, though I’m guessing center-left.

      Yet Mr. Toomey, the father of three, is a soft-spoken, amiable candidate. He lacks the bark of a Rick Santorum, but he would easily replicate the former senator’s voting record. An analysis last May by said Mr. Toomey was more conservative than 98 percent of all members of Congress since 1995 — and much more conservative than Mr. Santorum. Which raises the question, do Pennsylvanians really want to turn back the clock?

      With Joe Sestak on the ballot, voters don’t have to. His views are in sync with the state and his voice calls for moderation. For that reason, he has earned the Post-Gazette endorsement.

    11. CO-Gov race is looking pretty competitive; Ky thinks Aqua Buddha ad was over the line; CA prop 19 polling looking bad.

      It is looking like next week may be a bad polling week for Dems with that news.  

    12. Hickenlooper 44%

      Tancredo 43%

      Maes 9%

      Partisan breakdown: 38% Republican, 35% Democrat, 27% Unaffilated

      I know it’s a Magellan poll and will be dismissed by many, but Tancredo continues to benefit from the dwindling support for Maes.  Hickenlooper hasn’t really gotten out of the 43-47% range in any poll recently and Tancredo’s numbers are on the rise.  Another important element obviously is whether or not Maes breaks 10% in reference to future elections.

    13. http://www.magellanstrategies….

      Things of note..

      – Tancredo is coalescing the GOP vote, with only 15% sticking with Maes.

      – Tancredo has an 8-point edge among Independents.

      – Only 2% are undecided, meaning, if these #s hold any water, Hickenlooper’s probably stuck around 44-45%, with all other movement occuring between Tancredo and Maes.

      (Of course, take all of this with a grain of salt, though my own voter model actually also shows Tancredo within striking distance, with Hickenlooper up 47-45-8.)

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