As October winds down, it’s time that we put up another Senate cattle call. By now, you should all be familiar with the rules: Rank the Senate seats that are up this year in order of likelihood of flipping from one party to the other. The traditional SSP way is to include seats held by both parties in a single list (separate lists make comparisons harder). Go as far down the list as you like.
It might also be helpful to indicate the cutoff point where you think the losses end and the retentions begin. But that’s up to you!
ND (duh)
AR
IN
WI
CO
PA
WV
IL
KY
WA
CA
AK
NH
CT
MO
NC
FL
DE
LA
NY (KG)
OH
HI
OR
GA
AZ
VT
IA
NY (CS)
OK
KS
UT
AL
ID
SC
SD
certain change
ND
AR
IN
likely change
PA
WI
WV
possible change
CO
IL
NV
KY
WA
AK
CA
MO
Miracle change
NH
NC
FL
LA
CT
rest are safe
1. North Dakota
2. Arkansas
3. Indiana
4. Wisconsin
5. West Virginia
6. Pennsylvania
7. Colorado
8. Nevada
9. Illinois
10. Washington
11. California
To be honest, I’m not quite sure what the cutoff point will be. Best-case scenario for the Dems would be only losing the first four, but right now, I’m thinking the first eight will fall, and Illinois is teetering on the edge, dependent on Chicago turnout. No Republican seat will flip; Kentucky and New Hampshire are the only ones that have any chance of being upsets at this point, with Alaska looking more like a Murkowski/Miller dogfight than anything.
——————————– 8 Flips: 3 Definite, 2 Probable, 3 Barely
North Dakota
Arkansas
Indiana
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Colorado
West Virginia
California (Going out on a limb here)
——————————– Retention Below This Line
Nevada
Washington
Illinois (This is so low down because of the large Dem proportion of undecideds)
Kentucky
Louisiana
New Hampshire
Florida
Alaska (I’ll consider Murkowski a GOP win for the purposes of this)
Missouri
North Carolina
Arizona
Connecticut
Ohio
Georgia
Maryland
New York, Gillibrand
Iowa
Oregon
Delaware
Kansas
South Carolina
Alabama
Idaho
Oklahoma
Vermont
Utah
New York, Schumer
Hawaii
South Dakota
There’s still a good hope IMO that Dems continue to close out, nullify most of the so-called ‘enthusiasm gap’, and end up with something similar to a 1982 or 1978 election.
Republican Pickups (+3)
ND
AR
IN
‘Toss-up’ Tilt Republican
KY
WI
AK (although, the Murkowski/Miller pair probably have an 85%+ shot at winning)
MO
‘Toss-up’ Tilt Democrat
PA
CO
IL
NV
WV
Solid Holds:
NH
NC
FL
LA
CT
DE
CA
WA
So, most likely a +4 seat gain to the GOP. Most of the ‘Tilt Democrat’ races favors us in the sense that they’re all states with ‘bad’ opponents (Kirk being the ‘best’ of ’em), where an enthusiasm gap will probably shrink towards election day, and where the general dynamics of the races and states favor us. WI would probably fall under this category, but Feingold has a bigger hill to climb, and there’s a good shot that KY will flip to us too. Personally, I think Manchin will win by double digits.
Forget It
1 North Dakota (Dorgan)
2 Blanche Lincoln (AR)
3 Indiana (Bayh) (Can someone please explain what on earth happened here?)
Tossups
4 Russ Feingold (WI)
5 Michael Bennet (CO)
6 Illinois (Burris)
7 Kentucky (Bunning) (That article in the Atlantic posted in the daily digest the other day is what makes me think Conway may well eck out a win here. It’ll be close though.)
8 Pennsylvania (Specter) (I change my mind on whether we hold this seat almost daily for the last week.)
—Line of Control)
9 Harry Reid (NV) (Ditto, but for the last month.)
10 West Virginia (Goodwin)
Lean Incumbent
11 Patty Murray (WA)
12 Barbara Boxer (CA)
13 Alaska (Murkowski) (Counting Murk and Miller as Repubs)
14 Connecticut (Dodd)
Upset of the Year
15 Missouri (Bond)
16 New Hampshire (Gregg)
17 Florida (LeMieux) (Counting Crist and Meek as Democrats)
18 David Vitter (LA)
19 Richard Burr (NC)
20 Ohio (Voinovich)
Upset of the Decade
21 Kirstin Gillibrand (NY)
22 Delaware (Kaufman)
23 Johnny Isakson (GA)
24 John McCain (AZ)
25 Ron Wyden (OR)
26 Chuck Grassley (IA)
Forget It
27 Kansas (Brownback)
28 Chuck Schumer (NY)
29 Barbara Mikulski (MD)
30 Tom Coburn (OK)
31 Utah (Bennett)
32 Patrick Leahy (VT)
33 Richard Shelby (AL)
34 Mike Crapo (ID)
35 Jim DeMint (SC)
36 John Thune (SD)
certain change
ND-Hoeven
AR-Boozman
IN-Coats
likely change
WI-Johnson
possible change
PA-Toomey
CO-Buck
IL-Kirk
NV-Angle
WV-Raese
Probably not change
WA-Murray
CA-Boxer
KY-Paul
CT-Blumenthal
Miracle change
AK-Murkowski/Miller
MO-Blunt
NH-Ayotte
NC-Burr
FL-Rubio
LA-Vitter
Gone:
ND (Dorgan) – Hoeven
AR (Lincoln) – Boozman
IN (Bayh) – Coats
Tossups Lost:
CO (Bennet) – Buck
IL (Burris) – Kirk
WI (Feingold) – Johnson
Retentions Start:
NV (Reid) – Angle
PA (Specter) – Toomey
WV (Goodwin) – Raese
CA (Boxer) – Fiorina
WA (Murray) – Rossi
KY (Bunning) – Conway
CT (Dodd) – McMahon
MO (Bond) – Carnahan
AK (Murkowski) – McAdams
NH (Gregg) – Hodes
FL (LeMieux) – Crist
NC (Burr) – Marshall
LA (Vitter) – Melancon
DE (Kaufman) – O’Donnell (hahahaha)
OH (Voinovich) – Fisher
GA (Isakson) – Thurmond
Plus predictions on what I think the outcome would be if the election was held TODAY. Democrats on the left, GOP on the right.
1) North Dakota 29-71
2) Arkansas 43-57
3) Indiana 45-55
4) Wisconsin 47-63
5) Pennsylvania 49-51
6) Colorado 49-51
7) Nevada 48(Reid)-47(Angle)-4(NOTB)-1 (Ashjian)
8) Illinois 49-48-3 (Jones)
9) West Virginia 52-48
10) Kentucky 48-52
11) Washington 52.5-47.5
12) California 53.5-46.5
13) Alaska 36(Murk)-34(Miller)-30(McAdams)
14) Missouri 54-46
15) Connecticut 55-45
16) Louisiana 54-46
17) New Hampshire 53-47
18) North Carolina 56-44
19) Florida 42(Rubio)-32(Crist)-26(Meek)
20) Ohio 59-41
1. ND Certain loss. At least Hoeven’s a moderate.
2. AR Near-certain loss.
3. IN Closer than CW expectation, but still GOP win.
4. WI We’re getting our asses kicked in WI this year.
5. IL Green voters in IL-Gov might still sink us here.
6. CO Don’t know what to do with this one. Even tossup.
7. WV RETENTION POINT. Slight Manchin edge here.
8. NV Reid sucks, but his machine doesn’t.
9. PA Sestak will bring Dems home.
10. KY Repeat of 2004: Paul by less than 10,000 votes.
11. CA Dem turnout here looks good.
12. MO Could be a sleeper, but still an R edge.
13. NC Biggest wasted Dem opportunity of the cycle.
14. NH Ayotte is damaged, but Hodes can’t win NH-01.
15. LA Melancon will win the coast & NO but still lose.
16. WA Great Dem turnout here. Rossi can’t win WA.
17. IA Some last minute gains by Conlin, but not enough.
18. FL Yeah, I’m pretty cynical. Meek/Crist double fail.
19. OH Dismal campaign by Fisher in a bad state for us.
20. GA If Martin couldn’t beat Chambliss in 2008….
21. NY-B Gillibrand looking good for an appointee.
22. OR Wyden wouldn’t lose even in 1994.
23. AZ Glassman’s pretty much imploded by now.
Missing: Alaska. No clue what to do with this crazy race.
Not a chance in hell/safer than safe:
AL, HI, ID, KS, MD, NY-A, OK, SC, SD, UT, VT
Likely to switch:
North Dakota
Arkansas
Indiana
Wisconsin
Colorado
Pennsylvania
Possible (but I think less than likely):
Illinois
Nevada
West Virginia
Washington
California
Alaska
Kentucky
Unlikely to switch:
Louisiana
New Hampshire
Florida
North Carolina
Missouri
Connecticut
Delaware
Ohio
Georgia
New York, Gillibrand
Maryland
Oregon
Iowa
Arizona
New York, Schumer
South Carolina
Hawaii
Alabama
Vermont
Kansas
Utah
Idaho
Oklahoma
South Dakota
So I predict a GOP gain of 6 senators
1) ND
2) AR
3) IN
4) WI
———–
5) PA
6) WV
7) KY
8) IL
9) AK
10)CO
11)NV
12)WA
13)CA
14)CT
15)NC
16)NH
17)MO
18)FL
19)OH
20)DE
Net loss 4 seats for D’s
1. North Dakota (R +40)
2. Arkansas (R+19)
3. Indiana (R +17)
4. Wisconsin (R +6)
5. Nevada (R +3)
6. Colorado (R+2.5)
7. Illinois (R+2)
8. Pennsylvania(R+.5)
——turnovers stop
9. West Virginia (D+.5)
10. California (D+2)
11. Washington (D+4)
12. Kentucky (R+5)
13. Missouri (R+8)
14. New Hampshire (R+10)
15. Connecticut (D+12)
16. Lousiana (R +12)
17. North Carolina (R+13)
18. Hawaii (D+15)
19. Ohio (R+18)
Others will be more than 20 points…Alaska will go down to the wire between Miller and Murkowski with McAdams back about 10. In Florida, Rubio will beat Crist by 10 and Meek by 17.
Safe Takeover (>95%)
1. North Dakota
2. Arkansas
3. Indiana
Likely Takeover (80-95%)
NONE
Lean Takeover (60-80%)
4. Wisconsin
Tossup, Edge Takeover (50-60%)
5. Pennsylvania
6. Colorado
Tossup, Edge Retention (40-50%)
7. West Virginia
8. Nevada
9. Illinois
Lean Retention (20-40%)
10. Kentucky
11. Washington
12. California
Likely Retention (5-20%)
13. New Hampshire
14. Connecticut
15. Alaska (Miller or Murkowski)
16. Missouri
17. North Carolina
18. Louisiana
19. Ohio
Safe Retention (<5%)
AL, AZ, DE, FL, GA, HI, IA, ID, KS, MD, NY, NY’, OK, OR, SC, SD, UT, VT (no particular order)
so long, farewell, auf weidersein, goodbye
1: ND (Sen. Hoeven)
2: AR (Sen. Boozman)
3: IN (Sen. Coats… again)
incumbent win (by the slimmest margin)
1: NV (either way, he wont be maj leader)
2: CO (buck just dosent know when to stop talking)
3: AK (mcadams has run a great campaign, but just wont happen this yr)
4: WI (hell pull it out)
5: IL (i think IL is more comfortable w money laundring then lying bout the military)
6: PA (i thought this was gone, but i really think hes gonna pull it off)
incumbent hold (w in 5)
1: WA (always a bridesmaid, mr rossi)
2: KY (i like conway, but i honestly think it was a little bit of a low blow)
3: MO (this one hurts)
4: NH (could the entire nh delegation be female??)
5: FL (my bet is a romney/rubio ticket in 2012)
6: WV (hey may have gotten his money the old fashion way, but not a senate seat)
clear incumbent wins
1: NC (seems the cursed seat is over)
2: LA (i guess true blood really is an accurate representation of the sexual practices in LA)
3: OH (i wanted brunner from the begining)
4: CT (this race if over hyped)
5: DE (thought i may get turned into newt…)
FYI, next week, I’ll be posting full, final projections, with voter models and calculations. So, if you’re surprised by stuff on this list, wait a few days and it’ll all be explained…
1. North Dakota
2. Arkansas
3. Indiana
4. Wisconsin
5. Nevada
6. Pennsylvania
7. Colorado
(FLIP)
————–
8. California
9. Kentucky
10. West Virginia
11. Washington
12. Illinois
13. Louisiana
14. North Carolina
15. Connecticut
16. Alaska
17. Missouri
18. Florida
19. New Hampshire
20. Oregon
21. New York (B)
22. Delaware
23. Ohio
24. Arizona
25. Iowa
26. New York (A)
27. Georgia
28. Maryland
29. Oklahoma
30. Utah
31. Vermont
32. South Carolina
33. Alabama
34. Kansas
35. Idaho
36. South Dakota
(NO FLIP)
Certain to flip:
ND
AR
IN
Possibly to flip:
WI
CO
KY
I say unlikely to flip:
WV
PA
NV
WA
IL
Won’t flip:
NC
MO
CA
FL
AK: one of the Repugs. will win
OH
All others off the radar screen completely
Worst case for (D)= minus 5
Best case for (D)= minus 2
1. North Dakota
2. Indiana
3. Arkansas
4. Wisconsin
5. Illinois
6. Pennsylvania
7. Colorado
—————–
8. West Virginia
9. Nevada
10. California
11. Kentucky
12. Washington
13. Alaska
14. Missouri
15. New Hampshire
16. Florida
17. Louisiana
18. North Carolina
19. Connecticut
20. Ohio
21-35. Order them how you want they aren’t changing.
Republicans pick up 7-8 seats, picking up 2-3 of Pennsylvania, Colorado, Weste Virgina and Nevada.
ND
AR
IN
WV
WI
CO
PA
IL
CA
AK
KY
WA
NH
MO
CT
NC
LA
NY (Gillibrand)
DE
HI
OH
FL
OR
IA
GA
AZ
VT
NY (Schumer)
OK
KS
UT
AL
ID
SC
SD
Certain change (D) seats:
ND
IN
AR
Possible change (D) seats:
WI
CO
Unlikely change (D) seats:
IL
PA
NV
CA
WA
WV
All other (D) seats need not be mentioned as they are SAFE
Possible change (R) seats:
KY
Unlikey change (R) seats but you never know:
MO
NC
LA
NH
All other (R) seats need not be mentioned as they are SAFE
Predicted percent vote total excluding 3rd party candidates
Flippers:
1. North Dakota: 74-26 R
2. Arkansas: 58-42 R
3. Indiana: 60-40 R
4. Wisconsin: 56-44 R
5. Colorado: 52- 48 R
6. Illinois: 51-49 R
Keepers:
7. Nevada: 49-47 D (Including NOTB)
8. Pennsylvania: 50.1-49.9 D
9. Washington: 52- 48 D
10. West Virginia: 54-46 D
11. Kentucky: 52-48 R
12. California: 54- 46 D
13. Alaska: Murkowski: 38 Miller: 35 McAdams: 27
14. Missouri: 53-47 R
15. New Hampshire: 57-43 R
16. Connecticut: 57-43 D
17. Florida: Rubio: 45 Crist: 34 Meek: 26
18. North Carolina: 58-42 R
19. Louisiana: 60- 40 R
20. Ohio: 61-39 R
Near-locks:
1. ND
2. AR
3. IN
If I had to bet, I would bet on these flipping:
4. WI
5. CO
6. PA
If I had to bet, I would bet on these not flipping:
7. IL
8. WV
9. KY
10. AK if you count Murkowski as a Republican
Most of these are competitive and some will be close but I would be surprised if any of them flip:
11. NV
12. WA
13. CA
14. MO
15. FL
16. CT
17. NH
18. LA
19. NC
20. OH
Below this point it doesn’t matter, as these seats will not flip under any circumstances. I just cut and pasted this from Nico’s post:
21 Kirstin Gillibrand (NY)
22 Delaware (Kaufman)
23 Johnny Isakson (GA)
24 John McCain (AZ)
25 Ron Wyden (OR)
26 Chuck Grassley (IA)
Forget It
27 Kansas (Brownback)
28 Chuck Schumer (NY)
29 Barbara Mikulski (MD)
30 Tom Coburn (OK)
31 Utah (Bennett)
32 Patrick Leahy (VT)
33 Richard Shelby (AL)
34 Mike Crapo (ID)
35 Jim DeMint (SC)
36 John Thune (SD)
A good reason to feel good about Conway’s chances is that the last two US Senate races in Kentucky (2004 and 2008) were both close, with Republican incumbents almost losing to little known Democratic challengers. This year, the seat is open, and the Dem candidate is well known. In fact, he’s a statewide official that has already been voted into office by the voters of KY. A strange change is that the Republican challenger for the open seat (Paul) is roughly the same as the Dem challengers in 04 and 08 were: relatively unknown statewide and never voted on by all KY voters.
LOSSES:
ND
AR
IN
WI
PA
CO
WV
IL
NV
WA
CA
(I know ya’ll will tell me I’m crazy for saying WA and CA will flip, but I think its looking more likely by the day)
WINS:
KY
CT
MO
DE
NH
AK
NC
OH
LA
FL
IA
GA
OR
VT
MD
ID
AZ
UT
OK
KS
NY-A
AL
HI
SD
which assumes that Democrats, though polls indicate they aren’t excited about voting, will indeed turn out in usual numbers. Dem numbers on the left, GOP numbers on the right
ND: 34-66% R pickup
AR: 42-58% R pickup
IN: 44-56% R pickup
KY: 50.5-49.5% D pickup
those are the only four I see flipping, so call me the only guy around who sees only a net 2 seat loss for Senate Democrats, still leaving us with 57-43 control of the Senate. After that:
WI: 51-49% D hold
CO: 52-48% D hold
PA: 52-48% D hold
NV: 48-43-9% D hold
IL: 51-46-3% D hold
MO: 47-53% R hold
WV: 54-46% D hold
WA: 54-46% D hold
AK: 39-35-26% R hold, D in 2nd, Murkowski 3rd.
NH: 45-55% R hold
FL: 40-30-30% R hold, D and Crist tie.
LA: 45-55% R hold
CA: 56-44% D hold
NC: 44-56% R hold
OH: 44-56% R hold
CT: 57-43% D hold
DE: 63-37% D hold
Here we go:
(Starting with the goners…)
North Dakota (D -> R)
Arkansas (D -> R)
Indiana (D -> R)
Kentucky (R -> D)
Wisconsin (D -> R)
Alaska (R-> R/I)
(The flips stop here…)
Pennsylvania (D hold)
Colorado (D hold)
Illinois (D hold)
West Virginia (D hold)
Nevada (D hold)
Missouri (R hold)
Washington (D hold)
New Hampshire (R hold)
Louisiana (R hold)
California (D hold)
Connecticut (D hold)
Florida (R hold)
North Carolina (R hold)
Ohio (R hold)
(After here, the races aren’t remotely close. New York and Delaware should both be double digit D blowouts…)
Okay, without looking at anyone else’s:
ND
AK
IN
WI
PN
WV
IL
CO
NV
CA
Cutoff
WA
KY
MO
CT
LA
NH
NC
AK (I’m counting Miller and Mirkouski both as a hold)
DE
NY-B
FL
OH
IA
HI (Only if he died)
OR
GA
KS
OK
MD
VT
AZ
NY-A
UT
AL
ID
SC
SD
think Fiorina will win in California, while all other posters have California below the cutoff line. Interesting. MassGOP, what say you?
ND- Bye.
AR- This one might end up closer than people think. Still a certain loss.
IN- I have no clue what happened here.
PA- Sestak will run out of time.
WI- I hate to say it, but it looks bad for Feingold.
CO- Hard to get a hold on this one, but things slightly favor Buck.
KY- Pure tossup. The optimist in me says Conway will make it.
CUTOFF
IL- Dems will come home and (barely) save Alexi.
NV- What a stinker.
WV- Manchin’s whiplash to the right will pull him to a win.
CA- I don’t see Fiorina doing it.
WA- Rossi is the wrong candidate for this cycle.
NH- No post-primary fallout means Ayotte pulls through.
FL- Oh, how things change.
CT- McMahon had her chance.
MO- Another one that my surprise people, but Carnahan would need a small miracle.
LA- In any other year…
AK- Counting Miller & Murk both as R’s.
NC- In any other year…
OH- Fisher has been bad, but I’m not sure any Dem could’ve done this one.
NY(B)- Gillibrand will be fine.
IA- Another victim of the bad cycle.
AZ- Hayworth had to go and lose.
DE- lol.
All others are rock solid.
I’m predicting these seats will flip:
ND
AR
IN
WI
CO
And I’ll say one of the following will flip:
PA
WV
IL
I will predict the rest of the seats will not flip – ergo, Democratic retention in CA and WA (I give Fiorina and Rossi about a 30% chance of victory, not sufficient to believe one of them will win). Of course, I hope KY flips, but previous experience with close wins for Bunning and McConnell militate against an outright prediction of a Democratic win.
So, I’m somewhat optimistically predicting the Republicans will win a net of 6 seats. It could easily be worse, but it also could conceivably be better. In order of likelihood, I’d predict the possible flips from Republican to Democrat as follows:
KY
MO
AK (though I think Murkowski will win it and count her as a Republican)
NH
NC
FL (counting Crist as a Democrat, which is dubious)
I give Conway about a 40% chance of winning; Carnahan I’ll give a 20% chance to; 12% for McAdams; NH, NC, and FL are quite unlikely (maybe 5% for NH and less for the other two). Note that I consider LA Safe Republican.
certain flips:
ND
AR
IN
tossups, tilt to flip:
WV
CO
tossups, tilt retention:
NH
WI
retention more probable than not:
PA
IL
median outcome: R+5±1
From left to right is most likely to flip to least likely.
Democratic Seats
Safe Republican
ND
Likely Republican
AR, IN
Lean Republican
WI, WV, CO, PA
Just recently Republicans were leading by single digits in all these polls, but now we have polls with Dems in slight leads or tied. For me, though, the WI polls aren’t convincing. I’m not sure if Feingold is really turning things around.
Toss-Up
IL, NV, WA
Polls have always shown only margin of error leads for either side. I’m very worried about IL as Kirk has had that lead for a while. We need a GOTV effort there. There have too many WA polls showing a tied race for me to move that race to lean Dem. Still, I’m hoping that Dems win all these races.
Lean Dem
CA, CT
Likely Dem
DE
I SAY: Republican flip four to seven seats.
———————————————————-
Republican seats
Lean Republican
AK, KY, NH, MO
Miller and Paul are falling apart, but in Red states. I’m not convinced that McAdams and Conway can break through.
Ayotte’s and Blunt’s leads are single digit, but they seem pretty solid.
Likely Republican
LA, FL, OH, NC
Safe Republican
AZ
I SAY: No flips of Republican flips. I see possible flips only in AK and KY, but I’m very doubtful.
1. Hoeven by 37
2. Boozman +18
3. Coats +11
4. Raese +6
5. Johnson +4
6. Toomey +3
7. Kirk +2
H. Paul +1
H. Bennet +3
H. Reid +4
H. Ayotte +5
H. Portman +6
H. Boxer +7
H. Murray +7
H. Miller +8 over Murkowski +6 over Adams
H. Blunt +9
H. Burr +10
H. Vitter +10
Everyone else holds for their party by double digits, including DE and CT.
People know I’ve posted this question before, but how are the offices stacked on the ballot in IL? Is it Quinn on top? Because I think that could hurt Alexi for some reason.
The twelve seats that matter the most…
1. ND
2. AR
3. IN
4. WI
5. PA
6. CO
7. NV
8. IL
9. WV
10. KY
11. WA
12. CA
Best case (realistic) scenario: We lose a net of two (losing ND, AR, and IN while picking up KY, the toss-ups go to the Dems and Feingold somehow holds on).
Worst case: We lose 11 seats (ND, AR, IN, WI, PA, CO, NV, IL, WV, WA and CA). Thankfully, I think there’s an extremely slender chance that this will happen.
FLIP
1. NORTH DAKOTA
2. ARKANSAS
3. INDIANA
4. WISCONSIN
TOSSUP
5. PENNSYLVANIA
6. COLORADO
7. NEVADA
8. WEST VIRGINIA
9. ILLINOIS
LEAN RETAIN
10. CALIFORNIA
11. WASHINGTON
12. KENTUCKY
13. ALASKA
14. FLORIDA
Flips
1. North Dakota
2. Indiana
3. Arkansas
4. Wisconsin
5. Pennsylvania
6. Colorado
7. West Virginia
8. Illinois
9. Nevada
Holds, by less than 5
10. Washington
11. California
13. Kentucky
Holds, by less than 10
14. Alaska (I think Murkowski will win and McAdams will be about 6 back)
15. Missouri
Holds, by less than 20
16. New Hampshire
17. Ohio
18. Florida
19. North Carolina
20. Connecticut
At this point, I think we can expect all other races to be held by 20 or more points.
North Dakota
Arkansas
Indiana
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Colorado
West Virginia
Illinois
Nevada
Washington
California
Connecticut
Delaware
New York
Oregon
Definite Pickups:
North Dakota
Arkansas
Indiana
Wisconsin
Colorado
Nevada
I think this is the flipping threshold.
Possible Pickups:
Pennsylvania
Illinois
West Virginia
Washington
California
Kentucky
Unlikely Pickups:
Alaska
Missouri
Connecticut
Not flipping but were competitive:
North Carolina
Louisiana
New Hampshire
Florida
Ohio
Delaware
My list:
ND
AR
KY
AK
NH
I can see some other seats moving but I think those 5 will all switch.
As I told James at Netroots I will bet a Buffalo Burger on the Dems actually picking up Senate seats. I know I am going against all the pundits, but I still think that worst case is a net neutral and a more likely outcome is picking up seats.
Dems will hold:
DE
CA
WA
PA
CO
IL
WV
I think in the end Dems will also hold:
WI
IN (the one I am most worried about)
Dems will definitely lose:
ND
AR
Dems will pick up the following:
KY
AK
NH
The Dems could also pick up:
MO (it will likely be very close)
NC
OH (the polls are horrible and Fisher doesn’t seem to have the money to close, but the dynamics of the race still make me wonder if a final GOTV push might result in a surprise on election night)
LA
IA (the DFA/PCCC ad is a great closer)
AZ (unlikely, but I am still it might surprise)