SSP Daily Digest: 10/25 (Morning Edition)

  • Site News: Holy moly. We just passed ten million all-time visitors yesterday. Wow. Just really have to take a step back for a moment. When I started this site almost exactly seven years ago, I never, ever imagined we’d achieve anything like this. Just a huge thank you to every reader who has checked in since Oct. 19, 2003 to today – and beyond.
  • AR-Gov (Mason-Dixon): Mike Beebe (D-inc) 59, Jim Keet (R) 26
  • CA-Sen, CA-Gov (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner & American Viewpoint for the LA Times/USC): Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 50, Carly Fiorina (R) 42; Jerry Brown (D) 52, Meg Whitman (R) 39
  • CA-Gov (John McLaughlin & David Hill (R) for Meg Whitman): Jerry Brown (D) 46, Meg Whitman (R) 43
  • CO-Sen, CO-Gov (SurveyUSA for 9News/Denver Post): Michael Bennet (D-inc) 47, Ken Buck (R) 47; John Hickenlooper (D) 46, Dan Maes (R) 15, Tom Tancredo (ACP) 34
  • Bonus: SUSA also tested the state AG, SoS, and Treasurer races.

  • CO-Gov (Magellan): John Hickenlooper (D) 44, Dan Maes (R) 9, Tom Tancredo (ACP) 43
  • FL-Sen, FL-Gov (Ipsos for Florida media): Kendrick Meek (D) 20, Marco Rubio (R) 41, Charlie Crist (I) 26; Alex Sink (D) 41, Rick Scott (R) 44
  • Bonus: Ipsos also tested the AG, Ag Comm’r, and CFO races.

  • FL-Gov (Susquehanna for Sunshine State News): Alex Sink (D) 45, Rick Scott (R) 45
  • IL-Sen, IL-Gov (Mason-Dixon for St. Louis Post-Dispatch/KMOV-TV): Pat Quinn (D-inc) 40, Bill Brady (R) 44; Alexi Giannoulias (D) 41, Mark Kirk (R) 43
  • Note: The poll apparently asked respondents about “Alex Giannoulias.”

  • IL-Sen (Market Shares Corp. for the Chicago Tribune): Alexi Giannoulias (D) 41, Mark Kirk (R) 44
  • LA-Sen (Anzalone-Liszt (D) for Charlie Melancon): Charlie Melancon (D) 45, David Vitter (R-inc) 48
  • MA-Gov (Western New England College): Deval Patrick (D-inc) 44, Charlie Baker (R) 36, Tim Cahill (I) 8
  • MA-Gov (UNH): Deval Patrick (D-inc) 43, Charlie Baker (R) 39, Tim Cahill (I) 8
  • MD-Gov (OpinionWorks for the Baltimore Sun): Martin O’Malley (D-inc) 52, Bob Ehrlich (R) 38
  • ME-Gov (Critical Insights): Libby Mitchell (D) 20, Paul LePage (R) 32, Eliot Cutler 19
  • MN-Gov (Princeton Survey Research for the Minneapolis Star-Tribune): Mark Dayton (D) 41, Tom Emmer (R) 34, Tom Horner (I) 13
  • MO-Sen (Mason-Dixon for St. Louis Post-Dispatch/KMOV-TV): Robin Carnahan (D) 40, Roy Blunt (R) 49
  • NY-Gov (Marist): Andrew Cuomo (D) 60, Carl Paladino (R) 37
  • PA-Gov (Quinnipiac): Dan Onorato (D) 44, Tom Corbett (R) 49
  • WV-Sen (Global Strategy Group (D) for Joe Manchin): Joe Manchin (D) 48, John Raese (R) 43
  • Margins & Errors: On Sunday, Pat Toomey moved out to a 3-point lead in the Muhlenberg tracker, while Tom Corbett is +9… some sketchy details of IN-02 internals from Brian Howey: “Howard County Republican Chairman Craig Dunn said internal polling has shown Walorski chipping a 9-point Donnelly lead to “at the margin of error” around 4 percent.” … CNN sources tell them that Harry Reid’s internals have him up 6 over Sharron Angle in NV-Sen… PPP will have polls out for CA, CO, KY & WV this week

    229 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 10/25 (Morning Edition)”

    1. the NRSC is confident in its polling — they’re investing another $3 million in California. I’m somewhat surprised, given public polling shows Boxer with a consistent lead, and PPP’s tweets are less than sunny for Fiorina. Plus that money could go a lot further in, say, Colorado or West Virginia.

      I’m looking forward to seeing the actual ad. This is going to look like either a brilliant move or a massive waste on Nov. 3.  

    2. already discussed one way or another here. I hope we will get something new tomorrow or Wednesday…. But generally i can’t remember a year with so much so wildly different polls

    3. The battle between Democrat Tom White and Republican Lee Terry in the Omaha-based 2nd Congressional District remains competitive, with The World-Herald Poll showing that Terry has an edge but not an insurmountable lead.

      Forty-four percent of registered voters said they would vote for Terry, while 39 percent chose White.

      However, Terry’s lead grew to 8 percentage points among more committed voters – those who said they had already voted or definitely planned to vote.

    4. Ralston on yesterday’s early voting

      The Republicans barely ticked up Sunday in turnout percentage after a weak showing in Washoe County and a slight advantage in Clark – the GOP now leads by 2.2 percent in the total urban vote. […]

      Total Clark early voting percentages relative to registration:

      Democrats: 19.0 percent

      Republicans: 21.2 percent

      Total Clark with mail ballots added (no mail counted Sunday):

      Democrats: 22.1 percent

      Republicans: 24.9 percent

      Total urban early vote:

      Democrats: 78,717 (18.7 percent)

      Republicans: 69,081 (20.9 percent)

      Total urban early vote (including absentees in Clark):

      Democrats: 89,391 (21.2 percent)

      Republicans: 77,908 (23.5 percent)

      For numbers geeks:


      Sunday: Dems, 6,908 Rs, 5,651 rest, 2,480

      Early: Dems, 63,632; Rs, 51,800 rest, 21,623

      Mail: Dems, 10,674; Rs, 8,827 rest, 2,822

      Combined: Dems, 74,306, Rs, 60,627 rest, 24,445


      Ds: 15,085 (17.5 percent)

      Rs: 17,281 (19.9 percent)

    5. GOP cheerleading going to get in the next week or so? I love talking about the polls, but I am getting really sick of the rah-rah comments about how great these GOP candidates are or touting GOP polls like they have anything to do with reality. If I wanted to read that nonsense, I’d spend time at the mainstream media sites.  

    6. Zogby went into FL for the Naples Daily News.  I have a very low opinion of this pollster, so take these numbers for what you want.


      Rubio 40 (39)

      Crist 33 (33)

      Meek 18  (18)


      Sink 43 (41)

      Scott 39 (39)

      The Sen numbers seem a bit off to me – to little for Meek and a bit too much for Crist.  Gov numbers have been all over the map, Scott up, Sink up, neither by much.  Both of these polls show a remarkable amount of stability and that just doesn’t seem right in the Senate race to me.  I could believe it in the Gov race, but who knows.  Clearly, he didn’t push leaners very hard.

    7. I really thought Brown was going to lose earlier this year, ala Coakley-style. But he keeps impressing me. I think its really likely Brown is headed for a win, based on gut instinct and the fact that everyone (Dems, GOP, and Indies) are tired of seeing eMeg’s face every single day, 3 times a day or even more so. Anyone else agree?

    8. Frank Caprio didn’t get Barack Obama’s endorsement and then went ballistic:

      Frank Caprio’s campaign last week said he would welcome the president’s endorsement. But on Monday, the same day Obama was set to make his first visit to Rhode Island as president and a day after the White House said Obama would not endorse anyone, Caprio angrily told WPRO-AM that Obama can “take his endorsement and really shove it.”

      Caprio is a horrible representative of the Democratic Party and even cavorted with the RNC:

      “What I’m saying to President Obama very clearly is, I’ll wear as a badge of honor and a badge of courage that he doesn’t want to endorse me as a Democrat, because I am a different kind of Democrat,” he told the station.

      Caprio has rubbed some liberal voters the wrong way by meeting with the National Republican Committee in Washington this year, at a time when he faced a potentially bruising Democratic primary, for reasons he has yet to fully explain.

      It’s good to find out about Caprio before the election.  Here’s hoping for Lincoln Chafee to kick his ass.

    9. I just don’t understand why GOP’ers think it’s a good idea to put foul smelling stuff in peoples mailbox?


      Much like magazine perfume advertisements, the mailer says, “Open for a fragrance sample of “Loretta, The Scent Of Washington.”

      On the inside of mailer, the piece says, “Something smells rotten about Loretta. It’s the stench of Washington.” Below that is the scratch and sniff panel.

      A GOP source who experienced the Eau de Sanchez put it this way: “It is a horrible odor, like the combination of the five or six worst possible scents you can imagine.”

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