Hoosierdem’s Senate Predicts

18 thoughts on “Hoosierdem’s Senate Predicts”

1. I keep saying 6 or 7, but, honestly, it’s pretty unlikely that several polls are wrong. Realistically, we may keep, say, NV or CO.

   True, the number of seats that could go either way is quite large – about 6 – so, yes, we COULD potentially keep losses at just 4 or 5. But it would be fairly unprecedented for that many races to depart from the polling averages.

   And though I think Murray will win, it looks like it’s going to be very, very tight. Tight enough that Rossi actually could win. According to Ed Henry at CNN, a lot of national Dems are genuinely worried about that possibility (which is what prompted the overtures to Meek to drop out).

   …all the jockeying and horse-trading is really just a sideshow. The real story is how bad the broader electoral map has gotten for Democrats heading into the final weekend of this midterm election: Top Democratic officials privately say they believe they are going to lose the House, but as they survey the country they are getting increasingly worried they will also lose the Senate.

   These Democratic officials tell me they’ve reviewed private polling numbers that suggest Sen. Patty Murray of Washington has a razor-thin lead of about two points over Republican Dino Rossi despite all kinds of help from the president and first lady Michelle Obama, among others.

   They’re also deeply worried about whether Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada can beat Republican Sharron Angle, so suddenly the “firewall” out West to keep control of the Senate might be more like a crumbling brick wall.

   These Democratic officials also say in private that they think Sen. Russ Feingold of Wisconsin is likely to lose to Republican Ron Johnson and they’re worried enough about Obama’s old Senate seat that the president is heading home to Chicago, Illinois, on Saturday night for a rescue mission to again help Democratic candidate Alexi Giannoulias in his battle with Republican Mark Kirk.

   I still don’t quite see a takeover – I think both Manchin and Murray are more likely than not to win, but it’s a little frightening.

   I also wouldn’t be shocked if, say, Reid and Bennet do lose but, say, Giannoulias or Sestak wins.
   

2. Especially Colorado. That race is starting to remind me of MT, VA, and MO in 2006 and MN from last year–a pure tossup that eventually goes to the party having the good night nationwide.  

4. Prediction seems depressingly plausible.

   I chose that Dems would lose 7 seats in the poll, betting that they’ll claw in either IL or CO still without losing WA or WV – and it seems that puts me at the optimistic end of the poll. Who would have thought.

   That picture of the Oklahoma Dem on Wikipedia is indeed funny.  Didnt raise any money (like, none) either. Good for him for standing though, and good to know that there’s about a quarter of the electorate who will really vote against Coburn come hell or fire..

5. For now. I may make changes by Monday night though.

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