Egg on the Face? My Final House Predictions

Here we go.  FL-12 not included due to three-way confusion.

Comment and tell me what you think if you read it.

Safe Takeover:

LA-3: Jeff Landry  I’m not sure when a Democrat will hold this district again

NY-29: Tom Reed  We’re not even trying here, but it’s better we don’t.  Need about 3 upstate GOPers in order to have safe map for incumbent Dems.  Right now just Lee and Reed exist.

TN-6: Diane Black  Another district that won’t be Dem for a very long time.  Getting more suburban every decade.

59-41 districts:

MI-11: Thad McCotter  Very conservative in a swing district, but wrong year and not a strong challenger.  I wonder how Michigan redistricting will look.  We need PVI in Dave’s App for it.

DE-AL: John Carney This one’s easy.  Thanks for the crazies, Delaware!

LA-2: Cedric Richmond Also easy, Cao couldn’t win in ANY year.  I really hope Richmond’s primaried out by someone in 2012, however.  I don’t like him at all.  

IN-7: Andre Carson  Trending blue by the year.

NY-2: Steve Israel  Put up ads early, kept wave from getting to him

NC-13: Brad Miller  Definition of backbencher, but he’s a good Dem

OK-2: Dan Boren  Just because of the year.  Still an asshole, though

WA-6: Norm Dicks  I have heard he’s corrupt, let’s not have him chair appropriations? Kthx 🙂

58-42 Districts:

CA-45: Mary Bono Mack  Right candidate, wrong year.  Looks to me like Prop 20 would give Bono Mack a safer district by taking out Moreno Valley and putting it in an open R seat.  That’s my take, anyway.  Would also add Beaumont, San Jacinto, and some High Desert area from San Bernardino County.  Too bad.

NE-2:  Lee Terry  He’s a complete ass that nobody likes, but it’s also the wrong year.  I really wish we’d gotten him in 2008.

OH-13: Betty Sutton  Looked competitive until Ganley was discovered to be rapist

UT-2: Jim Matheson  I wonder if GOP will try and get rid of him next year or give him safer Salt Lake district?

NY-4: Carolyn McCarthy  Kinda wish she’d been chosen for Senate instead of Gillibrand.  Gillibrand’s too much of a flip-flopper.

RI-1: David Cicciline  I don’t buy that this is competitive when 2/3 of voters will go for a Dem or a Chafee.

ME-2: Mike Michaud  Meet Maine’s next Senator.

ID-1: Walt Minnick  Wow!

PA-4: Jason Altmire Perfect fit for his district

MO-5: Emmanuel Cleaver  Same here.

57-43 Districts:

AR-2: Tim Griffin He’ll be here as long as he wants.  Elliott didn’t have a chance.

KY-3: John Yarmuth  Loved by district despite liberalism

NY-25: Dan Maffei  One of safest freshmen from ’08.  Future Senator replacement for Schumer?

OR-1: David Wu  Will be one of two mainland Asians left in Congress, I believe.

MA-4: Barney Frank  This is NOT Lean D.  Sorry, Charlie.

PA-15: Charlie Dent  How did Pat Toomey hold this seat?

CO-7: Ed Perlmutter  I just don’t think Perlmutter is as vulnerable as people say.

NM-3: Ben Lujan  Neither is Lujan.  The Hispanics here turn out.

CA-44: Ken Calvert  District will be pure toss-up post Prop 20.  Please, can we get rid of him then?  BTW, this is all based on a Prop 20 map I drew.

IL-8: Melissa Bean  Lucked out with joke of a challenger.  Life’s been good to her soooo far!

NY-22: Maurice Hinchey  He’s not in danger, but I think this is his last relection.  Saves having to combine two congresspeoples’ districts, and this is the weirdest-shaped upstate one anyway.  

NJ-6: Bill Pascrell  I really know nothing about this guy.

PA-17: Tim Holden  He’ll be holden on to this seat for two more years, we’ll see about redistricting

TN-5: Jim Cooper  Everyone says he’s not a fit for the district, but it’s no more than D+5.  Nashville’s not Memphis.

56-44 Districts:

NJ-12: Rush Holt  It’s amazing two people named Rush are prominent in politics, but they couldn’t be more different

TX-something: Ruben Hinojosa  Also know nothing about this guy

MI-3: Justin Amash  Too conservative for district, but wrong year

AZ-8: Gabby Giffords  I really like her, but can she beat Kyl in 2012?

MO-3: Russ Carnahan  Carnahans, they’re everywhere! RedState has some BS about how he’s anti-Catholic

CA-20: Jim Costa  Hispanics turn out at low rates, but Costa’s very moderate

WV-3: Nick Rahall  Incredibly racist anti-Rahall ads

FL-2: Allen Boyd Dead man walking.  Wasn’t bad at all for a rural Southern Democrat.  Will be missed.

GA-2: Sanford Bishop  Too many Blacks in district for Keown.

IA-3: Leonard Boswell Amazing recovery, but he’s retiring in two years, I bet.  Good way to go out.

OH-12: Pat Tiberi  I always thought this guy was a moderate, but I checked DW-Nominate and he’s nothing of the sort.

NC-2: Bob Etheridge  Yes, ElectionProjection, of COURSE he’ll lose.  

NC-4: David Price  Why is he vulnerable?  He’s a Kanjo waiting to happen.  Retire next cycle, please.

IN-8: Larry Bucshon Generic R vs. Generic D in this district? What do you think?

OR-4: Peter DeFazio  Art Robinson? HA

TX-something: Henry Cuellar  Another anonymous Hispanic Texas Dem, along with Hinojosa, Ortiz.

MN-1: Tim Walz  Guy’s entrenched himself well, coming after a real conservative guy in Gutknecht

IA-2: Dave Loebsack  Smart, progressive guy

55-45 districts: MI-9: Gary Peters  Rocky is Tea Party member in suburban district.  I don’t think so.

NC-11: Heath Shuler  Heath, you will NEVER be speaker.  Sorry.

TX-17: Bill Flores  He almost lost in 2008, kind of.  This is the end, Chet.  Too bad.

WA-9: Adam Smith  Who would’ve thought the guy who invented laissez-faire was a Democrat?

FL-24: Sandy Adams Kosmas wouldn’t have won if Feeney wasn’t corrupt

NY-21: Paul Tonko  Albany area trending away from Dems, slowly.

AZ-7: Raul Grijalva  Boycotting your own state?  I’d primary him if I lived there.  Also, the whole killing HCR thing was a dick move (do they use this expression in other places?)

CA-3: Dan Lungren  Just the wrong year.  He’s dead in 2012 if Bera runs again and Obama’s semi-popular.  

ME-1: Chellie Pingree  She’s really weak for a blue district.  Don’t let her run for Senate.

TX-something: Solomon Ortiz  See above

PA-6: Jim Gerlach  He’s been lucky

IA-1: Bruce Braley  AAF can’t get rid of him

CT-4: Jim Himes  Strong Freshman

OH-1: Steve Chabot  Dreihaus needed Obama and AA turnout

KS-3: Kevin Yoder  Dennis Moore: Time for a new generation of leadership.  My wife’s gonna run to replace me.  I call bullshit on him.

IL-11: Adam Kinzinger He’s a really strong candidate.  Let’s see how he votes, and if he’s eyeing a promotion.

IN-2: Joe Donnelly  Donnelly might be in his last term next year.

NY-1: Tim Bishop  Very popular

54-46 Districts:

WI-7: Sean Duffy Open seats are really tough to defend.

MA-6: John Tierney  Tierney’s actually more liberal than most of his delegation despite more blue-collar district.  Oh yeah, and his wife…

AZ-5: Harry Mitchell  He’s to Tempe what LeBron is to…oh wait…

ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy  Hoeven, environment, cap and trade, etc.  Not looking good for Earl.

NC-7: Mike McIntyre  His candidate should be in jail, in a cell with Rick Scott and Allen West.

CA-47: Loretta Sanchez  What’s with Sanchezes and racial/ethnic gaffes/bigotry?

TN-4: Lincoln Davis  This one might be closer than I predict.  Wouldn’t be surprised if he loses.  

VA-9: Rick Boucher  I WOULD be surprised here

CO-4: Cory Gardner  Buck will do well here, and Gardner’s Generic R.

TN-8: Stephen Fincher  Tennessee’s a bloodbath this year

MN-6: Michelle Bachmann  I say keep her in the House and get rid of Kline.

AR-1: Rick Crawford  Historically Dem Mississippi River districts not looking so hot this year

PA-3: Mike Kelly  Why isn’t this race closer?

IL-10: Dan Seals  Here’s a pickup by our side.  How liberal is Seals?  I heard he was a Blue Dog, I think?

NY-13: Mike McMahon  Asshole, but he’s our asshole.

OH-15: Steve Stivers  Kilroy is a very weak candidate

FL-8: Dan Webster  Grayson should look up “asshole” in Webster’s dictionary; he’ll see his picture there

KY-6: Ben Chandler  Raise your hand if you knew he was the son of an MLB commish

NY-24: Mike Arcuri  This one’s a shocker

53-47 Races:

OH-10: Dennis Kucinich  He’s just weird…

SC-5: Mick Mulvaney  Not huge loss as he’d be gone in two years anyway, either from redistricting or retirement.

AZ-3: Ben Quayle  What an ass.

IL-17: Bobby Schilling  He’s a one-termer if I every saw one.

WA-2: Rick Larsen  District’s more conservative than you’d think, Murray could lose it narrowly.

VA-11: Gerry Connolly  Getting a bit worried about this one…

NY-19: Nan Hayworth  Who wouldn’t vote for a rogue ophthamologist named Nan?

MS-1: Alan Nunnellee  Fear the mustache

NM-1: Martin Heinrich  New Mexico’s next Senator

CA-18: Dennis Cardoza  Water issues are very key here

HI-1: Colleen Hanabusa Expected it to be bigger margin

VA-2: Scott Rigell Nye’s disappointed netroots

WI-8: Reid Ribble  Great name, but Kagen was great congressman

NJ-3: Jon Runyan  I’m surprised, but I think he’ll win

52-48 margins:

FL-25: David Rivera  Will he become entrenched fast enough?

WI-3: Ron Kind  RedState’s been touting this one for months.  Another “next senator”

AL-2: Bobby Bright  Good fit for district

OH-16: Jim Renacci Boccieri can play with his newborn instead

MD-1: Andy Harris  People don’t like him, but he’s the Republican

PA-12: Mark Critz  Will be eliminated in two years

FL-22: Ron Klein  In the end, West’s just plain crazy.  This one may be more based on hope than gut.

NM-2: Steve Pearce  Watch him try and run for senate in 2012

NH-1: Frank Guinta  Corrupt.  We can get him next cycle.

IL-12: Jerry Costello  I don’t care how weak the opponent is.  Downstate Illinois is hell this year.

CA-11: Jerry McNerney  Harmer’s against public education.

NC-8: Larry Kissell  I have no clue how to rate this one, little polling

PA-7: Pat Meehan  Only cuz of the cycle

MO-4: Ike Skelton  Retiring in two years, but won’t go out a loser

WA-8: Dave Reichert  I think health could force retirement soon as well.  Hope for a recovery

MS-4: Steven Palazzo  Gene’s in an insanely tough district and year.  Could a Brett Favre campaign visit this weekend help?  He’s injured, right?

51-49 districts:

NY-20: Guy running against Scott Murphy  I honestly forget his name, but this gives GOP the third district upstate to make a safe 24-4 D map.

OR-5: Scott Bruun  Is it pronounced Scott Brown?

OH-6: Charlie Wilson  What’s with the domestic abuse thing?

OH-18: Zack Space  SEIU are idiots

GA-8: Austin Scott Sorry, RuralDem.  We’ll see who’s right, and I’ll admit it if I’m not.

VA-5: Rob Hurt  Perriello closer than Nye would make me happy

MA-10: Bill Keating   How’s Perry still in this?

CO-3: John Salazar  Popular

NY-23: Bill Owens  Hoffman saved him

IL-14: Randy Hultgren  It’s the environment

IN-9: Baron Hill  HoosierDem will be happy

TX-23: Ciro Rodriguez  I heard he’s winning.

MI-7: Mark Schauer  Walberg is flawed

MN-8: Jim Oberstar  I agree with Mark, I could see him losing

PA-8: Mike Fitzpatrick  Would instantly be most moderate GOPer

NH-2: Charlie Bass  He’s really not moderate, if you look at the record

50-50 races

WV-1: David McKinley I say R pickup either way, Oliverio’s not staying if R’s take House

AZ-1: Ann Kirkpatrick  Optimistic about Navajo

SD-AL: Kristi Noem  Driving record almost brings her down

MI-1: Dan Benishek A new Dr. Dan

NV-3: Joe Heck  Just switched this one today.  

PA-10: Tom Marino  How is he winning?

PA-11: Paul Kanjorski  How is HE winning?  Remember when we all “knew” Kanjo would lose, Carney would win?

I literally have Speaker Boehner by one seat…wow.

7 thoughts on “Egg on the Face? My Final House Predictions”

  1. NY-29: Tom Reed  We’re not even trying here, but it’s better we don’t.  Need about 3 upstate GOPers in order to have safe map for incumbent Dems.  Right now just Lee and Reed exist.

    I think we need 2 upstate R districts, and one NY R district [Kings] to make the others safe D.

    The problem is that CD29 is in the wrong spot to make the other districts, if all won by Ds, safe.  The district maps are just too convoluted.

    Ive worked at the problem some, and I feel that a 2nd safe D district, based in eastern Monroe county, based on the D portions of CD29 and CD25 would be the easiest solution.  

    Any reasonable looking D gerrymander of upstate eliminates CD24, with its population parcelled out to the neighboring districts.

    If NY loses 2 seats instead of 1, CD19 just disappears by the time you work northward, with, again 2 upstate R districts.

    The 2nd R district would be centered on Oneida, taking in the north central R counties from CD20 and CD23.  Even at that, CD20, comprising the Hudson River counties, would be at Obama 55.

  2. Where’s NM-01? I hope you don’t think that Heinrich is less vulnerable than Lujan is.

    As for Steve Pearce, I hope that idiot tries to run statewide again, it’ll be a pleasure stomping his ass by a double digit margin again.

  3. cause I think we can win all the 50-50 seats you have going to the GOP as well as all the 51-49 ones minus maybe Marshall simply because any gap in turnout will be felt hardest in the reddest districts and I think they wanted to get rid of him in 2006 and would have if dems had not been motivated. Also think we can hold NM-02 and OH-16. Also think the GOP is overestamted in IL-17. I think we can hold the house but it’s also possible that several of the dem seats you mentioned could fall and make up the difference. I think the seats I mentioned above along with the Dem holds mentioned in the post that have a less then 52-48 margin will be the firewall for determining who wins control. Either way though I don’t expect either party to have a +10 seat majority.

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