Here we go. FL-12 not included due to three-way confusion.
Comment and tell me what you think if you read it.
LA-3: Jeff Landry I’m not sure when a Democrat will hold this district again
NY-29: Tom Reed We’re not even trying here, but it’s better we don’t. Need about 3 upstate GOPers in order to have safe map for incumbent Dems. Right now just Lee and Reed exist.
TN-6: Diane Black Another district that won’t be Dem for a very long time. Getting more suburban every decade.
MI-11: Thad McCotter Very conservative in a swing district, but wrong year and not a strong challenger. I wonder how Michigan redistricting will look. We need PVI in Dave’s App for it.
DE-AL: John Carney This one’s easy. Thanks for the crazies, Delaware!
LA-2: Cedric Richmond Also easy, Cao couldn’t win in ANY year. I really hope Richmond’s primaried out by someone in 2012, however. I don’t like him at all.
IN-7: Andre Carson Trending blue by the year.
NY-2: Steve Israel Put up ads early, kept wave from getting to him
NC-13: Brad Miller Definition of backbencher, but he’s a good Dem
OK-2: Dan Boren Just because of the year. Still an asshole, though
WA-6: Norm Dicks I have heard he’s corrupt, let’s not have him chair appropriations? Kthx 🙂
CA-45: Mary Bono Mack Right candidate, wrong year. Looks to me like Prop 20 would give Bono Mack a safer district by taking out Moreno Valley and putting it in an open R seat. That’s my take, anyway. Would also add Beaumont, San Jacinto, and some High Desert area from San Bernardino County. Too bad.
NE-2: Lee Terry He’s a complete ass that nobody likes, but it’s also the wrong year. I really wish we’d gotten him in 2008.
OH-13: Betty Sutton Looked competitive until Ganley was discovered to be rapist
UT-2: Jim Matheson I wonder if GOP will try and get rid of him next year or give him safer Salt Lake district?
NY-4: Carolyn McCarthy Kinda wish she’d been chosen for Senate instead of Gillibrand. Gillibrand’s too much of a flip-flopper.
RI-1: David Cicciline I don’t buy that this is competitive when 2/3 of voters will go for a Dem or a Chafee.
ME-2: Mike Michaud Meet Maine’s next Senator.
ID-1: Walt Minnick Wow!
PA-4: Jason Altmire Perfect fit for his district
MO-5: Emmanuel Cleaver Same here.
AR-2: Tim Griffin He’ll be here as long as he wants. Elliott didn’t have a chance.
KY-3: John Yarmuth Loved by district despite liberalism
NY-25: Dan Maffei One of safest freshmen from ’08. Future Senator replacement for Schumer?
OR-1: David Wu Will be one of two mainland Asians left in Congress, I believe.
MA-4: Barney Frank This is NOT Lean D. Sorry, Charlie.
PA-15: Charlie Dent How did Pat Toomey hold this seat?
CO-7: Ed Perlmutter I just don’t think Perlmutter is as vulnerable as people say.
NM-3: Ben Lujan Neither is Lujan. The Hispanics here turn out.
CA-44: Ken Calvert District will be pure toss-up post Prop 20. Please, can we get rid of him then? BTW, this is all based on a Prop 20 map I drew.
IL-8: Melissa Bean Lucked out with joke of a challenger. Life’s been good to her soooo far!
NY-22: Maurice Hinchey He’s not in danger, but I think this is his last relection. Saves having to combine two congresspeoples’ districts, and this is the weirdest-shaped upstate one anyway.
NJ-6: Bill Pascrell I really know nothing about this guy.
PA-17: Tim Holden He’ll be holden on to this seat for two more years, we’ll see about redistricting
TN-5: Jim Cooper Everyone says he’s not a fit for the district, but it’s no more than D+5. Nashville’s not Memphis.
NJ-12: Rush Holt It’s amazing two people named Rush are prominent in politics, but they couldn’t be more different
TX-something: Ruben Hinojosa Also know nothing about this guy
MI-3: Justin Amash Too conservative for district, but wrong year
AZ-8: Gabby Giffords I really like her, but can she beat Kyl in 2012?
MO-3: Russ Carnahan Carnahans, they’re everywhere! RedState has some BS about how he’s anti-Catholic
CA-20: Jim Costa Hispanics turn out at low rates, but Costa’s very moderate
WV-3: Nick Rahall Incredibly racist anti-Rahall ads
FL-2: Allen Boyd Dead man walking. Wasn’t bad at all for a rural Southern Democrat. Will be missed.
GA-2: Sanford Bishop Too many Blacks in district for Keown.
IA-3: Leonard Boswell Amazing recovery, but he’s retiring in two years, I bet. Good way to go out.
OH-12: Pat Tiberi I always thought this guy was a moderate, but I checked DW-Nominate and he’s nothing of the sort.
NC-2: Bob Etheridge Yes, ElectionProjection, of COURSE he’ll lose.
NC-4: David Price Why is he vulnerable? He’s a Kanjo waiting to happen. Retire next cycle, please.
IN-8: Larry Bucshon Generic R vs. Generic D in this district? What do you think?
OR-4: Peter DeFazio Art Robinson? HA
TX-something: Henry Cuellar Another anonymous Hispanic Texas Dem, along with Hinojosa, Ortiz.
MN-1: Tim Walz Guy’s entrenched himself well, coming after a real conservative guy in Gutknecht
IA-2: Dave Loebsack Smart, progressive guy
55-45 districts: MI-9: Gary Peters Rocky is Tea Party member in suburban district. I don’t think so.
NC-11: Heath Shuler Heath, you will NEVER be speaker. Sorry.
TX-17: Bill Flores He almost lost in 2008, kind of. This is the end, Chet. Too bad.
WA-9: Adam Smith Who would’ve thought the guy who invented laissez-faire was a Democrat?
FL-24: Sandy Adams Kosmas wouldn’t have won if Feeney wasn’t corrupt
NY-21: Paul Tonko Albany area trending away from Dems, slowly.
AZ-7: Raul Grijalva Boycotting your own state? I’d primary him if I lived there. Also, the whole killing HCR thing was a dick move (do they use this expression in other places?)
CA-3: Dan Lungren Just the wrong year. He’s dead in 2012 if Bera runs again and Obama’s semi-popular.
ME-1: Chellie Pingree She’s really weak for a blue district. Don’t let her run for Senate.
TX-something: Solomon Ortiz See above
PA-6: Jim Gerlach He’s been lucky
IA-1: Bruce Braley AAF can’t get rid of him
CT-4: Jim Himes Strong Freshman
OH-1: Steve Chabot Dreihaus needed Obama and AA turnout
KS-3: Kevin Yoder Dennis Moore: Time for a new generation of leadership. My wife’s gonna run to replace me. I call bullshit on him.
IL-11: Adam Kinzinger He’s a really strong candidate. Let’s see how he votes, and if he’s eyeing a promotion.
IN-2: Joe Donnelly Donnelly might be in his last term next year.
NY-1: Tim Bishop Very popular
WI-7: Sean Duffy Open seats are really tough to defend.
MA-6: John Tierney Tierney’s actually more liberal than most of his delegation despite more blue-collar district. Oh yeah, and his wife…
AZ-5: Harry Mitchell He’s to Tempe what LeBron is to…oh wait…
ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy Hoeven, environment, cap and trade, etc. Not looking good for Earl.
NC-7: Mike McIntyre His candidate should be in jail, in a cell with Rick Scott and Allen West.
CA-47: Loretta Sanchez What’s with Sanchezes and racial/ethnic gaffes/bigotry?
TN-4: Lincoln Davis This one might be closer than I predict. Wouldn’t be surprised if he loses.
VA-9: Rick Boucher I WOULD be surprised here
CO-4: Cory Gardner Buck will do well here, and Gardner’s Generic R.
TN-8: Stephen Fincher Tennessee’s a bloodbath this year
MN-6: Michelle Bachmann I say keep her in the House and get rid of Kline.
AR-1: Rick Crawford Historically Dem Mississippi River districts not looking so hot this year
PA-3: Mike Kelly Why isn’t this race closer?
IL-10: Dan Seals Here’s a pickup by our side. How liberal is Seals? I heard he was a Blue Dog, I think?
NY-13: Mike McMahon Asshole, but he’s our asshole.
OH-15: Steve Stivers Kilroy is a very weak candidate
FL-8: Dan Webster Grayson should look up “asshole” in Webster’s dictionary; he’ll see his picture there
KY-6: Ben Chandler Raise your hand if you knew he was the son of an MLB commish
NY-24: Mike Arcuri This one’s a shocker
OH-10: Dennis Kucinich He’s just weird…
SC-5: Mick Mulvaney Not huge loss as he’d be gone in two years anyway, either from redistricting or retirement.
AZ-3: Ben Quayle What an ass.
IL-17: Bobby Schilling He’s a one-termer if I every saw one.
WA-2: Rick Larsen District’s more conservative than you’d think, Murray could lose it narrowly.
VA-11: Gerry Connolly Getting a bit worried about this one…
NY-19: Nan Hayworth Who wouldn’t vote for a rogue ophthamologist named Nan?
MS-1: Alan Nunnellee Fear the mustache
NM-1: Martin Heinrich New Mexico’s next Senator
CA-18: Dennis Cardoza Water issues are very key here
HI-1: Colleen Hanabusa Expected it to be bigger margin
VA-2: Scott Rigell Nye’s disappointed netroots
WI-8: Reid Ribble Great name, but Kagen was great congressman
NJ-3: Jon Runyan I’m surprised, but I think he’ll win
FL-25: David Rivera Will he become entrenched fast enough?
WI-3: Ron Kind RedState’s been touting this one for months. Another “next senator”
AL-2: Bobby Bright Good fit for district
OH-16: Jim Renacci Boccieri can play with his newborn instead
MD-1: Andy Harris People don’t like him, but he’s the Republican
PA-12: Mark Critz Will be eliminated in two years
FL-22: Ron Klein In the end, West’s just plain crazy. This one may be more based on hope than gut.
NM-2: Steve Pearce Watch him try and run for senate in 2012
NH-1: Frank Guinta Corrupt. We can get him next cycle.
IL-12: Jerry Costello I don’t care how weak the opponent is. Downstate Illinois is hell this year.
CA-11: Jerry McNerney Harmer’s against public education.
NC-8: Larry Kissell I have no clue how to rate this one, little polling
PA-7: Pat Meehan Only cuz of the cycle
MO-4: Ike Skelton Retiring in two years, but won’t go out a loser
WA-8: Dave Reichert I think health could force retirement soon as well. Hope for a recovery
MS-4: Steven Palazzo Gene’s in an insanely tough district and year. Could a Brett Favre campaign visit this weekend help? He’s injured, right?
NY-20: Guy running against Scott Murphy I honestly forget his name, but this gives GOP the third district upstate to make a safe 24-4 D map.
OR-5: Scott Bruun Is it pronounced Scott Brown?
OH-6: Charlie Wilson What’s with the domestic abuse thing?
OH-18: Zack Space SEIU are idiots
GA-8: Austin Scott Sorry, RuralDem. We’ll see who’s right, and I’ll admit it if I’m not.
VA-5: Rob Hurt Perriello closer than Nye would make me happy
MA-10: Bill Keating How’s Perry still in this?
CO-3: John Salazar Popular
NY-23: Bill Owens Hoffman saved him
IL-14: Randy Hultgren It’s the environment
IN-9: Baron Hill HoosierDem will be happy
TX-23: Ciro Rodriguez I heard he’s winning.
MI-7: Mark Schauer Walberg is flawed
MN-8: Jim Oberstar I agree with Mark, I could see him losing
PA-8: Mike Fitzpatrick Would instantly be most moderate GOPer
NH-2: Charlie Bass He’s really not moderate, if you look at the record
WV-1: David McKinley I say R pickup either way, Oliverio’s not staying if R’s take House
AZ-1: Ann Kirkpatrick Optimistic about Navajo
SD-AL: Kristi Noem Driving record almost brings her down
MI-1: Dan Benishek A new Dr. Dan
NV-3: Joe Heck Just switched this one today.
PA-10: Tom Marino How is he winning?
PA-11: Paul Kanjorski How is HE winning? Remember when we all “knew” Kanjo would lose, Carney would win?
I literally have Speaker Boehner by one seat…wow.