In light of the fact that Arizona has no less than five(!) competitive congressional races next week, I wanted to put together county-level vote baselines for each of the competitive races. Of course, three of those five congressional districts (AZ-03, AZ-05 and AZ-08) are mostly or entirely within one county so baselines don’t do much good there. I’ll go ahead and provide baselines for AZ-01, AZ-07 and throw in AZ-08. For AZ-03, AZ-05, and again AZ-08, I will be providing information about the State Legislative districts within their boundaries and give you some idea of what to look for based on which LDs report first.
First, though, a few general notes about election night. Polls close at 7pm local time (that’s 10pm on the East Coast and 7pm in California because most of Arizona doesn’t observe Daylight Savings Time). Nothing will be reported, however, until 8pm, when counties will release most or all of the Early Voters and Vote-by-Mail results. Precinct level results will then start to come in.
AZ-01 (Ann Kirkpatrick, D-Flagstaff)
Alright, first up is Arizona’s 1st Congressional District, where Flagstaff Democratic Ann Kirkpatrick is in the fight of her life against Flagstaff Republican Paul Gosar. Now, I decided to use 2008-based baselines instead of 2006-based ones. This might strike some people as odd, because of the widely-parroted idea that turnout on the Navajo Nation surges during off-year elections. Unfortunately for Kirkpatrick, I’ve crunched a lot of numbers regarding voting on the Navajo Nation over the last ten years and that simply is an exaggeration. In the 2008 election, the Navajo Nation made up 12.5% of the AZ-01 electorate. In the 2006 election, that percentage was only a little bit higher, 13.5%. However, other differences between the 2006 and 2008 electorate have a bigger influence on the baselines, most notably the fact that it doesn’t capture continuing growth in Pinal County and that it overestimates likely Democratic performance in Yavapai County (where ’06 Dem nominee Ellen Simon lived) while underestimating Democratic performance in the White Mountains (where Ann Kirkpatrick was born and raised-and where Simon got stomped.) If you want to figure that turnout in Apache, Coconino and Yavapai Counties will be slightly higher and slightly bluer (and thus Gosar will need to do slightly better in places like Yavapai County than the baseline suggests) go ahead. If you’re holding out for a Navajo Nation turnout miracle, however, prepare to be disappointed.
Anyway, here’s the baseline.
| Counties | Kirkpatrick ’08 | Hay | Other | Percent of CD | Kirkpatrick ’10 | Gosar | Other |
| Yavapai | 47 | 47 | 6 | 34 | 39 | 57 | 4 |
| Coconino | 65 | 29 | 5 | 19 | 57 | 39 | 3 |
| Pinal | 59 | 37 | 5 | 13 | 51 | 47 | 3 |
| Navajo | 57 | 40 | 3 | 12 | 49 | 49 | 2 |
| Apache | 74 | 23 | 3 | 9 | 66 | 32 | 2 |
| Gila | 52 | 43 | 5 | 8 | 44 | 53 | 3 |
| Graham | 43 | 54 | 3 | 4 | 35 | 63 | 2 |
| Greenlee | 60 | 37 | 3 | 1 | 52 | 46 | 2 |
| Total | 56 | 39 | 5 | 100 | 48 | 49 | 3 |
I’ve already summed up most of the intricacies of the AZ-01, but I’d throw in that Pinal County will probably be the crucial swing area.
Also, if anyone is curious about the totalities of my findings on the influence of the Navajo Nation on AZ-01, I’ll try to get another diary up before an election. (But here’s the biggest shock: Paul Babbit didn’t get spanked in ’04 because the Navajo Nation didn’t turn out; they turned out at almost the same rate they did in 2002-they just voted for Renzi!).
AZ-03 (OPEN)
Next up is Arizona’s 3rd Congressional District, where Phoenix Democrat Jon Hulbred is hoping to pull off a major upset against Dan progeny and Phoenix Republican Ben Quayle. Now a Democrat winning an open seat in a R+9 district in this cycle does seem a bit like science fiction, but polls have indicated that the race might be quite close, and the southern half of the district has been trending Democratic. Add in Quayle’s “broken moral compass” and Hulbred’s ability to self-fund and, well, this district bears watching.
Now, how can we actually watch this district, as it’s entirely in Maricopa County? Well, while I obviously can’t provide any meaningful county baselines, I can give you an idea of what state legislative districts are in the district so you adjust your expectations to the race based on what LDs report first. I’m only providing information on Lds where the majority of the population lives in the CD, as those are the most relevant.
| LD | Location | Reps (Sntr, Rep, Rep) | Approx. % of LD in CD | Obama (District-Wide) | McCain (District-Wide) |
| LD-06 | Northwest PHX, Anthem | OPEN, Seele, Reeve | 95 | 39 | 59 |
| LD-07 | Northeast PHX, Carefree | OPEN, OPEN, OPEN | 85 | 40 | 59 |
| LD-10 | Sunnyslope, Metrocenter | Gray, Weiers, Yee | 70 | 44 | 54 |
| LD-11 | Camelback Mtn, Paradise Valley | OPEN, OPEN, Meyer | 90 | 46 | 53 |
Alright, so the question that you’ll have to figure out if you want an idea of Hulbred’s chances on Tuesday is what part of AZ-03 is reporting first. If LD-06 and LD-07 report more quickly than the southern end of the district and Hulbred is holding up pretty well, than he may well be on his way to a big upset. If LD-10 and LD-11 appear to be reporting first and Hulbred isn’t up big, than it likely isn’t happening.
For another way of looking at this, you can also consider the results of some of these LD races. If Democrats Justin Johnson and/or Rita Dickinson look like they’re on their ways to winning the State Senate races in LD-10 and LD-11, respectively, then that would be a good sign for Hulburd as both parties are extremely active in both Lds, particularly in the State Senate races.
AZ-05 (Harry Mitchell, D-Tempe)
My bet for the biggest nail-biter in Arizona on Tuesday in Arizona’s 5th Congressional District, where Tempe Democrat Harry Mitchell is in a difficult rematch against Fountain Hills Republican David Schweikert. While Congressman Mitchell performed better than expected against former Maricopa County Treasurer Schweikert in 2008, that was in part because of huge turnout from Arizona State University-something he probably can’t count on this time.
Again, county-level baselines would be pointless in this district because the whole district is in Maricopa County. However, paying close attention to which Legislative Districts turn out first can give you a pretty good idea of what’s going on Tuesday night.
| LD | Location | Reps (Sntr, Rep, Rep) | Approx. % of LD in CD | Obama (District-Wide) | McCain (District-Wide) |
| LD-08 | Scottsdale, Fountain Hills | OPEN, OPEN, Kavanagh | 100 | 41 | 58 |
| LD-17 | Tempe, Downtown Scottsdale | OPEN, Ableser, OPEN | 100 | 56 | 42 |
| LD-20 | Western Chandler, Ahwatukee | OPEN, OPEN, Waters | 90 | 48 | 50 |
Since the district is pretty well concentrated into three Lds (with small fragments in several others), and one is heavily Republican, one is relatively Democratic, and one happens to be the most closely divided in the state. Basically, if LD-08 comes in first and Mitchell’s still holding up ok, than he should be fine. He’ll probably need a big win (and big turnout) in LD-17 to pull this out though, so if LD-17 is leading the pack and Schweikert’s looking pretty strong, this race is probably done.
If you want to consider LD races as well, keep a close eye on LD-17. In the State Senate race, Democratic State Rep. David Schapira is in a close race with Republican Wendy Rogers. If Rogers looks like she’s going to win, it’s hard to imagine how Mitchell holds on. I’d love to tell you what to look for in the LD-20 State Senate race except, umm, for some reason we’re not fielding a candidate there. Only the Arizona Democratic Party wouldn’t put up a challenger in an open seat that gave Obama 48% of the vote against native son Johnny Mac. Ugh. Anyway, I guess people can watch State Rep. Rae Waters in LD-20, though I think she’ll be fine either way.
AZ-07 (Raúl Grijalva, D-Tucson)
Republicans are ecstatic at the prospect of unseating Tucson Democrat Raúl Grijalva with Tucson Republican Ruth McClung. But do they really have a realistic chance of knocking off the Co-Chair of the Progressive Caucus with someone running on a Tea Party platform? Both my heart and my gut say that it’s unlikely, but weird things happen in wave elections and the district is only D+6. It seems like some of the furor over immigration has cooled off, but it’s not like the boycott is entirely forgotten. That being said, I’m not sure that the boycott moves enough Hispanics and White liberals for McClung to get over the top.
| Counties | Grijalva ’08 | Sweeney | Other | Percent of CD | Grijalva ’10 | McClung | Other |
| Pima | 73 | 24 | 4 | 48 | 58 | 39 | 3 |
| Yuma | 50 | 45 | 5 | 21 | 35 | 62 | 3 |
| Maricopa | 57 | 39 | 4 | 16 | 42 | 55 | 3 |
| Pinal | 49 | 47 | 4 | 8 | 34 | 63 | 3 |
| Santa Cruz | 79 | 19 | 2 | 5 | 64 | 34 | 2 |
| La Paz | 42 | 54 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 70 | 3 |
| Total | 63 | 33 | 4 | 101 | 48 | 49 | 3 |
I think this model illustrates the difficulty McClung will face in getting over the top, but all shows the potential for her to get relatively close. I could easily see her doing about that well in Yuma, La Paz, Maricopa and Pinal Counties-Yuma and La Paz Counties generally lean Republican and probably won’t be in the mood to split their tickets the year, and the portions of Maricopa and Pinal Counties that are in AZ-07 have seen big influxes of exburban Whites along with some middle-class Hispanics, so it’s surprising that Grijalva has held up there as well as he has. The potentially fatal problem for McClung, however, is Pima and Santa Cruz Counties. McClung can barely even pronounce Nogales, she’s not going to get many cross-over voters there. Meanwhile, the portion of Pima County in AZ-07 contains primarily urban Hispanics, several different tribes of American Indians and lots of those mythical “Tucson White liberals” everyone yammers on about when discussing racial politics in Arizona. She might pluck off some voters from the latter group, but her conservative profile makes it difficult for her to make deep in-roads.
Alright, that might have been a little too much spin, but the point is that, on balance, the political geography is rather hazardous for McClung, and, unless it’s clear early in the night that key demographics aren’t showing up, Grijalva should be on his way to a close but comfortable victory.
AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords, D-Tucson)
We end this journey of competitive house races in Arizona with the place where I was born and raised, Arizona’s 8th Congressional District, where Tucson Democrat Gabrielle Giffords is locked in a tough race with Marana Republican Jesse Kelly. While Republicans expressed concerns about their chances of winning this district after Kelly won the primary and Giffords has run several of this cycles better political ads, neither party is leaving anything to chance, and this will almost surely be the closest race of Giffords’ congressional career. Also in Giffords’ favor is the fact that she’s built a decent GOTV operation-nothing too flashy but much better than what the Arizona Democratic Party puts forth, which is basically nothing (Do you guys realize that Dems probably would have won the Arizona State House in 2008 if we had the GOTV operation pretty much any other respectable Democratic party has? Imagine: no massive education cuts, no suspension of the corporate property tax, SB 1070 has to be compromised or it’s thrown out entirely… but I digress).
Here’s what we have for a baseline…
| Counties | Giffords ’08 | Bee | Other | Percent of CD | Giffords ’10 | Bee | Other |
| Pima | 56 | 42 | 2 | 82 | 50 | 48 | 2 |
| Cochise | 49 | 48 | 3 | 15 | 43 | 54 | 3 |
| Pinal | 45 | 54 | 1 | 2 | 39 | 60 | 1 |
| Santa Cruz | 57 | 41 | 3 | 1 | 51 | 47 | 3 |
| Total | 55 | 43 | 2 | 100 | 49 | 49 | 2 |
As you can see, it isn’t actually that useful, because the bulk of the district lives in Pima County. If Kelly doesn’t look like he’s going to win Cochise County, than forget it. If Giffords is struggling in Pima County, than she’s probably struggling district-wide, but I didn’t have to tell you that.
In this case, legislative districts might be more useful than just baselines alone, because so depends on what part of the district reports first.
| LD | Location | Reps (Sntr, Rep, Rep) | Approx. % of LD in CD | Obama (District-Wide) | McCain (District-Wide) |
| LD-25 | Nogales, Douglas, Rural South. AZ | Alvarez, Fleming, Stevens | 50 | 47 | 52 |
| LD-26 | Northern Tucson Suburbs | Melvin, Williams, Wright | 100 | 45 | 54 |
| LD-28 | Midtown Tucson | Aboud, Farley, OPEN | 85 | 62 | 37 |
| LD-29 | Southside Tucson, Davis-Monthan AFB | Lopez, Patterson, Heinz | 50 | 59 | 40 |
| LD-30 | Eastern Tucson Suburbs, Sierra Vista | Antenori, Gowan, Vogt | 100 | 43 | 56 |
I should note that my disclaimer that Obama/McCain numbers come from the LD-at-large and not the fragment within the CD is particularly relevent, because the portions of LD-25 and LD-29 that are in AZ-08 are somewhat more Republican than the presidential numbers suggest. The part of LD-25 in AZ-08 is probably about as Republican as LD-30 and the part of LD-29 in AZ-08 is probably pretty close to 50/50. So, if Giffords is struggling but the only parts of the district in are LD-25 & LD-30, I wouldn’t hit the panic button just yet. But if she’s struggling, LD-28 is all in, and you’re hoping LD-29 is going to save her, it’s probably not happening. In the last two races, Giffords has done very well in LD-26, because its tendency is to elect moderates. If LD-26 is the first out that gate and it looks like it’s turning on her, than it’s going to be a long night.
If you want to peg Giffords’ chances to legislative districts, again, keep a close eye on LD-26. Despite first (barely) winning in a Democratic year, Republican State Sen. Al Melvin is probably in serious trouble in his rematch against Democrat Cheryl Cage; if it looks like she’s going to win then that’s probably a pretty good sign for Giffords. If Democrat Todd Camenisch is upsetting Republican State Sen. Frank Antenori in LD-30, then it’ll probably be a good night for Southern Arizona Dems and Giffords should be fine. Manny Alvarez will likely have a pretty close race in LD-25 against Republican Gail Griffin, but unless he’s losing badly results there are going to say more about turnout in AZ-07 than voters turning against Dems in AZ-08.
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