SpiderDem’s House of Denial – Senate Edition

After seeing my prediction of 32 House seat pickups for the Republicans yesterday, most of you probably think I’m a lunatic.  Well I’m just getting warmed up.  

In the Senate, here’s what I’m confident of.  First, Republicans will pick up no fewer than four seats: AR, IN, ND, and WI.  Second, Republicans will not pick up more than eight, which is confirmed by Charlie Cook of all people.  So the question becomes who wins seats five through eight: CO, IL, NV, and PA.  And what does a Democrat in deep denial say to that?  Clean sweep, baby.  Democrats win all four seats, and drop four seats total.

Why, you ask?  The only good reason I can give is that Democrats have varying degrees of boots on the ground, GOTV advantages in all of these states.  Otherwise, the answer is self-delusion and an inability to cope with anything worse.  And as a side note, for the time being, I am discounting the possibility of a surprise pickup in Alaska, although I hope for it more than anything.  I think Murkowski will win there.

Without further ado, here are my predictions:

AK – Murkowski (WI) 40, McAdams (D) 30, Miller (R) 28 – Not quite feeling the McMagic.

AL – Shelby (R) 64, Barnes (D) 36 – Shelby probably safe until he retires.

AR – Boozman (R) 56, Lincoln (D) 40 – For all that happened, losing this seat may have been inevitable.

AZ – McCain (R) 57, Glassman (D) 38 – Remember how J.D. Hayworth was going to take out McCain?

CA – Boxer (D) 49, Fiorina (R) 44 – If Cook says it’s over for Team Red, it’s over.

CO – Bennet (D) 49, Buck (R) 48 – Dems apparently pleased with the early voting results.

CT – Blumenthal (D) 55, McMahon (R) 43 – McMahon may as well have lit her millions on fire.

DE – Coons (D) 56, O’Donnell (R) 42 – Amazing that O’Donnell seems somewhat likely to reach 40%.

FL – Rubio (R) 45, Crist (I) 36, Meek (D) 16 – Rubio on cruise control here.

GA – Isakson (R) 60, Thurmond (D) 36 – Isakson appears to have blown the barn doors off of this.

HI – Inouye (D) 61, Cavasso (R) 35 – Not buying Rasmussen’s massive enthusiasm gap.

IA – Grassley (R) 61, Conley (D) 38 – Wrong cycle for nice Democratic recruit.

ID – Crapo (R) 72, Sullivan (D) 26 – Not a serious challenge at all.

IL – Giannoulias (D) 47, Kirk (R) 46 – Dems work magic with base turnout.

IN – Coats (R) 57, Ellsworth (D) 40 – Wonder if Bayh would have held this one in the end.

KS – Moran (R) 66, Johnston (D) 32 – Dems will be blown out across the board in Kansas.

KY – Paul (R) 55, Conway (D) 45 – Oh what might have been in this one.

LA – Vitter (R) 51, Melancon (D) 41 – Sadly Melancon is about the best LA Dems can do.

MD – Mikulski (D) 58, Wargotz (R) 39 – No problem here for Mikulski.

MO – Blunt (R) 53, Carnahan (D) 45 – Carnahan can win a big statewide race in a better cycle.

NC – Burr (R) 54, Marshall (D) 42 – Marshall never really had the resources to compete.

ND – Hoeven (R) 70, Potter (D) 28 – Glad we didn’t have to watch Dorgan go up in flames.

NH – Ayotte (R) 55, Hodes (D) 41 – I don’t think Hodes would have beaten Lamontagne either.

NV – Reid (D) 47, Angle (R) 45 – I’m going with Jon Ralston all the way here.

NY-A – Schumer (D) 63, Townsend (R) 35 – This one was never in question.

NY-B – Gillibrand (D) 60, DioGuardi (R) 37 – Remember all those weird polls in the low single digits?

OH – Portman (R) 57, Fisher (D) 39 – Everyone’s favorite Kamikaze A-wing pilot goes down hard.

OK – Coburn (R) 69, Rogers (D) 29 – Coburn will get to continue rooting out OK’s lesbian problem.

OR – Wyden (D) 57, Huffman (R) 39 – A lesser Dem would be in a dogfight here.

PA – Sestak (D) 50, Toomey (R) 50 – Democratic machine pulls out all the stops for Joe.

SC – Demint (R) 63, Greene (D) 24 – What a fiasco for South Carolina Dems.

SD – Thune (R) unopposed.

UT – Lee (R) 65, Granato (D) 31 – Utah just might be a tough place for a Dem to win this year.

VT – Leahy (D) 65, Britton (R) 32 – No contest for Leahy.

WA – Murray (D) 53, Rossi (R) 47 – If Cook says it’s over for Team Red, it’s over.

WI – Johnson (R) 52, Feingold (D) 46 – Washington needs more Russ Feingolds, not less.

WV – Manchin (D) 51, Raese (R) 46 – If Cook says it’s over for Team Red, it’s over.

29 thoughts on “SpiderDem’s House of Denial – Senate Edition”

  1. at all. None of the candidates you mention are down by double digits like Fisher is, so I don’t think it’d be that big of shock to see any of them win. It would be more surprising to see Conway win, and if I had to pick one rave that would surprise people, it would be that one. So perhaps I’m more delusional than you!

  2. I’d gladly take this scenario, though I’m not pleased with losing Feingold.

    As for Bayh, I think he would’ve done alright. Nobody was particularly impressed with Coats when he got into the race against Bayh, and nobody’s impressed with him now. Given the terrible state of the Midwest for us, it would’ve become closer than it was looking before Bayh’s retirement, but I’m thinking a 55-45 loss was Coats’ ceiling.  

  3. Watching the tea-party-bag candidates go down in a flame of embarrassment and humiliation in a year when they all should win would be FANTASTIC!

  4. The Republicans tend to be weak in get out the vote efforts because they have a shortage of labor.  This year won’t be any different- the Tea Party isn’t a whole lot of people, they aren’t really who you’d want calling swing voters anyway, and many of those who do get involves will be doing ridiculous crap like hanging around Democratic areas trying to bust ACORN.

  5. but otherwise we agree pretty much exactly. Though, as other posters have noted, Indiana is going to be closer than the pundits think thanks to Coats’s personal meh-ness making him fairly unpopular. If Ellsworth hadn’t spent most of the year trying to save his fricking House seat instead of actually campaigning against Coats, he’d have won. We should’ve run Hill instead, and probably would have if Bayh hadn’t timed his announcement for exactly when Hill was incommunicado in Afghanistan. Wonder if that was intentional? Bayh really is that much of a jackass.

    We still might be able to save IN-08 as a surprise, but even if we do, it’s not worth it.  

  6. Democrats lose only North Dakota, Arkansas, and Indiana…but win Alaska and Kentucky.

    Net loss of only 1 seat, new Senate is 58-42 Dem.

    Hey, we can dream right?

    In any case absolute worst case scenario seems to be Repubs picking up 9, taking us to a split Senate with Biden breaking ties.  It’s hilarious that Christine O’Donnell has effectively removed the possibility of Republican control of the Senate.

  7. I agree with you completely on which way the seats go, but I disagree slightly on the margins of two in particular…

    NV-Sen: Call me REALLY crazy, but I’m feeling quite good about the GOTV operation the NV Dems have in place. I don’t feel comfortable pinpointing it yet, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Reid wins by 3% or by 6%.

    CA-Sen: For me, The Field Poll confirmed what I’ve been suspecting for some time. It’s pretty much game over and Boxer wins nicely, so long as CA Dems turn out on Tuesday. I think she wins by at least 7% and perhaps by 10%.

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