SSP Updates 13 House Race Ratings

We’ll post a final House ratings chart soon. For now, here are our latest changes:

  • CA-20: Lean D to Tossup
  • FL-08: Tossup to Lean R
  • GA-02: Lean D to Tossup
  • GA-08: Tossup to Lean R
  • IA-01: Likely D to Lean D
  • ME-01: Likely D to Lean D
  • MN-08: Likely D to Lean D
  • MS-02: Safe D to Likely D
  • NH-01: Tossup to Lean R
  • NM-01: Lean D to Tossup
  • OH-18: Lean D to Tossup
  • TX-27: Likely D to Lean D
  • WI-03: Likely D to Lean D

All of these moves favor Republicans.

195 thoughts on “SSP Updates 13 House Race Ratings”

  4. Election day is here and there hasn’t been any swing back towards the Democrats. Outside a handful of races where the polling got better the rest of the country has stayed where it was (pretty bad) or gotten worse. This list could probably be longer with races shifting towards the GOP. Remember 06′? Towards the end even guys like Kyl were thought of as vulnerable. As the consquences of the national trend started being felt on indivdual races, one saw more and more “safe” or “likely” Rs slipping into the vulnerable terrority.  

  5. Just can’t see either of those as 50/50 at this point. The Dems are favored at least to some degree there.  

  7. but Iowa Democrats don’t seem too worried about Braley now. Unbelievably, if one of the Ds loses on Tuesday it may be Loebsack.

    I just went and looked at the returned absentee ballot numbers by Iowa county as of October 29 (morning). In IA-01, county auditors had received 26,301 ballots from Democrats, 19,322 ballots from Republicans and 10,974 ballots from no-party voters. Satellite voting locations were open on Friday and Saturday, and I’m sure lots more mailed ballots came in, but the Secretary of State’s office doesn’t plan to update the numbers by county again before the election.

  8. A district that is 44% Black is difficult for a Republican to win. Bishop hadn’t had real trouble since the district was 60% and even then, he still won. The only polls out are from Republican firms, not sure how accurate they are.

  10. I have already pretty much stopped looking at the national/cable news and newspapers.  I am going to do a complete unplug now.  I will miss you guys and I have  have learned a whole lot about CD’s, polls, and polling from you.  I have enjoyed the conversation.

    But I don’t want to hear, as Nate says, the numerous ways that the media can pat the Republicans on their back for their massive win. I don’t want to hear Democrats bash each other so I will just tune it all out.

  15. Does anybody think he has potential as a national candidate? After watching this race, I think he might. He’d be kind of a throwback candidate for the Dems, rather than an “emerging Democratic majority” type though.

  16. NYT LEAD MONDAY: Both parties see possibility of bigger Republican wins in House than either side was talking about — even few days ago… Developing…

    I think this is a Dem leak to manage expectations.

  17. …at dKos asking for not only money but volunteers.  Dennis isn’t the safest guy on the block–remember that OH-10 was represented by a Republican during the 90’s… I don’t really believe he’s endangered, but asking for volunteers isn’t like him if he isn’t really feeling threatened.

  18. William (B.J.) Lawson Yes, Morgan Freeman is the narrator for our most recent commercial. Mr. Clay, you might enjoy another excellent work narrated by Mr. Freeman, our American Declaration of Independence

    This is the Lawson FB page.

  20. For anyone interested, in the state races in Michigan, the Democratic gubernatorial, SoS, and AG candidates have basically been staked out in Detroit since thursday or friday.  Bernero has hit up something like over 20 Detroit churches over the weekend including the 8,000-member Greater Grace Temple.  I take it that this is simply to prevent a total GOP tsunami by turning out the heavily Democratic Detroit vote.

    I’ve heard nothing special of the GOP state candidates.  They are trying as hard as they can to stay out of the media’s way and coast to victory.

    I can say right now I have NO idea what’s to happen Tuesday night.  I usually have a feel for stuff, but this time around I have no idea.

  23. http://publicpolicypolling.blo…

    Giannoulias – 42%

    Kirk – 46%

    Quinn – 40%

    Brady – 45%

    Comes down to turnout, but I expect these two to be narrow pickups for Team Red on Election Night, and I have for a while now. Treasurer Giannoulias and Gov. Quinn are barely stronger candidates than their opponents, and in a wave election heading the wrong direction, that’s just not good enough.

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