SSP Daily Digest: 11/1 (Morning Edition)

Another huge batch of polls to tide you over until tomorrow.

  • CA-Sen
  • DE-Sen (PDF)
  • DE-AL (x2)
  • FL-Sen (Mason-Dixon)
  • FL-Sen (Susquehanna)
  • KS-Sen
  • KS-Gov
  • KS-04
  • MA-Gov
  • MI-09
  • MN-08
  • MN-Gov
  • MO-Sen (PDF)
  • MO-04 (PDF)
  • MO-07 (PDF)
  • NV-Sen
  • NY-19
  • OH-Gov
  • OR-Gov
  • PA-Sen (PPP)
  • PA-Sen (Muhlenberg)
  • PA-Gov (Muhlenberg)
  • RI-02
  • TX-Gov (PDF)
  • WA-Sen (Washington Poll)
  • WA-Sen (SUSA)
  • WI-Sen
  • WI-Sen (PDF)
  • WI-Gov (PDF)

    • Bonus: Siena has four new NY state senate polls out (PDF):

    SD-03: Brian Foley (D-inc) 37, Lee Zeldin (R) 53

    SD-40: Michael Kaplowitz (D) 44, Greg Ball (R) 49

    SD-48: Darrel Aubertine (D-inc) 43, Patty Ritchie (R) 47

    SD-58: Tim Kennedy (D) 45, Jack Quinn (R) 39, William Stachowski (WFP/I) 9

    Note that Stachowski is the incumbent, but lost the Dem primary to Kennedy.

    253 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 11/1 (Morning Edition)”

    2. The toplines are credible, the big thing validating that being that they have Rory Reid losing by “just” 11.  Jon Ralston has indicated that one indicator of poor public polling recently in Nevada has been some polls showing Sandoval up by 20-25 points, when all private polling on both sides shows the race in the low double-digits.  So PPP is on the mark that way.  And of course the one-point race, going either way, is consistent with what Ralston suggests is going on.

      But one weird wrinkle that is clearly wrong:  PPP has a sample that is a whopping 20% Hispanic.  That’s just plain wrong.  Ralston indicated early voting was just over 11% Hispanic, that the Democrats’ goal was 12%, and that Hispanics tend to wait to election day so there’s a possibility of that vote share ticking up on Tuesday.  But it was 15% in exit polling in 2008, and that was a record high.  No one thinks it could go as high as 20%.

      I suspect ultimately the toplines could be right, but the electorate won’t look like that.  I looked at the racial crosstabs, but racial crosstabs are very unreliable to begin with and there was nothing in this poll’s racial crosstabs that jumped out as “the” smoking gun.  The Hispanic AND black breakdowns showed Reid doing worse than he will, but the margins of error are too high to fault that in the poll’s methodology.

    6. I’m sticking with all my Senate predictions (i.e. Kirk, Buck, Reid, Murray, Boxer and Manchin all win), except sadly, I think I have to finally face reality and withdraw my outlier prediction of a Sestak victory. It probably isn’t going to happen.

      BTW, spiderdem, here’s how badly I wan’t Sink to win: I’d sacrifice a couple of Senate seats (probably Murray and Manchin) if she could win. It will actually give me a halfway decent night if she does win.  

    7. This is only the 2nd time since the spring Rasmussen has had Obama at 50 for a day.  He’s at 41 with whites, 97-3 with blacks, and 66-34 with “other.”  And that, by the way, is very credible.

      One thing I find in studying Rasmussen’s Obama job approvals is that their obvious flaw, common on all Rasmussen polling, is in subsamples of “other” minorities.  The white job approval always orbits 40:  usually slightly below 40, occasionally at or slightly above 40.  And that’s very credible.  The black job approval varies more, which is acceptable as it’s a small subsample, but bottoms out at 89 on the worst days and otherwise is always in the 90s–quite often the high 90s.  That, too, makes perfect sense.  But “other” minorities fluctuates wildly and unpredictably, as low as the low 30s and as high as the high 60s.  And THAT is a major flaw in sampling.  It’s endemic to Rasmussen polling and cannot be corrected without major changes in his methodology that he never will make because those changes are too expensive for his business model.

      Realistically, “other” minorities should always be in the 50s or 60s for Obama job approval given the political conditions of the past year-plus and the state of white and black opinion.  Hispanics always are favorable toward Obama and other Democrats, the only question is the margin.  Asians, too, are considerably more favorable than whites, but clearly less so than Hispanics.

      And the fluctuation in Obama’s job approval in Rasmussen ALWAYS can be traced almost completely to “other” respondents.

      Anyway, the bottom line is Rassy is at least showing some sort of Obama spike, perhaps reflecting late interest with “likely” voters, or more likely just a blip.  But worth noting for sure the day before the election.

    9. Most pollsters had found that there’s no great turnout gap in Washington, so PPP’s partisan breakdown (35D-32R) seems a bit rough. It’s 7% worse than 2008, even slightly worse than SUSA and Democrats are under their 2004 level. Though this sure isn’t by itself enough to substantially change the topline.  And of course, this can be played both ways. DCCyclone was commenting above that PPP oversampled Hispanics in Nevada…

    12. That makes 3.  I’d normally dismiss Ras, but they were 3rd in line on this after PPP and Q.

      CT Dems are Charlie Brown against Lucy, and the election the football, in Governor’s races.

    13. I thought CT-Gov was depressing, but now this? RI-01 going Republican would be an instant night-ruiner. I don’t care if we hold the house and/or pick up 10 Republican seats, if RI-01 goes red I will cry. However I still think Cicilline will win.

    14. In Washington state (a vote by mail state)

      14* Every election, the television networks conduct exit polls of people as they leave their polling places on Election Day. If you were asked to participate, how likely is it you would be willing to spend 10 minutes filling out a questionnaire?

    16. …that confirming what one moderator said here, I think it was DavidNYC, that Kraushaar definitely has a hard time concealing his Republican loyalties.  He barely conceals his cheerleading, something that’s not obvious from just a few tweets but over the course of weeks it becomes very clear.  His latest is that Boxer is in trouble and Carly is surging.  I don’t think that’s going to work out for him.

    22. First off, I know people have in general complained about polling that’s done solely over a weekend.

      PPP’s polling over this weekend has generally been disheartening.

      One of the questions/possible lessons learned brought up from NY-23 last year is the effect of Halloween on polling numbers, especially when its over a weekend.

      I realize this is grasping at straws, as I don’t have a statistical basis for what I’m suggesting, and am just hoping that someone else does.

    25. On this, the eve of the 2010 Midterm Elections, the Latino Decisions tracking poll finds a Latino vote more energized, more enthused, and significantly more Democratic than at the start of the general election campaign.

      Overall, with undecided voters pushed to make a decision, they are reporting 70% vote intention for Democrats, and 30% for Republicans, on the generic ballot midterm question.

      http://www.hispanicallyspeakin…

    27. For the Dems to keep the NYS Senate they need Foley & Aubertine to win.

      Looking at these numbers I think the GOP could even end up with a 2 or 3 seat majority.

      BTW, not to quibble but isnt Kennedy in SD-58 the Democrat & Conservative Party candidate? I know he bolted from the Dems in The Niagra County Legislature & sided with the GOP to give them control there. So he could be a wild card if he wins.  

    32. Sounds like they’re talking about snow.

      The Cook Political Report’s pre-election House outlook is a Democratic net loss of 50 to 60 seats, with higher losses possible.

      I’mm just hoping now to keep it under 60.

    34. http://seattletimes.nwsource.c…

      Comparing those numbers to the 2004 governor’s race (where Rossi wound up basically tied with Democrat Chris Gregoire), Shortridge sees a heartening trend for Rossi: turnout in Democratic areas so far looks comparitively depressed.

      Shortridge writes:

         “As you’ll note, in 2004, turnout in the heavily Democrat 7th CD was about 1.4 percentage points ahead of the state average. This year, the 7th CD is 3.3 percentage points behind the statewide average. Likewise, the 1st CD was 4 percentage points ahead of the statewide average in 2004. This year, it is 2.7 percentage points behind.”

         “Further, in 2004, the more Republican 4th CD was 3.8 percentage points behind the state average, while the 5th CD was just under 2.5 percentage points behind. This year, the 4th CD is almost 5 percentage points ahead, as is the 5th CD.”

      What are Cook and the Dems seeing that makes them so confident?

    40. And that’ll all come down to whether the GOP can convince Lieberman and/or Nelson to bolt their way. My gut tells me the GOP may sweep all toss-up/tilt races tomorrow, with the Dems clinging to California and West Virginia. In order words, a 51-49 majority that would force TWO Dem switches.

    41. I’d hate to eat crow, but the the latest polls from Walberg (Michigan 7th) and Rocky (Michigan 9th) seem like totall bullsh%t to me.  It seems that they are trying to get these polls out to prevent what may be a rout for the Republican candidates in these districts.

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