The Most Optimistic Set of Predictions You’ll See (H: D-24, S: D-4)

I think I’m about to post the most optimistic set of predictions this board will probably see. Aside from a brutal South, I think Dems will be relatively okay through the rest of the nation.

(As a side note, I’ll be knocking doors in Pittsburgh all day tomorrow, so I’m signing off until 9PM-ish tomorrow.)

Reasoning:

1. I fundamentally believe that the polling is off in our favor-too much Razzy goodness, too much crappy Republican internal polling, and bad, bad LV models (also cell phone effect) have been baked into the so called “cake”. I just don’t buy it (either that or I’m in denial).

2. …..except in the South, there I do buy the polling actually being as bad as it is.

3. The other major thing that should help Democrats, especially in the Philadelphia-Kansas City corridor is the GOTV ground game brought to you by your friendly local unions. This conversely explains why the South will be so bad.

4. In key states, like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado, and New York,  while they may not all win, Senate and Gubernatorial candidates are doing well enough to save the Chris Carneys, John Salazars, Zack Spaces, and John Halls of the world.

5. Too many bad GOP candidates like Allan West, Tim Walberg, Tom Marino, Andy Harris and Sharron Angle (among many others).

6. Everyone remembers the great GOP landslide of 1998, don’t we….

Senate

Senate (D-4)

North Dakota

Indiana

Arkansas

Wisconsin (though I can easily see PA here)

House:

Republican Gains (31)

South (14)

Arkansas 1st

Arkansas 2nd

Florida 2nd

Florida 8th

Florida 24th

Georgia 8th

Louisiana 3rd

Mississippi 1st

Tennessee 4th

Tennessee 6th

Tennessee 8th

Texas 17th

Virginia 2nd

Virginia 5th

Northeast (5)

New Hampshire 1st

New York 29th

Pennsylvania 3rd

Pennsylvania 7th

Pennsylvania 11th

Midwest (9)

Michigan 1st

Illinois 11th

Illinois 17th

Indiana 8th

Kansas 3rd

Ohio 1st

Ohio 15th

Wisconsin 7th

Wisconsin 8th

West (3)

Arizona 1st

Colorado 4th

New Mexico 2nd

Democratic Pickups (7)

Arizona 3rd ****UPSET SPECIAL****

Delawrare-AL

Florida 25th

Hawaii 1st

Illinois 10th

Louisiana 2nd

Washington 8th ****UPSET SPECIAL****

3 thoughts on “The Most Optimistic Set of Predictions You’ll See (H: D-24, S: D-4)”

  1. do as well as you think they might, they will break open champagne bottles in the White House.

    I’ve been more optimistic than most, but man, even I’d have a hard time going beyond a five-seat majority.  

  2. do as well as you think they might, they will break open champagne bottles in the White House.

    I’ve been more optimistic than most, but man, even I’d have a hard time going beyond a five-seat majority.  

  3. that i consider Industrial Midwest (plus Pennsylvania) as the most problematic region for Democrats this year. And i still think so if Senate and Governorships are included (luckily, there were extremely few Senate and Governor races with Demnocratic incumbents in the South, otherwise the bloodbath would be even more impressive). But as only House races are concerned – yes. And mostly because local Republican candidadet doesn’t run against Childers, Taylor, Edwards, Boyd and so on (most of them would win their races if campaigns were really localized)- they run against well-known and rather hated in the South trio: Obama-Pelosi-Reid. In some aspects this is a mirror image of 2006, when Democratic candidates, say, in IA-02 and RI-SEN ran not against Leach and Chafee, but against Bush. That alone was enough then and may be (i still hope – not in all cases) enough today. When you have such “juicy targets” as i mentioned – you run against them, not against “direct opponents”….

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