What is going on in NY-25?

Well what a topsy turvy race this has been. On election night we thought that Maffei had it in the bag, only to discover, when all 4 counties that make up NY-25 reported all precincts, that the Republican candidate was in fact in front by 684 votes!

Below the fold for more……..

Now almost a week after election day it seems that about 11,000 absentee ballots were distributed across the 25th. Final returns won’t be known for at least another week.

What we do know is this:

Election day numbers (D/R):

Cayuga – 959(35.4%)/1748(64.6%)

Monroe – 16426(45.1%)/19987(54.9%)

Onondaga – 72323(53.7%)/62419(46.3%)

Wayne – 9191(37.3%)/15429(62.7%)

Election day totals 98899(49.8%)/99583(50.2%)

Absentees issued (final total)/returned (as of last wednesday night)

Cayuga – 148/117

Monroe – 1660/1243

Onondaga – 8154/5578

Wayne – 1683/1226

TOTALS – 11654/8154

So lets test three scenarios:

1) Vote %’s remain as they were on election day and absentees as per last wednesday night (highly unlikely) then the vote totals will be (D/R):

Cayuga – 1000/1824

Monroe – 16985/20671

Onondaga – 75432/65068

Wayne – 9651/16212

TOTALS – 103068/103775

2) Vote %’s remain as they were on election day but absentee return rate is 100%(also unrealistic)

Absentee returns:

Cayuga – 148/148

Monroe – 1660/1660

Onondaga – 8154/8154

Wayne – 1683/1683

TOTALS – 11654/11654

Votes (D/R)

Cayuga – 1011(35.4%)/1844(64.6%)

Monroe – 17175(45.1%)/20898(54.9%)

Onondaga – 76702(53.7%)/66194(46.3%)

Wayne – 9819(37.3%)/16484(62.7%)

TOTALS – 104707/105420

3) Absentee returns increase by 5% and Maffei Onondaga vote increases by .5%

Absentee returns:

Cayuga – 148/124

Monroe – 1660/1326

Onondaga – 8154/5986

Wayne – 1683/1310

TOTALS – 11654/8746

Votes (D/R)

Cayuga – 1003/1828

Monroe – 17024/20715

Onondaga – 76742/65160

Wayne – 9680/16250

TOTALS – 104449/103953

Maffei by 496.

So what does this mean?

Simply put the only way for Maffei to win is to get a higher percentage of the absentee vote than he did the election day vote. A high absentee return will not by itself get him over the line.

Obviously the most likely way for him to make up enough votes is in Onondaga county, the largest part of the district, and the only county he won.

Can he do it? Time will tell. I think he can by the way as absentees tend to trend toward incumbents as compred to election day votes (as a rule of thumb).

Your thoughts?