• NV-Sen: By far the most interesting news of what’s been a very slow news day is that John Ensign appears to be running again, at least according to one of his spokespersons. While he’s been acting like he’d run again (and he was probably encouraged by that recent PPP poll showing him leading Dean Heller in a GOP primary), it’s still a little surprising, given the disrepair his fundraising operation has fallen into, and the pile of ethics and potentially criminal investigations he’ll have to navigate next year. (H/t sebby123.)
• FL-Sen: Can’t a man publish an op-ed in a major in-state newspaper without people thinking he’s running for a higher office? Well, apparently not, based on reaction to a column written by Rep. Connie Mack IV in the Orlando Sentinel that took Bill Nelson to task over extension of Bush-era tax cuts. Beltway code-talkers are interpreting this as the first salvo of a likely Senate race.
• WV-Sen, WV-Gov, WV-02: GOP Rep. Shelly Moore Capito is sounding studiously noncommital about her plans for 2012. A challenge to newly-elected (in a special election) Sen. Joe Manchin? “I’m not ruling it out…” but also “I have given no thought to it…” (other than, by definition, the amount of thought needed in order to decide not to rule it out). She also didn’t rule out running for Governor in 2012, although she did pretty explicitly rule out running for Governor if the legislature decides they should have a fast odd-numbered-year special election to replace Manchin in 2011. A Manchin/Capito match would be between two super-popular politicians: a Blankenship (the pollster, not the coal company) survey just found Manchin with 80% approvals and Capito at 77%.
• AL-02: Bobby Bright popped up today to criticize the Dems’ decision to retain Nancy Pelosi as leader, but he also offered some vague “never say never” sentiments about a return engagement for his seat, saying he wouldn’t rule it out in 2012.
• IN-06: With Mike Pence looking likelier that he’s up and out of the House after this term — although whether he’s running for Governor or President is unclear — Roll Call names some potential replacements. One is a blast from the past: ex-Rep. David McIntosh, who represented an earlier iteration of this district (then IN-02) from 1994 to 2000, when he lost the Governor’s race. Other names include Wayne Co. Sheriff Matt Strittmatter, former state Rep. Luke Messer (whom you might remember from narrowly losing the IN-05 primary to Dan Burton this year), and rich guy Don Bates (who finished 4th in the IN-Sen primary this year, and has also been rumored for a Richard Lugar primary challenge).
• LA-SoS: Here’s an interesting career pivot: soon-to-be-ex. Rep. Joe Cao is considering a run for Louisiana Secretary of State. He’d face a primary against Tom Schedler, a Republican who will be acting SoS for the next year (current SoS Jay Dardenne is about to be sworn in as Lt. Governor) and will be running for a permanent slot next year. (H/t GOPVOTER.)
1) everybody faces everybody in an open primary
2) the next election will be in October 2011 for both the full term and the unexpired term
http://politicalwire.com/archi…
But like soon-to-be-ex-Governor Jim Gibbons, he’s a walking political corpse. And just like Gibbons, the GOP establishment is scrambling to find someone to primary Ensign. And believe it or not, it may not be as easy as originally thought. If Dean Heller decides to stay in The House, enjoy his comfy safe seat, and bask in the glow of having so much juice with soon-to-be-Speaker John Boehner, then the Nevada GOP has VERY limited options as to how to save the seat from falling right into Shelley Berkley’s hands.
Buerkle up by 642 votes with about a quarter of Onondaga Co. (where Maffei won by 8% on election day) absentees counted, still no Wayne Co. absentees counted (where Buerkle crushed on election day), judge ordered Wayne Co. to continue recanvass and count on Sat.
That district is going to be made even more Republican than it is now by packing the Black voters in Montgomery into the 7th district and he can’t win without those votes.
PPP has Jim Webb leading George Allen 49-45. In a matchup between Tim Kaine and Allen, Kaine leads 50-44
Albeit the lowest notch on the totem pole (policy chair or something like that). If he wins that, would it be fair to assume his interest in a Senate bid would go down?
and it looked like the following counties have FULLY reported all of their unprocessed ballots today:
Alameda (went for Harris 67-25)
Tuolumne (went for Cooley 58-31)
Yuba (Went for Cooley 58-30)
Still have about 671,594 unprocessed
Top 3 counties with unprocessed ballots (according to SOS unprocessed ballot PDF, which I have heard lags sometimes) are:
Los Angeles (went for Harris 53-40): 93,590
San Deigo (went for Cooley 53-39): 71,970 (unchanged from Saturday according to SOS and SD Registrar of voters. ROV site says they will update results today at 5 PM PST)
Orange: (went for Cooley 60-31) 54,316 (also unchanged since saturday, looks like they will also update at 5 PM PST according to ROV site)
Harris, according to the SOS, is ahead of Cooley by 30,646 votes.
I personally think its over for Cooley, he probably sees the writing on the wall, and may conceed as early as Friday
If Pat McCrory doesn’t run, who would run for the Reps? Same for Dems if Perdue retires?
I am still disappointed we lost so many state legislative seats. I listed the Democrats from the last legislature and the next one here, grouped by Congressional district. We lost a lot of seats that are in Braley’s, Loebsack’s and Boswell’s districts. I know it was a bad year for Democrats in lots of states’ legislative races, but I still feel like we should have been able to save more of those incumbents.
Today, Republican’s officially picked up their 61st seat with Bean conceding, was John Boehnor’s 61st birthday, and he became the 61st Speaker of the House.
We know that Jim DeMint spent all of 2010 endorsing Tea Party candidates, and the assumption has been that he’s angling to become Republican Leader when McConnell’s done. But has anyone considered the possibility that he might want to run for President in 2012? He’s certainly young enough and has a national profile, plus he’s in South Carolina (one of the first primary states). I don’t know if he’s made any indication at all that he’s looking to go national, but neither has Thune or Daniels, from what I gather, and there’s speculation surrounding both of them. Do we have any public statements or anything from him that completely rules out any sort of thoughts of a presidential bid, or is this just based on Beltway knowledge of the situation?
http://www.bakersfield.com/new…
He’s been waiting for Pence to move on for a while. I would be surprised if he lost the primary.
2010 was the 4th consecutive election for Senate Class 3 that Democrats failed to end-up with a net gain.
I love hearing people try to pronounce his name and saying it boner.
27% of McCain supporters, 19% of conservatives, a 74% approval rating among moderates, wow… 54/32 overall
OK-02 – Boren – 66-34 McCain
AR-04 – Ross – 58-39 McCain
UT-02 – Matheson – 57-39 McCain
WV-03 – Rahall – 56-42 McCain
KY-06 – Chandler – 55-43 McCain
PA-04 – Altmire – 55-44 McCain
AZ-08 – Giffords – 52-46 McCain
NC-11 – Shuler – 52-47 McCain
NC-07 – McIntyre – 52-47 McCain
PA-17 – Holden – 51-48 McCain
MN-07 – Peterson – 50-47 McCain
PA-12 – Critz – 50-49 McCain
Say what you want about these folks. They are amazing politicians for surviving this cycle.
I saw an article that Donald Trump is considering running for president. My gut instinct is that he would be a terrible candidate (ala ICarly, Emeg, Linda McMahon). I don’t think self-funding a presidential bid is possible, especially when Obama is likely to spend another 500 million. What do you guys think of a Trump bid?
Call me clairvoyant. I expected this all along.
Ryan Erwin is no dummy. He’s probably one of the smartest GOP consultants in the state. (That’s probably why he stayed as far away from Sharrrrrrrrrrrrrron as possible.) He knows what he’s talking about when he says “The 2 by 2 Map” is what we’ll most likely get:
– NV-01 most likely remain a heavily Democratic district, but will perhaps be more West Side based, which will be perfect for either Shelley Berkley staying put (she lives near Summerlin) or Steven Horsford running to succeed her as she runs for Senate (his district is West Las Vegas based).
– NV-02 will still be Washoe centric with enough rurals to keep it Red for either Dean Heller staying put or another prominent northern Republican running to succeed him should he run for Senate. (However, the $14 million question here is whether Bill Raggio will allow the teabaggers to make it Sharrrrrrrrrrrron friendly.)
– NV-03 will likely be a more reddish shade of purple, which fits Joe Heck just fine. It will probably span from the richest and most conservative parts of Henderson (Heck lives in the uber-exclusive Roma Hills subdivision) to the most GOP friendly Southwest and Northwest exurbs to the GOP dominant Boulder City and Clark rurals. The only thing up in the air here is whether they’ll have to draw any of Nye or Lincoln into this district. Heck will want a cozy, safe district, but The Legislature also doesn’t want to risk putting NV-02 in play.
– And finally, NV-04 will likely sport a bright shade of Blue… The only big question here is whether it will have John Oceguera’s, Barbara Buckley’s, or perhaps someone else’s name written all over it. Again, all clues are telling me this will be an East Side based district, since Shelley is based on The West Side and Heck won’t want any Democratic heavy East Side precincts in his new NV-03. What will be interesting to see if any West Side precincts are added (if so, call her Congresswoman Buckley) or if any Henderson/Silverado Ranch precincts are added (if so, call him Congressman Oceguera), and/or if some wild cards are added. (Newly minted State Senator Ruben Kihuen is a fast rising Latino star among Nevada Democrats and is quite ambitious. But then again, soon-to-be-ex-Congresswoman Dina Titus keeps making noise… Perhaps she won’t fade quickly into the sunset as many establishment Dems were hoping?)