Hopefully, this is the last update we’ll have to make about the Attorney General’s race!
We went through and did another county-by-county canvass, and we now have Kamala Harris (D) leading Steve Cooley (R) by 37,662 votes, 4,251,331 to 4,213,669. This count is about 100,000 votes ahead of the SoS.
Again we sync up the estimates, and my estimation of the number of unprocessed ballots differs from the UBR for the following counties:
- Butte: +222; the county reports 18,229 ballots left.
- Del Norte: -1,002 for votes added since November 8.
- El Dorado: -1,795 for votes added since November 9.
- Fresno: -8,687 for votes added since November 12.
- Imperial: -6,089 for votes added since November 6.
- Kern: -4,831 for votes added since November 8.
- Marin: -19,108 for votes added since November 8.
- Mariposa: -267; this is the county’s “final update.”
- Nevada: -4,730; the county estimated 4,730 outstanding on November 8 but has added 6,692 votes since then.
- Orange: -53,404; the county reports 912 ballots left.
- Placer: +27,956; vote counts have not been updated since November 3.
- Riverside: -11,300; the county reports 18,400 ballots left.
- San Diego: -44,970; the county reports 27,000 ballots left.
- San Francisco: -18,892 for votes added since November 8.
- San Luis Obispo: -826 for votes added since November 12.
- San Mateo: -26,812; this is the county’s “final unofficial results.”
- Santa Clara: -18,100; the county estimated 18,100 outstanding on November 10 but has added 18,174 votes since then.
- Tehama: -1,976 for votes added since November 10.
- Ventura: -6,142 for votes added since November 11.
- Yolo: -9,791; the county reports 0 ballots unprocessed.
Therefore, we estimate 428,179 ballots left unprocessed (compared to the SoS’ 671,594.)
The remaining territory is pretty much a wash, with our estimates having Harris gaining 47 votes to pad her margin.
As with last time, the ballots reporting have been more friendly to Kamala than before; she’s doing 0.36% better than we expected her to based on the November 13 canvass and 0.65% better than expected based on the November 8 canvass. Here are the relative swings in each county since the November 13th and 8th updates.
| County | 11/8 – 11/13 | 11/13 – 11/17 | 11/8 – 11/17 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Benito | 1.98% | 0.00% | 1.98% | ||
| Alameda | 0.75% | 0.65% | 1.39% | ||
| Orange | 1.30% | 0.05% | 1.35% | ||
| Nevada | 1.42% | -0.34% | 1.08% | ||
| Sacramento | 0.70% | 0.36% | 1.06% | ||
| Fresno | -0.08% | 1.12% | 1.04% | ||
| San Mateo | 0.55% | 0.43% | 0.98% | ||
| Monterey | 0.93% | 0.00% | 0.93% | ||
| San Francisco | 0.38% | 0.30% | 0.68% | ||
| Inyo | 0.64% | 0.00% | 0.64% | ||
| Del Norte | 0.00% | 0.63% | 0.63% | ||
| Contra Costa | 0.71% | -0.18% | 0.53% | ||
| Ventura | 0.12% | 0.41% | 0.53% | ||
| Riverside | 0.10% | 0.40% | 0.50% | ||
| San Diego | -0.04% | 0.51% | 0.47% | ||
| Merced | 0.45% | 0.00% | 0.45% | ||
| San Luis Obispo | 0.39% | 0.02% | 0.41% | ||
| Kern | -0.03% | 0.37% | 0.34% | ||
| Kings | 0.28% | 0.00% | 0.28% | ||
| Santa Barbara | 0.28% | 0.00% | 0.28% | ||
| Santa Clara | 0.03% | 0.23% | 0.26% | ||
| San Bernardino | 0.24% | 0.00% | 0.24% | ||
| Mariposa | 0.00% | 0.24% | 0.24% | ||
| Marin | 0.18% | 0.00% | 0.18% | ||
| Shasta | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.10% | ||
| Tuolumne | 0.00% | -0.08% | -0.08% | ||
| Yolo | -0.15% | 0.00% | -0.15% | ||
| Los Angeles | -0.33% | 0.18% | -0.15% | ||
| Siskiyou | -0.16% | 0.00% | -0.16% | ||
| San Joaquin | -0.15% | -0.02% | -0.16% | ||
| Imperial | 0.14% | -0.30% | -0.17% | ||
| Solano | -0.29% | 0.00% | -0.29% | ||
| Yuba | -0.35% | 0.00% | -0.35% | ||
| Tehama | -0.64% | 0.27% | -0.37% | ||
| Santa Cruz | -0.43% | 0.00% | -0.43% | ||
| Amador | -0.58% | 0.00% | -0.58% | ||
| El Dorado | -0.89% | 0.30% | -0.59% | ||
| Sutter | -1.34% | 0.20% | -1.15% | ||
| Tulare | -1.38% | 0.00% | -1.38% |
Movers and shakers below the fold.
| County | Total | Harris | Cooley | Unproc | Harris | Cooley | Margin | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles | 2,135,078 | 1,135,803 | 842,854 | 93,590 | 49,787 | 36,946 | 12,841 | ||
| Sonoma | 138,383 | 79,052 | 45,321 | 35,500 | 20,280 | 11,626 | 8,653 | ||
| Mendocino | 19,097 | 10,321 | 6,159 | 12,358 | 6,679 | 3,986 | 2,693 | ||
| Marin | 102,499 | 63,668 | 31,727 | 7,942 | 4,933 | 2,458 | 2,475 | ||
| Contra Costa | 317,509 | 169,278 | 125,519 | 16,982 | 9,054 | 6,713 | 2,340 | ||
| Monterey | 87,434 | 47,784 | 32,266 | 11,563 | 6,319 | 4,267 | 2,052 | ||
| Santa Cruz | 87,349 | 54,033 | 24,218 | 5,655 | 3,498 | 1,568 | 1,930 | ||
| Humboldt | 35,966 | 18,011 | 13,436 | 13,387 | 6,704 | 5,001 | 1,703 | ||
| Napa | 28,480 | 14,229 | 11,711 | 17,877 | 8,932 | 7,351 | 1,581 | ||
| San Francisco | 254,252 | 180,762 | 51,748 | 2,484 | 1,766 | 506 | 1,260 | ||
| Solano | 109,963 | 55,825 | 45,385 | 5,498 | 2,791 | 2,269 | 522 | ||
| Imperial | 24,344 | 11,807 | 10,247 | 3,097 | 1,502 | 1,304 | 198 | ||
| Lake | 14,980 | 6,585 | 6,430 | 5,372 | 2,361 | 2,306 | 56 | ||
| San Benito | 15,164 | 7,007 | 6,759 | 200 | 92 | 89 | 3 | ||
| Del Norte | 7,878 | 2,905 | 4,049 | 6 | 2 | 3 | -1 | ||
| Merced | 46,263 | 18,698 | 23,540 | 400 | 162 | 204 | -42 | ||
| San Luis Obispo | 100,062 | 37,545 | 52,335 | 902 | 338 | 472 | -133 | ||
| Sacramento | 392,703 | 176,034 | 184,727 | 8,774 | 3,933 | 4,127 | -194 | ||
| Orange | 842,060 | 261,964 | 506,586 | 912 | 284 | 549 | -265 | ||
| Santa Barbara | 119,282 | 51,662 | 57,104 | 6,536 | 2,831 | 3,129 | -298 | ||
| Tehama | 19,093 | 5,141 | 11,478 | 1,023 | 275 | 615 | -340 | ||
| San Joaquin | 146,789 | 60,116 | 71,201 | 6,844 | 2,803 | 3,320 | -517 | ||
| Sutter | 23,325 | 6,849 | 14,240 | 1,694 | 497 | 1,034 | -537 | ||
| Amador | 15,640 | 4,334 | 9,238 | 1,741 | 482 | 1,028 | -546 | ||
| El Dorado | 73,928 | 21,681 | 44,647 | 2,105 | 617 | 1,271 | -654 | ||
| Ventura | 247,505 | 96,609 | 132,181 | 6,414 | 2,504 | 3,425 | -922 | ||
| Stanislaus | 110,462 | 41,587 | 59,205 | 6,980 | 2,628 | 3,741 | -1,113 | ||
| Tulare | 76,763 | 22,316 | 48,368 | 3,350 | 974 | 2,111 | -1,137 | ||
| Shasta | 59,536 | 15,995 | 37,152 | 3,400 | 913 | 2,122 | -1,208 | ||
| Calaveras | 14,501 | 4,168 | 8,236 | 4,918 | 1,414 | 2,793 | -1,380 | ||
| Fresno | 174,704 | 62,671 | 98,351 | 8,813 | 3,161 | 4,961 | -1,800 | ||
| Madera | 27,635 | 8,130 | 16,872 | 5,806 | 1,708 | 3,545 | -1,837 | ||
| Kern | 163,889 | 44,444 | 103,680 | 5,371 | 1,457 | 3,398 | -1,941 | ||
| Butte | 56,937 | 20,635 | 29,626 | 18,229 | 6,607 | 9,485 | -2,879 | ||
| Riverside | 455,493 | 166,883 | 251,301 | 18,400 | 6,741 | 10,152 | -3,410 | ||
| San Diego | 838,571 | 323,600 | 435,683 | 27,000 | 10,419 | 14,028 | -3,609 | ||
| San Bernardino | 393,156 | 145,444 | 207,987 | 29,000 | 10,728 | 15,342 | -4,613 | ||
| Placer | 107,703 | 31,998 | 66,112 | 28,056 | 8,335 | 17,222 | -8,886 |
I suspect Cooley will concede within a week.
at this point is outrageous.
Does no one care about this race any more?
I’ve been following this race every single day. With such a narrow margin (30,000 out of millions of votes) I won’t feel comfortable until its all done. I still can’t believe how many times the person leading has shifted during this race. Its going to be awesome having an attorney general who is strongly in favor of gay rights rather than a homophobic bigot.
as the SoS site seems so out of date, but Harris is now up there by 29.4k as of this morning.
http://vote.sos.ca.gov/maps/at…
It’s nice to have something to feel good about before the Age of Unreason commences in Washington DC in the new year.
More interesting news from the LA Times today:
“Strikingly, almost one in five California voters said they would never cast a ballot for a Republican. Among Latinos, that rose to almost one in three. Only 5% of California voters were as emphatically anti-Democrat.
“‘I don’t know how any Republican thinks they can win in California after looking at this,’ said GOP pollster Linda DiVall….”
This is what happens when a party systematically pisses off liberals, moderates, Latina/os, African Americans, Native Americans, and LGBIT voters. Or at least, this is what happens in California.
What a hole the Republicans have dug for themselves! A huge majority of Meg Whitman voters believe that the way for Republicans to win in the future is to nominate even stronger conservatives. Yet an even larger majority of non-Whitman voters believe just the opposite. And of course the non-Whitman voters outnumber the Whitman voters by 12%. The Republicans are screwed in California.
I wonder why the tactics that are working nationally are failing so badly in California. I suppose that at least part of the answer is in demographics. Sorry to have gotten off-topic!