One more race down in the House, with NC-02 coming to a conclusion. The recount requested by Bobby Etheridge didn’t seem to change the numbers much, if at all:
Democratic Rep. Bobby Etheridge will concede to Republican Renee Ellmers, a Democratic source confirms.
With local election officials completing their recount of votes cast in North Carolina’s 2nd District race, Ellmers led Etheridge by 1,489 votes.
With Ellmers pretty clearly on the outs with the NRCC, the real question here for her survival in 2012 is how much the North Carolina legislature, under GOP control for the redistricting process, will reconfigure the Raleigh area lines in order to protect Ellmers. (You might remember that a similarly-configured 2nd also had a Republican Rep. for 2 years following the previous GOP wave in 1994, the long-forgotten David Funderburk, beaten in 1996 by Etheridge.) The current configuration of the district (which includes part of Raleigh proper) is swingy enough (R+2) that she could have a rough time in her first re-election… unless her district gets pushed further out into the exurbs and rural counties, and Brad Miller’s NC-13 becomes more Raleigh-centric.
Of all the list of outstanding races, this was the one that seemed least likely to get reversed, given that the disparity was always in the four digits and the AP never un-called the race. That leaves only four House races left to resolve, including CA-11 and CA-20, where Dem victories seem very likely, meaning that NY-01 and NY-25 are the real question marks. (UPDATE: Make that five, as a recount is still pending in the likely loss in TX-27.)
Not sure why Etheridge drew this out so long. The margin was pretty clear and the voters of the district rejected him. He has nobody to blame but himself for that.
Congrats to Congresswomen-Elect Renee Ellmers, I’m sure like all the other North Carolina Republicans in Congress she will be a solid NO vote on just about everything. I have a feeling her district will be redistricted just enough for her to win for the next decade.
Etheridge can pursue his real passion: as a bouncer in Raleigh’s hottest nightclubs. That choke hold of his is sic!
in gerrymandering. Currently, the 2nd has black parts of Raleigh and Fayetteville. Take those out and those sections will likely be split between Miller (The Raleigh part) and either Kissell/McIntyre (the Fayetteville part). There’s not much other way around it. So, they can either shore her up and let her continue to just be her awesome self or they can screw her by leaving the lines mostly untouched and in turn screw Kissell or McIntyre (very hard to do both).
The Republicans have their work cut out for them to sure up Ellmers and get rid of other Democrats. If Ellmers district is strengthened, McIntyre will probably end up safe.
Now Ethridge probably wishes that he would have put that Andrew Breitbart disciple in a headlock just to embarrass him. Ellmers doesn’t look like much of a savy politician and I can see her being disliked despite having an R+5ish district. I could see a scenario where they create something like this and she loses in 2012 because she turns out to be a walking disaster. In 2014 a normal Republican takes back the seat and keeps it for several cycles. I could be wrong but color me as unimpressed with Ellmers and her asking of Anderson Cooper if he was anti-Christian.
They’ve got to be happy, as that’s now four new pro-life women they endorsed in the House (Ellmers, Adams, Black, and Herrera) plus Ayotte in the Senate that will be added this year. Buerkle would be a fifth if she won.
It looks like the House lost two SBA Listers: Mary Fallin and Kathy Dahlkemper, whom the group supported in 2008 but ran against this year, as apparently her vote for HCR made her insufficiently anti-abortion. So the number will be either 12 or 13 depending on NY-25, plus Ayotte.
CA-11 and CA-20 have been called, both for the incumbents.
Republicans should end up with about 244 seats in the 112th and Democrats 191. I could have never imagine that we would see Democrats under 200 seats and yet we still have the same leadership. It’s unconscionable. In any other country Pelosi would have not only resigned her Speaker-ship but also her seat.
Pass a bill during the lame duck session that gives the governor a veto over redistricting while Democrats are still in power. I cant believe nobody has thought of this.