SSP Daily Digest: 11/23

AK-Sen: There’s yet another lawsuit coming out of the Joe Miller camp, this one filed in state court. It essentially rehashes claims he’s already made at the federal level, but adds two new allegations: voters without identification were allowed to take ballots in some precincts, and that in a few precincts handwriting samples suggest that the same person completed multiple ballots. Miller’s ultimate goal is a hand count of the entire race, which could delay Lisa Murkowski’s swearing-in past January. The question, however, is starting to arise: who’s paying for all this? None of Miller’s former friends seem interested any more: the NRSC has gone silent, and the Tea Party Express still offers verbal support but isn’t ponying up any money. Only Jim DeMint continues to offer any financial support (with a Joe Miller fundraising button on his Senate Conservatives website).

MT-Sen: This could complicates matters for Denny Rehberg, turning this primary into an establishment vs. teabagger duel. Two right-wing groups, Concerned Women PAC and Gun Owners of America, have already lent their support to businessman Steve Daines, who has already announced his bid for the GOP nod here.

NY-Sen: Kirsten Gillibrand has to do it all over again in 2012 (this one was just a special election), and rumors are that former Bush administration official Dan Senor, who spurned a run this time, is interested in a run next time. It’s hard to imagine, if Gillibrand could top 60% in a year as bad as this, that Senor could somehow overperform that in a presidential year.

MN-Gov: The recount is officially on. The State Canvassing Board, whom you all got to know really well in early 2009, ruled that the 8,770 vote lead for Mark Dayton is less than one-half of a percentage point and that an automatic recount is triggered. The count starts on Monday and should end in mid-December, allowing time for swearing in on Jan. 3 (unless things really go haywire). This comes after a variety of legal maneuvering from both sides, including a fast Minnesota Supreme Court ruling against Tom Emmer, in response to his desire to force counties to comb through voter rolls and eliminate votes that were “excessively cast.” No word yet on whether the Board will honor Dayton’s request for ways to streamline the process (and minimize Emmer’s chances for challenges).

MT-Gov: There had been rumors that Democratic ex-Rep. Pat Williams would seek the Dem gubernatorial nomination (potentially setting up a match with his successor, ex-Rep. Rick Hill), despite being 72 years old. He’s now saying that he won’t. Williams is so old-school that he used to represent MT-01, before the state got smooshed together into one at-large district.

CT-05: Random rich guy Mark Greenberg, who finished third in the GOP primary in the 5th this year (although with nearly 30% of the vote), says he’ll be running again in 2012. Added incentive: he says he expects this to be an open seat as Chris Murphy runs for Senate.

FL-17: Newly elected Frederica Wilson is already challenging the old ways of the House… going after the long-standing prohibition against wearing hats on the House floor. She says it’s “sexist,” saying that women’s indoor hat use is different from men’s. Wilson owns at least 300 hats, she says. (If Regina Thomas ever makes it to the House, maybe the Hat Caucus can gain some momentum.)

MD-01: Recently-defeated Frank Kratovil seems like one of the likeliest losses to run again in 2012, especially since the Dem-controlled Maryland legislature is likely to serve him up a much Dem-friendlier district (as many of our in-house mapmakers have suggested). He isn’t saying yes yet, but says he will “consider” it.

NH-02: Another possible re-run is Ann McLane Kuster, who performed pretty well in a narrow loss to Charlie Bass in the open 2nd. There have been lots of Beltway rumors that her run is imminent, and some are pointing to encouragement straight from the White House for her to try again.

NY-01: We’ve essentially finished the absentee ballot count, and the news is very good here: Tim Bishop, after leading by only 15 last night, is now leading by a comparatively-gargantuan 235 with all absentees counted. However, we’re nowhere near a resolution, as attention now turns to the court battle over 2,000 challenged ballots (Randy Altschuler has challenged 1,261, while Bishop has challenged 790). Still, Bishop’s spokesperson is saying they’re “very confident” that they’ve won this one.

NY-23: Yeesh, Bill Owens is actually saying he might vote for John Boehner for Speaker or abstain instead of Nancy Pelosi when it comes to a floor vote, saying Pelosi is too liberal. (This despite saying he voted for her, rather than Heath Shuler, in the caucus vote.) Also, not that it matters at this point, but this race wound up being closer than the Election Day count indicated: Matt Doheny picked up 1,982 previously-unknown votes in the recanvass of Fulton County, taking Owens’ margin down to 1,795 overall, and making it all the clearer that we owe this victory entirely to 3rd-party bearer-of-cat-fud Doug Hoffman.

Odds and ends: The Fix has a massive list of people considering rematches in 2012, most of which we’ve already dealt with before (including Kuster and Kratovil, above). Other names that we haven’t listed include Brad Ellsworth (either for Gov, Senate, or his old IN-08), Christine O’Donnell in Delaware (not unexpected, since she runs every 2 years anyway), Glenn Nye, and Allen Boyd (despite his losing very thoroughly to Steve Southerland).

AL-St. House: The inevitable realignment at the legislative level in Alabama finally happened, and happened all at once instead of slow drips. Four conservative Democrats in the state House changed to the GOP, bringing the GOP numbers up to not just a majority but a supermajority in one fell swoop. The Madison County (Huntsville) Clerk also announced her switch, too.

CA-AG: At this point, it’s all over but the shouting in the AG race, as Kamala Harris now leads Steve Cooley by 43,000 votes (with 500K votes still left to count). While the AP hasn’t called it, LA Weekly has decided it’s a done deal.

Chicago mayor: Roland Burris has aparently thrown his well-traveled hat into the ring for the Chicago mayoral race, as he’ll need a new job in a week or so. Supporters filed his candidate paperwork yesterday, the deadline for filing (although he has yet to officially say that he’s running). Somehow, I can only see this helping Rahm Emanuel, by further splitting the African-American vote (already divided between Danny Davis and another ex-Senator, Carol Mosely Braun).

Redistricting: There’s been some sudden buzz about switching North Carolina to an independent redistricting commission (which, of course, has to do with the GOP seizing control of the state legislature). In what is not a surprise, though, the GOP has no interest in giving up its newfound power, saying that (despite a recent PPP poll showing wide support for such a commission) there isn’t any time to move on the constitutional amendment that would create a commission (something that they generally supported up until, y’know, this month). Also on the redistricting front, check out the Fix’s latest installment in its state-by-state series, focusing today on Indiana, where GOP control over the trifecta is likely to make things worse for IN-02’s Joe Donnelly (just how much worse, we have yet to find out)… and, if they wanted to experiment with dummymanders, possibly IN-07’s Andre Carson, too.

Demographics: Here’s some interesting demographic slice-and-dice from the Washington Post: Dems increased their vote share in big counties (500K+) from 49% in 1994 to 54% this year, but lost even further in smaller counties, from 43% in 1994 to 39% this year. The districts the GOP won were disproportionately older, whiter, and less educated. And on a related note, check out these maps and the interesting ways they represent population density around the U.S. Note any similarities between these maps and where Democratic votes are concentrated?

269 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 11/23”

  1. Which GOP incumbent won with the highest percentage in a district that Obama won (shouldn’t include, being unopposed), is it longtime Rep. Tom Petri (R-WI-6) that won with 71% of the vote?

  2. people are still talking about the GOP going crazy and trying to mess with IN-07. Mitch Daniels already all but excluded that possibility in his statement that he wants redistricting to be done fairly and transparently. I’m not even sure Republicans will radically alter IN-02, they may just slip it around IN-01 and have it take in Terre Haute, which would help them hold onto IN-08 more easily.

    Anyway, what’s the deal with strange, big vote fluctuations in NY? First Bishop leads by 4000+ on election night only to have that completely wiped out by some weird tabulation error or lost votes, now nearly 2000 are added onto Doheny’s total?

    I still take the NY-23 results as encouraging. Previously Republicans like Doheny, quiet, moderately conservative, intelligent, business conservatives, won this district quite easily. The fact that even in this environment, Doheny couldn’t do it says a lot. Though I’m of course of the opinion that most of Hoffman’s voters would have abstained had he not been on the ballot. I do believe 47% still represents that strongest general election total ever for a Democrat in this district.  

  3. The problem? Also unlike DioGuardi, he won’t be running in a GOP-favorable, anti-incumbent environment w/o President Obama atop the ticket. I guess having no Paladino atop the GOP ticket helps, though. Either way, Gillibrand will easily win (unless Pataki gets in, and she’d even beat him).

  4. He just hurts Moseley-Braun and Davis, and perhaps helps Chico, as the black vote will be further splintered. No matter what, Emanuel probably won’t cross the run-off mark.

  5. but what candidates of the opposite party (non-corruption issues) HAVE YOU, NOT WOULD YOU voted/vote for, or if u were too young, what local candidates would you have.

    my list: arnold schwarzenegger (whom I still like) and that’s all

  6. How did he lose by a wider margin than someone like Tom Perriello? I’d like to chalk it up to Perriello standing up for his votes and his ideals, and that might explain some of it, but not all of it.  

  7. won’t be stupid enough to vote Boehner will he? He could just vote for someone else like Gene Taylor did couldn’t he? He’s being stupid as his district will likely be made safer, won’t it. If he votes Boehner will he go the same route as Congressman tinfoil hat from Ohio? Stripped of all committees that is.  

  8. Dayum, Frederica Wilson, 300 hats! Including rhinestone-studded cowboy hats in every color of the rainbow! And she’s demanding the right to wear them on the floor of the House of Representatives? Oh. Hell. Yes.

    Seriously, I’m lovin’ it. I mean, she’s already vaulted into my top 5 Congresspersons list. She’s currently at #4, behind Barney Frank (for the sass), Jared Polis (for the class) and Martin Heinrich (for the ass). I’m assuming she’s pro-gay-marriage considering how blue that seat is, so I’m calling it now: Frederica Wilson, gay icon.  

  9. I just realized that this might be an interesting measure to gauge a candidate’s strength and possibly future viability, at least in the same district.

    For example, Bobby Bright won by 51-49 last time and now lost about 49-51, and Tom Perriello won 51-49 last time and now lost 47-51.  This is as opposed to, say, Alan Grayson who won 52-48 last time and lost 38-56 this time.

  10. As referred to in the article about NC redistricting, Republicans challenged the 2002 state legislative district maps in a case called Stephenson which went to the NC Supreme Court.

    The court found the 2002 state legislative maps unconstitutional and set up guidelines for new maps to be drawn in 2003.  Non-VRA districts must be drawn by:

    … combining or grouping the minimum number of whole, contiguous counties necessary to comply with the … one-person, one- vote standard. Within any such contiguous multi- county grouping, compact districts shall be formed, consistent with the (one-person, one-vote) standard.

    Finally, we direct that any new redistricting plans, including any proposed on remand in this case, shall depart from strict compliance with the legal requirements set forth herein only to the extent necessary to comply with federal law.

    http://www.aoc.state.nc.us/www

    The criteria of respecting county boundaries, compactness and contiguity do not by themselves prevent the legislature from drawing a partisan plan, but they do hinder the most egregious gerrymandering schemes.

    This could mean that North Carolina will be operating under many of the same guidelines that voters just approved in Florida.

  11. If there is anyone that did not e-mail me this weekend but is interested in helping out with the Republican SSP, e-mail me at jmlee0695@hotmail.com. We will be having a group chat today at 2 CST. I need your e-mails for you to join though. If you already e-mailed me, check your e-mail shortly before 2 to find the invitation for the chat.  

  12. Whenever I try to post a link in a comment to another diary or comment on Swingstate, it fails.

    For example, I tried to post a link to DCal’s comment above on the new North Carolina redistricting standards over in SaoMagnifico’s Wyoming-rule thread on North Carolina. I created the link by switching to wysiwyg, highlighting the word “here” in my comment, and clicking the little link icon, and then pasting the URL I get when I click on the time stamp on DCal’s comment into the appropriate field.

    However, when you actually click on the link in my comment over in SaoMagnifico’s diary, it tries to open it up within the diary. Somehow “/diary/8070” got added to my link.

    This has happened to me a number of times now. What am I doing wrong?

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