Public Policy Polling (11/29-12/1, registered Democrats)
Vicki Kennedy (D): 22
Barney Frank (D): 17
Mike Capuano (D): 15
Deval Patrick (D): 13
Stephen Lynch (D): 7
Ed Markey (D): 7
Tom Menino (D): 3
Tim Murray (D): 1
Undecided: 15
MoE: ±6.2%
Perhaps the better question to ask here is who didn’t PPP poll in asking Dems who they want to take on Republican incumbent Scott Brown. Ted Kennedy’s widow Vicki leads at 22, followed by the one and only Congressman Barney Frank at 17 and Boston/Cambridge Congressman (and special election primary second-place finisher) Mike Capuano at 15. Recently re-elected Governor Deval Patrick is fourth at 13, followed by two more Congressmen, Stephen Lynch and Ed Markey at 7 apiece. Boston mayor Tom Menino gets 3, while recently re-elected Lieutenant Governor Tim Murray gets 1.
The general election half of this poll has Scotty leading all the Dems, but many of our challengers remain relatively unknown quantities, with even 44% of Dems having no opinion of Capuano, 45% having no opinion of Lynch, and 36% having no opinion of Markey.
This field is still wide open…let’s just be happy Martha Coakley isn’t seeking redemption.
much as I love Barney, and really would wish a state would finally elect an openly LGBT person, I believe Frank would not only be our weakest candidate but I highly doubt as well that he would be willing to give up not only his high seniority but his comfortable house seat. Mike Capuano is probally our best hope to recapture this seat for the Dems. I would love Vicki to be a Senator but her being the nominee against Brown would create a Washington annointed candidate versus a “average” guy candidate which I fear Brown would win.
i can’t imagine him winning, but he was recently re-elected albeit narrowly and is probably the best known of any of his rivals. at this point it’s essentially a name recognition game, so it seems like he should be doing a bit better.
But who knows if Vicki even wants to run or if she could win. Are best bet would probably be Capuano.
This election will be a real test of whether political scientists or strategists are right.
According to the poliSci crowd in Presidential year elections, Senate races specifically gravitate towards the party’s performance and ticket splitting becomes less likely. For some reason, this does not happen as much in governor’s (intuitive) and House (not intuitive) races.
MA and WV will be a big test in 2012.
The best way to win the race is to run a generic D, who will actually campaign unlike a certain AG. You need to make this race all about Brown/national Republicans.
Barney’s personality is so off-putting that it will tamp down the gender gap which was key to Patrick’s win.
Patrick isn’t running, and Frank probably won’t. Kennedy is a complete wild card, as would be either of her stepsons (Ted Jr and Patrick.) All that we can really take from this now is that the nomination is there for the taking, up in the air for whoever earns it.
I’m beginning to think that Frank may actually win the primary if he runs. The base drives primary elections, and the base loves Frank more than any of the other Dems. Intriguing, though, is that only 38% of the Democrats surveyed are self-described liberals, and a full 11% are self-described conservatives.
Barney Frank will be 72 in 2012, a bit old to be starting a Senate career, although it’s not unheard of. He’s ranking member of Finance at a key time in history. He knows he is polarizing and seems to have no problem with that. I would love to have him in the Senate, but I don’t see it happening at all. I’m sure there will be some negotiating among the MA House delegation to see who runs for Senate and who keeps their House district because MA is losing a seat.
I think Brown will lose by at least 8-12 points. The dynamics of this race make it very similar to the Chafee-Whitehouse race in 2006. A moderate Republican in a very blue New England state who is personally well-liked but still a god-damned Republican. But Brown is not nearly as liberal as Chafee, nor does he have the history in his state that Chafee and his family had in Rhode Island. And this is a presidential year, which 2006 was not. Chafee lost 53-47. Don’t see how Brown can do any better than that and really should do much worse.
that Capuano would be the strongest candidate? Don’t get me wrong, I love my congressman and would probably be willing to cut off an appendage if it meant that he would get to serve as a Senator, but what exactly is it about him that makes him so formidable. I understand that he’s a good campaigner and really tough, but so was Virg Bernero. Plus, Capuano is extremely liberal, even for a Massachusetts Democrat, and I don’t see how that makes him more electable than any of the other mentioned candidates. What specifically makes him stronger than someone like Kennedy or Market?
General sentiment seems to be Capuano’s the early front-runner, no? If that’s the case, I expect a close race, but, unless Capuano can severely run-up Brown’s low unfavorables, I suspect Brown can pull it out. I think Brown wins as long as his favorables are a net +5 or greater.
any democrat in this race will depend on how well the national ticket does in 2012, which in itself will, of course, vary with how well the economy keeps recovering.
Obama doesn’t bring the unique coalition to the polls here like he does in other states. Turnout will definately be high because its a presidental year, yet this wont be as significant as other states. This is because MA is an older, whiter (much whiter), and already heavily democrat state. Whereas say in NC and VA Obama brings people to vote that wouldn’t otherwise, in MA there is already high turnout and has fewer of the people that Obama has unique appeal to.
Brown did sneak in from a special election, but it was a high profile affair in a politically accute state, so it wasn’t a total fluke.
Nominating Frank would insure that every R in the state is motivated and scare off even some Dems.
Democrats can definately win here, but people are fooling themselves if they’re expecting an automatic, 10+ pick up.
He might end up flaming out on the campaign trail, he might not, but get a look at this performance. You can’t deny he wouldn’t be an effective Senator:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…
I’d also guess that Capuano will be heavily pressured to run by the Dem establishment because eliminating his district will make every other Boston-area district safer without having to axe an incumbent, and all of the guys in adjacent districts with greater seniority will want that extra blue spread around to them.
Markey and Frank seem pretty happy with their ridiculous seniority in the House at this point, I don’t think Kennedy would be up for a run or would actually have anything to offer besides her husband’s name. Menino and Lynch are non-starters. Patrick’s too busy being governor to run.
You can also make the argument that Capuano would’ve had a shot in the 2009 primary (and been a better GE candidate than Coakley by default) if the eastern MA machine had actually mobilized for him, instead of just letting Coakley play the inevitability card. I doubt they’ll make that mistake twice, especially in a presidential year, and I think western MA would accept Capuano once they figured out how liberal he was. It’s the more Catholic, blue collar parts in the middle that I’d be concerned about, but those areas will probably go for Brown anyway.