SSP Daily Digest: 12/9

AK-Sen: Tomorrow is now the expected date for the ruling from a state superior court judge on Joe Miller’s suit contesting 8,000 ballots (over spelling) and also alleging various instances of voter fraud. There’s an injunction in place that keeps the race from being certified until this case (which started in federal court and got moved) has been decided, although the judge is conceding that whatever he decides, it’s likely to get immediately appealed to the Alaska Supreme Court.

News also comes today that Joe Miller wound up finishing the Alaska Senate race with over $900K still in hand, an outrageous sum given how cheap the Alaska media market is. Much of that was intended to go toward post-game legal expenses, and some of that may have been the same problem that plagued other teabagger fundraising dynamos (like Christine O’Donnell and Sharron Angle), of not being able to find any ad slots to spend the money. Also worth a read: a wrapup over at Daily Kos from the Scott McAdams campaign’s media guy, especially his recounting of the adventure he went through to find the Incredible Hulk tie that appeared in McAdams’ TV spot. Finally, we’ll let Kagro X get the last word in on the state of the Alaska race:

Joe Miller keeps fighting on, like a 90 year old Japanese commando on a forgotten island…

FL-Sen: The Florida GOP primary is looking like it’s going to be a very crowded affair after all: Adam Hasner, the former state House majority leader, has suddenly bubbled up over the last few days as a possible if not likely candidate. If the name sounds familiar, he considered and decided against a run in FL-22 this year; he’s one of the few Republicans from the Gold Coast and, in addition to being a key Marco Rubio ally, could tap quickly into Jewish Republican fundraising circles.

PA-Sen: It’s looking more and more like Bob Casey Jr.’s challenger is going to come not from the U.S. House but the ranks of the state Senate; the question, though, is which one? The newest name to surface is Kim Ward, who says she’s starting to test the waters. She’s from Westmoreland County, maybe the most conservative of the once-blue, now-swingy collar counties around Pittsburgh, giving the GOP hopes they might eat into Casey’s strong backing in SW PA.

RI-Sen: Don’t rule out soon-to-be-ex-Gov. Don Carcieri (who’d probably be the only Republican who could make this an interesting race here) from Senate race consideration. The 68-year-old two-termer says he isn’t ruling it out, but wants to take some time off before thinking about it.

VA-Sen: George Allen is definitely acting candidate-ish now; having laid down markers against possible primary challenger Corey Stewart, now he’s moving on to direct attacks on Jim Webb (who, of course, may or may not be running for re-election), over voting against the earmark ban and the horrible sin of supporting collective bargaining rights for public safety officers.

LA-Gov: Still no word on whether a strong Dem will get into the Louisiana governor’s race, but The Daily Kingfish takes a very interesting look at the field of possible challengers to Bobby Jindal, whose numbers indicate he’s popular but not bulletproof. They handicap the odds on a collection of possible challengers; interestingly, the guy they give the greatest odds to is ex-Dem John Kennedy (who presumably would take on Jindal while still wearing the “R” badge, although I guess anything’s possible in Louisiana, where party labels seem to get taken on and off like so much laundry). They also float the possibility of a Mary Landrieu run, in that she may be eager to bail out of Washington before her next re-election in 2014.

WV-Gov: With a pileup of half a dozen Dems interested in the 2012 (or 2011?) gubernatorial race, who’s running for the GOP? The Beltway rumor mill seems, this week, to have Shelly Moore Capito more interested in going for the Gov race than the Senate or staying in the House. While she’d be the undisputed heavyweight, a few other second-tier GOPers are making their interest known (although it’s unclear whether they’d bother if Capito got in). Most prominent is ex-SoS Betty Ireland, one of the few GOPers around who’s held statewide office, and who had briefly considered running for Senate this year. State Sen. Clark Barnes is the only Republican who has committed to the race so far.

CO-03, VA-11: Republican Keith Fimian, who came within a thousand votes of Gerry Connolly, is publicly saying he’s interested in another run. He wants to wait and see what the district looks like after redistricting before committing one way or the other, though. One other rematch that may or may not be on the table is Dem John Salazar in Colorado’s 3rd, who narrowly lost the reddish district to Scott Tipton and “is open” to a rematch.

House: Politico takes a quick look at the Republicans that Democrats in the House are most likely to target in 2012. I don’t think any of the names (mostly surprise victors in Dem-leaning swing districts) will surprise any devoted SSP readers: in order, they discuss Chip Cravaack, Ann Marie Buerkle, the Illinois Five (especially Bobby Schilling), Blake Farenthold, Renee Ellmers, and Allen West.

Votes: The DREAM Act passed the House today (although it looks like, so many other pieces of legislation, its next stop is a slow Senate death by neglect). It’s an interesting vote breakdown, with 38 Dems voting no (mostly Blue Dogs, and mostly ones on their way out the door) and 8 Republicans voting yes (almost all the non-white GOPers, along with the newly-liberated Bob Inglis). Most puzzling “no” vote may be Dan Lipinski, whose safe blue IL-03 is significantly Latino, and getting more so every day.

Census: This is a strange video to go viral, but I’ve been seeing lots of links to this new video from the Census Bureau today, a catchy little explanation of what reapportionment is and how it works. Also a helpful Census Bureau release today: a release schedule of all the various parts and pieces that will be necessary for the redistricting process. The big enchilada, of course, is the reapportionment breakdown, which will be released at some point before the end of the year, although they’re still not specifying which date. According to today’s release, state numbers on race (down to the block level) will be out in February, so I’m sure there’ll be flurry of activity with Dave’s Redistricting App at that point.

174 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 12/9”

  1. I’ve been working with the GA state map and I really don’t see any way to put together the two D districts in Southern/Southeastern GA, If Kingston is willing to take on part or all of Savannah (which I seriously doubt) then Barrow’s district could swing to the GOP, but I’m betting the legislature will have to shore up Bishop’s district rather than target him despite the narrowness of Bishop’s victory this year.

  2. I’m really surprised to see Allen going after Webb already, unless they are afraid that Kaine would be a stronger candidate and are hoping to get Webb mad enough he’ll run for re-election just to stop Allen from regaining his seat.

    I still see Webb as a retirement, or perhaps even as Secretary of Defense (I’ve heard he’s lobbying HARD for Gates job), since he is very unhappy with life as a Senator and after being SecNav going out as SecDef would be a nice capstone to his career.

  3. He got caught napping this time after smacking Tipton around in 2006. He’s very personally popular, his family has lived in the district since practically the dawn of time, and he just has an ability to connect with people. Also, from what I hear, Tipton is a weak campaigner who rode the wave more than anything else. If Salazar goes for a comeback, he has at least a 50/50 chance, assuming he doesn’t take anything for granted like he did this time.

  4. Reps. Lipinski and Schrader are going to catch hell for voting no on that bill. Something tells me southwest Chicago and Salem are really not going to appreciate those votes.

    I almost think they’re fortifying themselves against redistricting, though. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if the 2010 Census finds Oregon gained that extra 20,000-something people to give it a sixth district, which would almost definitely be more conservative than OR-05 and which Schrader could very well end up redistricted into (possibly along with Rep. Walden, as in a number of the six-district Oregon maps drawn by myself and others). Lipinski could end up representing redder territory too, particularly if Illinois needs to create a new Latino VRA seat in Chicagoland.

  5. Not that worried about Carcieri. His approval ratings have taken a hit since 2006 and he’s way too conservative to be elected to national office (big difference between that and state office). I’d be more worried about Cranston Mayor Allan Fung or Warwick Mayor Scott Avedisian.

  6. Lipinski and Visclosky need to go. There is always so much griping about southern blue dogs but you got dicks like these two from safe districts that vote against us all the time. Seriously Lipinski voted against HCR, Visclosky against this, cap and trade, financial regulation (from the right), and a lot of other stuff. Heck I saw a lot of southern blue dogs on the yea column, albeit leaving ones. We should put all the energy we can into getting these two out. Plus Visclosky is corrupt, though he’d probably be replaced with someone else corrupt, the area is rough but at least get someone who’d vote with us reliably. It would be hard to knock Visclosky out, he’s a machine and no one wants to cross him. But still us progressives should still try to get these two out. Who are some strong challengers for Lipinski?  

  7. congressional maps for IL after a Democratic gerrymander (the first time they’ve had the trifecta since the 60’s, I believe).  I hope that it’s easy to turn all of the swing districts into Dem districts.

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