Census Reapportionment Predictions Thread

At 11am Eastern on Tuesday, the Census Bureau will release population data which will tell us how the House of Representatives will be reapportioned. What are your predictions for which states will gain seats – and which will lose? As a guidepost, you can check out Election Data Services’ most recent projection here. Have at it!

223 thoughts on “Census Reapportionment Predictions Thread”

  1. Gain:

    AZ +1, CO +1, FL +2, GA +1, NV +1, TX +4, UT +1

    Lose:

    IL 1, IA 1, LA 1, MA 1, MI 1, MO 1, NJ 1, NY 2, OH -2

    No change:

    CA -0

    The only difference from projections is that Colorado gains a seat. This is mostly because I was playing around with Dave’s App using new census data and realized that I could easily make an 8 district map of CO using the new population estimates. I think it’s been overlooked in the projections.  

  4. I wonder how much people classifying themselves as “other” will go up with the movements among teabaggers to put American in the other spot. Will we get racial numbers tomorrow, or just congressional numbers?  

  5. that had NY losing two seats.

    I think it’s funny that there are already multiple people in the Commerce Department who know all of the answers.  

  6. Texas +3

    Arizona +1

    Florida +1

    Georgia +1

    Nevada +1

    South Carolina +1

    Utah +1

    Washington +1

    Illinois -1

    Iowa -1

    Louisiana -1

    Massachusetts -1

    Michigan -1

    New Jersey -1

    Pennsylvania -1

    New York -1

    Ohio -2

    Sometime last year, I had a dream in which I got my hand on the reapportionment numbers and saw that Texas gained four seats, California stayed even, and Rhode Island lost one. Most of the time dreams I had of things that were actually going to happen, those dreams did not come true. Maybe that will be the case this time.

    I also had a dream of the 2006 elections early that year in which I watched the governor results. I saw results of the governor races and Democrats were winning every state I saw, in ABC order from Alabama to Illinois, when I woke up after jumping up and down seeing that California went back to the blue side. Four years too soon…

  7. Defying the odds, Massachusetts wins back its 11th district. Democrats on Beacon Hill decide to draw a swingy MA-11 centered on Worcester County. Lying about my age, I run and win, becoming the first GOP congressman elected from MA since 1994.

    But seriously…..

    Texas +4

    Florida +2

    Arizona +1

    Nevada +1

    South Carolina +1

    Utah +1

    Oregon +1

    Washington +1

    Ohio -2

    New York -2

    Massachusetts -1

    Iowa -1

    Louisiana -1

    Michigan -1

    Missouri -1

    New Jersey -1

    Pennsylvania-1

    Minnesota -1

  13. I’m not as familiar with American census policies. So the Department of Commerce already conducted the census and has decided how many House seats each state gets already? That’s awfully fast.  

  14. California picks up seven seats like in the 1980’s. Marin County even grows fast enough to FINALLY have its own seat in the U.S House and the State Senate. California grows faster than people believe, due to the immigrants and the fact that our climate is irresistable (although the writer of the song “It never rains in Southern California” is probably getting sued for libel right now.)

    Seriously though:

    Pickups

    Washington +1

    Nevada +1

    Arizona +1

    Texas +3

    Georgia +1

    Florida +1

    Losses

    Massachusetts -1

    New York -1

    New Jersey -1

    Ohio -2

    Michigan -1

    Illinois -1

    Missouri -1

    Cali, at least you are not on the losses list.

    I am not predicting big population shifts although there was growth in the first half of the decade.  

  25. HUARGHBLAHAL get us to what we want! (Also, the last three digits of your national population estimate are meaningless; at least the last two are.)

    Also, I love how irrelevant this is to everyone else; Wonkette didn’t mention it, and it’s not being mentioned on any of the big three 24/7 news networks.

  28. Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, Missouri, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania lost seats. New York lost 2, darn!

    California lost nothing though.  

  31. Gains:

    Arizona 1

    Florida 2

    Georgia 1

    Nevada 1

    South Carolina 1

    Texas 4

    Washington 1

    Losses:

    Illinois 1

    Iowa 1

    Louisiana 1

    Massachusetts 1

    Michigan 1

    Missouri 1

    New Jersey 1

    New York 2

    Ohio 2

    Pennsylvania 1

  32. For all of the negatives w/r/t reapportionment in 2012, remember the FL commission if run even close to legitimately we Dem’s should gain about a half dozen seats minimum in FL, so I think in terms of the house it all washes out.

    As for the electoral college, well that’s another story…

  38. its a +5 EV gain for McCain: (360-O and 178-M).

    Assuming those base lines for 2012, the GOP needs 92 EVs to flip. On the one hand, that seems like a tall order compared to Gore and Kerry who needed less than 20 for the same goal; but, in reality, the GOP only needs to flip back FL, IN, NC, OH, VA and CO and find 3 more EVs from NV, NH or NM to win at exactly 270.

    The Dems could go on offense in MT, either of the Dakotas, AZ and maybe MO, but all those are very tough.

    As such, the real tippoing point states (in my view) are really CO and NV.

  42. Being bordered heavily by Ohio (-2) and NY (-2), PA only lost 1.  It, along with NY, are the 2 states I’m most interested in seeing the population shifts in.

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