To follow up the series of posts on Colorado, I’ve posted a few recent presidential elections in the state (courtesy of the New York Times). Each map comes with some brief analysis.
Boosted by a Democratic National Convention held in Denver, Senator Barack Obama wins a thorough victory in the ultimate swing state of 2008. The Democratic candidate does especially well in the Republican-leaning suburbs of Denver – winning several outright and dampening margins in Douglas County and Colorado Springs.
More below.
Written off early as a sure Republican victory, Colorado surprises pundits in 2004 with a surprisingly strong Democratic performance. It is one of the few states where Democrats do better than in 2000 as they pick up the 2000 Ralph Nader vote.
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Governor George W. Bush performs well throughout the Rocky Mountains in 2000, and Colorado is no exception. With Green Party candidate Ralph Nader pulling off a substantial bloc of liberal voters, Mr. Bush even cracks the Democratic “C” that composes the Democratic base of Colorado.
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Conservative Colorado returns to form in 1996; President Bill Clinton loses the state by the barest of margins as conservative Ross Perot voters go Republican. Republican Bob Dole wins based off Republican strength in Colorado Springs and rural Colorado.
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Surprise! – reliably Republican Colorado votes Democratic for the first time in a generation, and for the first time in a competitive race since the days of Harry Truman. To be fair, this map somewhat overstates Democratic strength: Republican margins are dampened by Ross Perot’s strength amongst conservatives.
–Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/
I usually don’t do state wide commentary–more interested in redistricting but since I have a CO comment here goes.
Colorado is classic or representative of recent elections. The Democratic vote is anchored in Boulder & Denver. There are some university hotspots. In CO there is ski resort democratic hotspots that we also saw in Utah and I guess perhaps in a few other Rocky Mountain states.
Then you have rural counties with higher hispanic numbers plus in Co the old mining/steel mill town/county of Pueblo. That’s your democratic base with several large suburban counties that swing back and forth that are crucial deciding the statewide winners.
My interest is CO3 which is the linchpin of redistricting in CO. The GOP is strong around Mesa County and in the west while the democrats win the ski county of Pitkin. Plus they win in Pueblo county.
I looked at the 2004 & 2010 congressional races. They are near mirror images except there was a 3% district wide move to the GOP candidate except there was a 6% move towards Tipton in Pueblo county. That was the McInnis pattern when he was congressman in CO3. He ran well ahead of the democrats in Pueblo county and basically had the seat locked up. Tipton is not there yet-obviousily-but Salazar’s weakness there is not a good sign for future races. That plus the Mesa area is growing twice as fast as the rest of the district.
Can you also compare how Bennet did this year in comparison to Obama in 2008?