Merry Christmas to everyone who celebrates it, whether on 25 December or otherwise. While waiting for the ham to be done, I drew up a map of Nevada with four shiny new districts, just what the U.S. Census Bureau ordered.
The way I drew it, we’re basically looking at a 2-2 map, with three if not all of those districts being somewhat “soft” (potentially competitive in the right cycle) due to the quirks of Nevada geography, politics, and geopolitics. Some people on other threads (the Missouri one, for example) have suggested that Gov.-elect Sandoval and the Republicans will probably be satisfied to shore up Rep.-elect Heck somewhat in exchange for letting the Democrats have their way, to an extent, with the new NV-04. I’m inclined to agree. Also, drawing a safe 1-3 map for a rapidly blueing state like Nevada is not terribly easy.
I don’t usually go out of order, but we should probably start at the top here (geographically rather than numerically) because Nevada is an oddly shaped state.
NV-02 (green, safe lean Republican)
Rep. Dean Heller, a Republican, is thought to be prepping a Senate bid against Sen. John Ensign, the scandal-tarnished Republican incumbent whose unreliability and moral flexibility has been a thorn in the side of Republican leadership in Nevada and in Washington for several years now. If he decides to forgo a bid for statewide office in favor of running for reelection, I doubt he’ll have a problem here. Washoe County may be swingy, but Heller is popular, and any Republican can run up crushing margins in the cow counties. If Heller runs for Senate in 2012, though, Republicans and Democrats alike will want to put a lot of effort into recruiting top-tier candidates here.
NV-01 (blue, safe Democratic)
Vegas, baby! This is Rep. Shelley Berkley’s district, and she’s considered the likeliest Democrat to run for Ensign’s seat in 2012. I figure she’ll vacate, and it’s just as well, because although Nevada isn’t a VRA preclearance state, the Department of Justice may lean on the incoming Sandoval administration to ensure a minority-majority seat. Latinos are actually about a quarter of Nevada’s population, they’re the fastest-growing demographic, and it’s pretty easy to draw a compact Latino-plurality district. This district is actually 28% white, 14% black, 6% Asian, and 49% Latino, going off 2008 population estimates, and I’ll bet dollars to doughnuts it’s outright Latino-majority in the new census data. Sandoval himself may do okay here, but it’s a safe Democratic district.
NV-03 (purple, likely Republican)
Rep.-elect Joe Heck edged Rep. Dina Titus, flipping the present “fair fight” incarnation of this district from blue to red, last month. One of Sandoval’s top priorities will be shoring him up. Adding a bunch of cow counties and consolidating the district’s hold on white-collar Clark County precincts is a decent way of accomplishing that. While Sharron Angle might lose this district, and Titus could conceivably take it back, it now tips pretty firmly in Heck’s favor.
NV-04 (red, likely Democratic)
One of the big reasons why the current NV-03 is a swing district is that it includes both Democratic and Republican areas along with some subdivisions that go both ways (no, not like that, most of those are pretty heavily Democratic). I gave most of those Republican areas to my NV-03, or at least I tried to, while NV-04 takes over most of the Democratic areas, centering around Spring Valley. It’s a mostly suburban district, though it includes just a bit of rural Clark County up Highway 95. Titus or another strong Democrat with a suburban base should be pretty solid here except in particularly gruesome cycles, although a socially moderate or libertarian Republican could potentially win it.
As a Christmas bonus, I’m also going to repost my revised and updated map for Missouri, which shrinks to eight districts in 2012’s redistricting, without much commentary:
This isn’t necessarily the most favorable map Democrats can possibly get, but it’s probably the most favorable map they’re likely to get in 2012. (There’s a whole discussion about this on the other diary.) It’s probably a 3-5 map, with Democratic Rep. Russ Carnahan’s MO-03 (purple) likely playing host to a deathmatch between Carnahan and Republican Rep. Jo Ann Emerson of Cape Girardeau in 2012.
A few quick notes: Democratic Rep. Lacy Clay’s MO-01 (blue) is 48% white, 47% black, remaining VRA-compliant. I was of the school of thought saying it couldn’t be done without throwing Carnahan overboard, but there you have it. Carnahan’s share of St. Louis County consists almost entirely of precincts that voted for then-Sen. Barack Obama in the 2008 presidential election, so I think Mr. Local Boy has a good base there. And Republican Rep. Todd Akin’s home in rich white Town and Country remains in his district of MO-02 (green).
Not much to add here. Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver in MO-08 (slate blue), renumbered from the current MO-05, still doesn’t get a VRA district, but he’s a good politician who is popular with both white and black Democrats in Kansas City. I resisted the urge to dismember Republican Rep.-elect Vicki Hartzler’s MO-05 (yellow), renumbered from the current MO-04, because I didn’t think the Republicans in the Missouri state legislature would let such a plan get to Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon’s desk.
Hope everyone is dividing their time as they see fit between family, friends, and politics. Thoughts on either map are welcome and appreciated.
Your NV maps looks very much like what will happen.
I also hope that Nixon can find the leverage he needs to create a fair fight district and hopefully have Carnahan win.
The topic has been talked (almost) to death, but regarding Missouri I think a 5-2-1 map is a best case for Dems. I think their first map will be a 7-1 map that cuts up KC Carnahans base. It stands zero chance, but it will set the terms of debate as protecting Cleaver over Carnahan. The members being protected (IMO) in order of importance are 1. Clay, 2. Akin 3. Cleaver and Carnahan at #9.
In the ned I think the 5th gets a liTtle less urban and liberal, but not enough to matter till ’14 at the earliest. Emerson’s district will come north to swallow MO-3 except for STL city (which will fill out MO-1’s population. Carnahan will keep enough of his South County base (U-City & the west end too maybe) to make it a decent fight w/ Emerson in ’12, but going forward it’s a lean R to prob R seat.
This could be a win/win for many Jeff City GOP powerbrokers who have no love for Emerson (though they sure miss her widower). I actually wouldn’t be surprised to see Jo Ann defeated in a primary from a jefferson county tea partier and then carnahan lose either in ’12 if Obama doesn’t do well (and stay in till Nov!) In Missouri or in the ’14 midterm.
it looks good–very likely we see something just like that. If we get an indication that Berkley is running for US senate-before redistricting is done-we might see a more hispanic seat. To insure that the 4th is safe D we see the third being a touch more GOP with a swap of precints.
The democrats control the legislative bodies but the hispanic legislators hold the balance. Its 11-10 democratic in senate with two hispanic members. In the house its 26D-16R but there are 6 hispanic house members. I think we see a 55% hispanic and as noted this 49% seat could be that high with updated data. I think 2R-2D is the likeliest NV result. I think everyone will be pleased with that.
I also agree PJR on MO. Likely 6-2 with Carnahan getting the short end. You might see a fight between Adkin and Carnahan but the GOP will be heavily favored in that seat.
I’d wager a guess that Obama actually won your NV-02. He came without 88 votes of winning the current NV-02. Jill Derby might have won that part of the district in 2006.
Bold Heller, italics Derby. From CNN.
Carson City: 9,416 7,882
Douglas: 10,679 7,752
Elko: 7,362 3,611
Eureka: 408 225
Humboldt: 2,688 1,501
Lyon: 8,128 5,929
Pershing: 779 652
Storey: 917 831
Washoe: 53,771 58,236
White Pine: 1,641 1,371
Total: 95,789 87,990
Heller goes from winning the 2-way vote 53-47 to winning 52-48.
However, Washoe has grown since then. Reid actually beat Angle in Washoe by a similar margin to Derby’s win against Heller, so let’s use those numbers for the sake of argument. That brings Heller up to 105,234 votes and Derby up to 100,017. Heller now wins the 2-way vote 51-49.
While I think Heller is safe in this seat for now, it’s a prime pickup opportunity once it comes open.
I think in NV it would be hard to draw anything other than a 2-2. I hope Titus runs in NV-4, she deserves another chance.
Hello,
Could you contact me at danny.yadron@wsj.com?
Thanks much,
Danny
Why on Earth would Democrats consent to screwing Carnahan like this? I still have no idea where the screw-Carnahan meme came from, but it has to stop. Republicans should be happy with a 5-3 map in a swing state like Missouri still is (when folks actually vote, that is). There are just too many Democrats in Missouri to make a 6-2 map that isn’t a dummymander/obvious Republican gerrymander.
You can easily draw a map that keeps Carnahan & Emerson (and Akin & Cleaver & Clay) and makes everybody except the three rural Republicans–Graves, Hartzler & Luetekmyer–happy. And even then, Graves will be fine, and only Hartzler & Luetekmyer have screw ’em potential. And since they’re the newest members of the delegation, it’s hard to see how this isn’t the most reasonable scenario.
Cleaver & Clay’s districts remain mostly as is, centered on urban KC & STL, respectively. Carnahan’s backs out of STL a bit but grabs Dem-leaning Iron & Washington from Emerson while Emerson takes more of the mid-south Ozarks region. The Springfield-based 7th grows a bit, while Graves’ district expands across northern MO (much as you have it). Instead, Hartzler and Luetekmyer get combined in a Missouri River-centered district that stretches from the eastern KC exurbs to wherever Akin’s expanded STL-suburban-exurban district ends. The two relative newbies are screwed, a 5-3 map is born and everybody except the two screwees are happy.
You do know you put Shelley Berkley in NV-04, right? That may be a problem if she decides to run again. Since she lives in the Summerlin area, she obviously wants to represent the district where she resides… But she’s also always been proud of representing The Strip. And since she’s now besties with the likes of MGM Resorts, Caesars (formerly Harrah’s) Entertainment, and even Wynn Resorts (!!!), I don’t know if she’d be willing to give up most of The Strip to the new NV-01 person.
But perhaps if Shelley makes it clear she’s running for NV-Sen before Passover, as she told Jon Ralston in November, perhaps all is forgiven. We shall see. 😉